While Wall Street’s glued to CPI hopes and whispering about rate cuts, we’re staying focused on where money’s actually flowing—and it’s painting a loud, defensive picture. Here’s what stood out this morning:
Key Takeaways
Big Tech still carrying the weight—watch the imbalance
- Apple, Nvidia, and AMD are doing the heavy lifting while the Russell 2000 can’t catch a bid.
- This is a narrow rally—and narrow rallies tend to roll over fast when momentum breaks.
Volatility creeping back in—premium sellers take note
- With seasonal chop ahead, this is a window for selling calls or credit spreads on extended names.
- Implied volatility is inching higher, and we’re seeing signs of institutional hedging.
Small caps look sick—especially under the surface
- The RUT is under pressure while retail, consumer discretionary, and regional banks bleed.
- This isn’t healthy rotation—it’s a defensive shift in plain sight.
What I’m Watching
Watching FNGD and UVXY as my canaries in the coal mine—if either spike, brace for unwinds.
Keeping tabs on CPI and PPI prints this week, along with Fed speakers leading into Jackson Hole.
Stock-specific: Palantir, METC, FTK, and Apple remain top momentum names, but any cracks there could domino fast.
August loves to break hearts—don’t get lazy. The signals are flashing, the tape’s thinning, and this isn’t the time to assume you’re bulletproof. Stay sharp. See you at 12:30.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE
