The CPI print was supposed to calm markets—but once you dig into the details, it’s a mess. Food, utilities, and core services are still sticky, momentum is diverging, and insiders are sitting on their hands instead of buying. That tells you this isn’t the clean “soft landing” Wall Street wants to sell—it’s a market held up by liquidity and crowding into the same handful of names.
Key Takeaways
Inflation is stickier than the headline
- Food up 3.2%, natural gas up nearly 14%, and utilities ripping higher.
- That’s structural, not transitory—and it makes the Fed’s 2% target a fantasy.
Momentum masking divergences
- The Mag Seven and semis keep grinding higher, but the Russell chops around.
- That’s crowding and leverage propping up the tape, not broad participation.
Insiders aren’t buying
- Execs are selling into strength instead of buying into rate-cut optimism.
- When insiders don’t believe in the rally, you shouldn’t either—at least not beyond short-term trades.
Trade setups in play
- Nvidia reclaiming the 20- and 50-day MAs with a reversion setup toward $180.
- Names like Eaton and Winnebago showing cyclical momentum, while egg producers like CALM highlight supply-driven inflation trades.
What I’m Watching
The Fed meeting next week and “third Friday” options expiration are the real catalysts. If the market is pricing in cuts but insiders aren’t buying, that’s a disconnect worth respecting. I’m also watching semis for continuation, pipelines for structural energy plays, and any ghost prints that flag institutional moves. Agricultural names like CF and CALM stay on the radar, but I’d rather play defined-risk spreads than chase volatility.
This isn’t a healthy inflation report—it’s a warning dressed up as progress. Liquidity props the tape today, but when insiders sit out, you’d better know what game you’re playing. Trade the momentum, but don’t believe the fairy tale.
Until next time,
Garrett Baldwin
TheoTRADE
