The baseball playoffs are starting, I’ve got a fever, my daughter’s got pink eye, and yet… the market doesn’t stop. Let’s get into it.
Key Takeaways
September defied history
- Statistically, it’s the worst month of the year. Instead, the S&P ripped +7.5%, Nasdaq +11%, and the Dow logged its fifth straight green quarter.
- The “September selloff” didn’t happen — liquidity pushed equities higher instead.
Rotation is in play
- Defensives lagged badly while tech, comms, and consumer cyclicals led the charge.
- Today’s smart money flows will tell us whether Q4 sticks with high-beta momentum or shifts toward conservative sectors.
Liquidity remains king
- Global liquidity is now at $186 trillion — that’s the tailwind.
- Shutdown noise doesn’t matter much, but leverage signals (FNGD, VIX) are the real stress gauges to watch.
What I’m Watching
The Russell looks strong on the surface, but breakdowns are mounting in consumer defensives, banks, and cyclicals. Gold keeps flirting with record highs, oil’s chopping under pressure from supply headlines, and insider buying in names like Marvell has my attention. Meanwhile, Chinese tech (JD, WB) continues to show momentum — but remember, those flows can flip quickly if liquidity tightens.
Markets keep reminding us that liquidity trumps headlines. Seasonality says one thing, but the tape and the flows are what matter. Stay sharp.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE
