In last week’s Tale of the Tape, I pointed out how bulls captured a beachhead as technology emerged as the top-performing sector of the week.
This was a small bright spot in an otherwise abysmal tape for the bulls, and an opportunity to start turning the market tide in the near-term.
But last week didn’t have the follow through that bulls needed to see, so as we begin the final full trading week of April, here’s what I want to see in order to calm the bears down…
You Can Run, But Can You Hide?
The real estate sector (XLRE) was the surprise outperformer last week, as it did better than its peers. Energy (XLE) was a close second, but either way, those are still decidedly bearish money flows.
As you can see, consumer staples (XLP) and utilities (XLU) are still running the table on the longer-term timeframes, and going back to the start of the fourth quarter, technology (XLK), which is the largest sector in the S&P 500, is the second-worst performer behind basic materials (XLB).
There’s a big debate going on right now as to whether tariffs will be inflationary. If we want to act based on what the market is saying, it’s not so cut and dry.
But the market is unequivocally saying an economic slowdown is in the cards. You simply don’t get utilities and staples as the leaders in a strong tape.
Until tech, consumer discretionary, or communications start showing up in my Sector Leaders table, we have to exercise some caution.
I’ll keep you in the loop,
-Gianni
