This Sell-Off Was Baked In the Cake
People are hunting for the headline that caused this morning’s sell-off. There isn’t one that explains it. The move was already written before the open, in the structure underneath the price. We’ve been on top of this since the shift back on the 3rd of June. By the time the bell rang, the structure was […]
Why Some Traders Refuse Winning Trades
A winning trade on paper isn’t enough. You still won’t take it. Not because you won’t understand it. The math is simple, and I’ll walk you through every step. You won’t take it because of what it asks you to feel, and that turns out to be the hardest thing in this business. Here’s a […]
A $5 Ticker With the Biggest Lithium Mine on Earth
There is a mine going up right now in the Nevada desert that sits on the largest known lithium deposit in the world. It’s called Thacker Pass. The US government has put a $2.26 billion loan behind it and taken an equity stake, because Washington wants to stop depending on China for the metal that […]
Google just grabbed $80 billion it doesn’t need.
Google has more than $100 billion in cash sitting in the bank. Yesterday it went out and raised $80 billion more. Read that again. A company that does not need a dollar just sold a mountain of stock to raise money it already has. When I saw it, I had the same reaction as a […]
Wall Street is running a trade retail cannot see
The Grand Canyon of Volatility Wall Street is running a trade retail cannot see. It is the reason the index is dead while single stocks rip and tank. The S&P moving eight points on Monday when it was priced for forty-six is one symptom. The VIX sitting at year-to-date lows while Nvidia, Intel, and Tesla […]
This AI rally trained traders to watch the wrong half of tech
This AI rally trained traders to watch the wrong half of tech. For two years the only thing that mattered was semiconductors. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom. The chip names did all the work, traders learned to chase them, and the rest of tech not part of the AI infrastructre roll out got written off. After Antrhropic […]
A $4.5M Bet Nearly Doubled in 4 Hours
At 9:49 am this morning a single order hit the tape in Bitdeer, and it wasn’t small. 30,000 call contracts, the June 26 strike at $16.50, around $1.55 apiece. That’s a $4.5 million bet in one print, which tells you right away this isn’t a mom and pop order. But the size isn’t what got […]
This chart looks just like Nasdaq before it broke out
Dell just paid me a 98% winner this morning. I closed the last of my position, flat going into tomorrow’s earnings. The stock has nearly tripled in four months. The thesis was not complicated. It was relative strength 101. I was looking for tech to outperform out of a low, the way it always has […]
Being right in Micron isn’t the same as making money
Most Micron call buyers are right today and still losing money. Micron is up 17% on the session and the calls are green. But the bid-offer spread on those options is a full dollar wide at an implied volatility of 117%, which is the market saying it has no idea where Micron settles. That combination […]
Why a 1% Stock Move Produces a 200% Trade
Every options trader builds butterflies the same way. You take the current price, build the trade around it, and hope the stock doesn’t move. That’s the standard butterfly. It works fine when you need stillness. The problem is the overnight window isn’t about stillness. Stocks drift overnight. They press toward walls and the standard butterfly […]