My 2 Cents: Nvidia Reports Tonight.
Nvidia reports after the bell tonight. Tonight every commentator, YouTuber, and financial media outlet will have a prediction. The financial media will be bullish because their advertisers need them to be, and the YouTubers will ask you to make them a bicycle clown. If you get in the way of that noise, it is going […]
The Big Circle of Life Trade
Blackstone is financing Google to compete with CoreWeave. Google has its own money. Why does it need Blackstone’s? That’s the question that should have stopped you when you saw the headline. Most people didn’t ask it. Here’s the trade. Blackstone, the private credit shop, lends to Google. The money goes toward building out cloud-based AI […]
Gamma Squeezes Cut Both Ways. Most Traders Only See One. Preview: I
Intel was down 5% in the premarket this morning. That’s not unusual on a bad headline day. What’s unusual is the run leading into it — 5%, 6% consecutive days. The kind of run that gets retail comfortable. So Intel opens down. What does retail do? Most traders see this kind of pullback and think […]
I’m paying $47,800 to a company I’m shorting
UnitedHealthcare charges me $47,800 a year for family health insurance. Family of five. My copay is still $80, and I am also actively short UnitedHealthcare and have been for a while now. Every time the ticker pops up on my screen I scream “die already” at it, and they send me the bill anyway. That […]
Nobody is talking about this Fed pivot Preview: And the Fed Watch tool is the proof.
The financial media is wrong about the Fed. Pull it up yourself. The CME Fed Watch tool shows the live probability of every possible Fed rate decision based on what the futures market is actually pricing in, and seven months out, the probability of a rate hike is higher than the probability of a rate […]
Apple is now pricing like a meme stock
I was looking at the Apple options chain this morning when I stopped and said it out loud: this is freaking Apple. This isn’t AMD. This isn’t Intel. This is freaking Apple. And it just started showing an inverted implied volatility skew. That sentence is going to mean nothing to most retail investors, so let […]
The market called PayPal’s drop 12 hours before it happened
The options market called PayPal’s drop twelve hours early. The financial press told you PayPal got crushed this morning on weak guidance. The reality is the market had priced PayPal to drop five dollars the night before the earnings report came out, and that is exactly what happened. The drop was not news, it was […]
Why the GameStop-eBay deal is already dead
GameStop just offered $56 billion to buy eBay this morning. Read that sentence again. An $11 billion company is trying to buy a $48 billion company, half cash and half stock. The cash side alone would eat GameStop’s entire $20 billion line of credit and still need a private equity rescue. The pitch is that […]
The Drunken Sailors Are About to Get Their Bill
The drunken sailors are about to get their bill. Tonight Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet report earnings after the close. Combined these four companies are spending $650 to $700 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone. That is not a typo. That is more than the GDP of most countries being poured into data centers, […]
This Morning’s Selloff Is a Gift
This morning’s selloff is a gift. The average intra-year drawdown of the S&P 500 is negative 14 percent. That means on average, every single year, the market falls 14 percent from its peak at some point before recovering and closing higher. Like clockwork. So don’t get bent up about it or view it as a […]