One of the three trades I called on Schwab yesterday already hit.
I went on live yesterday morning and broke down a tape that is all kinds of wrong right now.
Big tech names swinging like penny stocks while the VIX sits there half asleep, and money rotating out of the crowded AI trade and into the defensives.
Then I laid out three specific trades built around it. Here’s where they stand:
- Costco (COST): The rotation play. COST had been decimated alongside the other defensives, and I called it for a quick bounce. It worked. The stock popped almost 2% today and the trade hit. That one is basically done, and it’s green.
- The bond trade: A bearish setup on long-term Treasuries, built on sticky inflation, oil near $95, and a debt load that keeps growing. Still working, and it has room to run into August. The exact structure is in the session.
- The mega-cap tech trade: The one I care about most. A name that just raised tens of billions in stock at the highs, and my read on why that grab for cash is a warning, not a flex. The setup is live right now and the thesis is playing out in real time.
One honest caveat: this aired yesterday morning, so the COST move has already happened, and I’m telling you that up front.
But the other two are still live, the levels are still on the table, and the dispersion read underneath all of it is exactly what’s driving this tape today.
Watch the full breakdown and you’ll get all three, the exact structures, and the levels I’m watching next.
To your success,
Don Kaufman
