It’s Friday. The dogs are barking, the charts are moving, and Nvidia just tapped its 50-day EMA. That’s the reversion I’ve been waiting for. This is the kind of morning that separates the traders from the tourists — chaos, noise, and a dozen setups flashing all at once. Perfect.
Key Takeaways
Nvidia hits the reversion zone
- The chip giant tagged its 50-day EMA after a 30-point slide — exactly where opportunity lives.
- Expect $1–4 intraday swings today as traders chase reversions on the three-minute chart.
Negative momentum confirmed
- Momentum flipped dark red yesterday — we’re officially in a negative channel.
- Breadth continues to collapse: 67% of stocks under their 50-day, 52% below their 200-day.
Volatility returning fast
- VIX back above 20, UVXY testing its 20-day EMA — the first real volatility pulse in months.
- Every crisis we’ve tracked since 2020 started with this same setup, so caution is warranted.
Leverage unwind in progress
- FNGD and FAZ are both above key moving averages, signaling pressure on big tech and banks.
- This is where the real damage begins — not in panic headlines, but in quiet forced selling.
Liquidity still the wild card
- Global central banks are playing defense. BOE, BOC, and PBOC all hinting at new moves.
- Policy can stop the bleeding — but until then, raise cash, hedge, and watch the plumbing.
What I’m Watching
All eyes are on Nvidia and Tesla — both prime candidates for zero-DTE fireworks. I’m anchoring VWAP levels, looking for reversions above key pivots, and using the anchored VWAP to spot institutional defense zones. Breadth deterioration tells you traders have stepped aside; I’m watching for insider buying or a policy pivot to mark the eventual bottom.
Seasonality doesn’t matter — liquidity does. Forget the “Santa Claus rally” talk. Follow the math, respect the momentum, and stay nimble. Markets don’t crash in a day; they grind down through exhaustion. Trade what’s in front of you, not what you hope to see.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE
