Economy Nearly Falls Into A Recession In October?
Economy Near Recession? October industrial production report pushed the Arouba Diabold Scotti (ADS) business conditions index to -0.783 on October 22nd. It’s very close to the recession line which is -0.80. Obviously, we need to watch the November industrial production report very closely. If it worsens, it could push the readings in November into recessionary […]
What’s Wrong with Retail?
Another quiet day for stocks, but the retail sector is suddenly coming apart ahead of Black Friday. Don takes a deep dive into what’s going on here and the opportunity it presents…
S&P 500 The Most Overbought Since January 2018
Extreme Euphoria Develops Stocks are way overbought. Many were too early in predicting a correction because they expected this to be a normal period where stocks get overbought and then selloff 3% to 5%. In fact, stocks are getting extremely overbought which means an even bigger decline is coming. As of Friday, the 14 day […]
Q4 GDP Growth Expected To Be 0.39%
Weak Industrial Production Growth October industrial production growth was weak even if you don’t include the weakness caused by the GM strike. More than 2/3rds of manufacturing sub-sectors were in contraction. This the broadest, but not the deepest manufacturing recession of this cycle. It’s not as deep because energy prices didn’t collapse. Yearly mining growth […]
Santa Clause Rally Brought About By Euphoric Traders
Euphoria Brings Another Record High For Stocks Investors and traders are getting euphoric as they are completely ignoring the bad economic data and hoping there will be a trade deal and a cyclical recovery. Normally, I’d agree with the bull thesis. But even I’m having trouble with grasping how much stocks have rallied in the […]
Retail Sales Growth & Consumer Comfort Fall
Jobless Claims Spike Bears may have gotten excited by the spike in jobless claims, but it is irrelevant. It doesn’t mean anything bad is happening to the economy. Especially just because a few states including the large states of Pennsylvania and California estimated their results. If results are estimated, they can be incorrect. We will […]
Overbought Signals – Yet S&P 500 Hits Another Record High
S&P 500 Somehow Hits Another Record High The stock market has hit stall speed in the past few days as it has barely moved. Extremely overbought levels haven’t catalyzed a correction like many expected. Not that there have been any big increases in the past few days either. In the past 5 trading days, the […]
Household Debt Is Likely Not An Issue For The US Economy
Household Debt Increases $92 Billion Q3 NY Fed household debt and credit report was released this week. It’s a great look at the health of the consumer even though it’s a bit dated. We’re trying to figure out how strong holiday spending will be and this report is from the summer. That being said, usually […]
Disney Increases 7.32% On Successful Disney+ Launch
Another Relatively Flat Day: Stocks Refuse To Correct S&P 500 has been nearly flat for the past 4 days. It increased 7 basis points on Wednesday. That was enough for a new record high. When investors discuss the stock market having a horizontal correction, they don’t envision new record highs being hit consistently. The market […]
Medical Care Services Inflation Matches Cycle High (5.1%)
Housing Market Might Be Fine Housing market is pivotal because business investment is weak. Currently, the economy can’t handle another blow as GDP growth already might be below 1% in Q4. And, the housing market ended its 7 quarter decline in Q3. It should be strong in Q4 at least. Even with the increase in […]