The lights went out at Garrett’s new house — literally — thanks to Baltimore Gas & Electric. So, broadcasting from his childhood home, he opened the session with humor, caffeine, and a heavy dose of market reality. Third Friday option expiration meant volatility, opportunity, and plenty of traders chasing their tails before the bell.
Key Takeaways
Bank stress resurfacing — but not new
- Regional banks (KRE, Zion, WAL) continue to wobble on loan quality and reserve fears.
- Despite yesterday’s hit, many are still up on the month — a sign of how distorted sentiment has become.
Futures traders leaning on volatility
- Tony Rago joined to talk “Golden Setup” mechanics — five to six setups possible today, but only for disciplined traders.
- Volatility above 20 means it’s easy to overtrade; Rago’s rule is simple: when risk outweighs reward, step aside.
Golden levels driving the NQ
- Tony’s 26-level retracement rule remains the heartbeat of Nasdaq futures trading.
- It’s mechanical, probability-based, and immune to outside noise — a roadmap for traders focused on process over prediction.
Third Friday: trader’s playground
- Every option expires today — the ultimate reversion environment.
- Big names like Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon could see violent intraday swings around VWAP and the 8/20 crossover.
Defensives showing strength
- Keurig Dr Pepper and Walmart lighting up the charts as money rotates into safety.
- Crossovers on the 3-minute charts matter more than narratives — Garrett’s watching for those quick “bid moments.”
What I’m Watching
Bank volatility is the core theme. With reserves slipping below $3T and CRE debt coming due, pressure is building. Gold’s setting new records, HYMC got fresh insider buying from Eric Sprott, and defense names like Leonardo (DRS) and Lockheed are primed for rebound setups. Meanwhile, Sphere is topping out — Garrett called for downside spreads there. Keep eyes on VIX above its 50-day; volatility feels like a setup, not a relief.
Electricity or not, the market’s current is alive — and unpredictable. Third Fridays are built for traders who thrive on controlled chaos. Keep your charts clean, your emotions out, and your caffeine levels dangerously high.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE
