The market came into today like a coin flip. Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole loomed large, and momentum readings sat at pure equilibrium — a rare setup where the next shove could have sent us ripping higher or crashing into support. That uncertainty made patience the most valuable trade this morning.
Key Takeaways
Momentum right at equilibrium
- The S&P 500, Russell, and major ETFs were sitting flat, hugging key moving averages.
- That tells you there’s no conviction — just a market waiting for a catalyst.
Powell’s speech as the driver
- The Fed chair was the only story. Rate cut odds have been cratering over the past week, and the market was hanging on every word.
- If Powell bends, equities rip. If he holds the line, expect pain.
Nvidia and semis under pressure
- Nvidia’s chip delays for China created micro headwinds that compounded the macro risk.
- With SOXL hovering at critical levels, any slip from NVDA could drag the entire sector down.
What I’m Watching
I’m watching volatility products like UVXY and FNGD — both are my tells for institutional de-leveraging. If they spike, hedge funds are pulling back. I’m also tracking energy names and emerging market flows, since any Powell-induced dollar move will ripple into commodities and EM ETFs fast. And Nvidia’s 50-day moving average? That’s a line in the sand — if it breaks, semis and the Mag Seven take the hit.
This isn’t a market to guess in. It’s a market to react in. The first move after Powell’s speech might be a head fake — the second one will tell the truth. Keep your stops tight, listen to the tape, and don’t chase the noise.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE
