Blake Young, Author at TheoTrade

How I Sized Every Trade on the Deadest Tape of the Year

June 3, 2026

Hey trader, The fastest way to wreck a small account has nothing to do with picking the wrong direction. It comes from trading the right idea in the wrong size. You can be dead right on the chart and still give back a month of gains on a single oversized loss. Wednesday’s tape was as flat as it gets. That made it the perfect classroom for the one habit that keeps an account alive when nothing is moving. Here is the exact math I used to size every trade off my stop. I will also give you the simple framework you can run on your own account before your next click. Being Right Is Only Half the Job Plenty of traders pick their contract count by feel. A green streak makes them add. A red day makes them either freeze or double up to win it back. The position size

How I Turned Gold Into a Risk-Free Trade

May 30, 2026

Hey trader, I was in a gold trade for about ten minutes this morning. By the time it tagged my target and paid me, I had zero dollars left at risk on it. It started out as a $122 risk. I shaved that number down the whole way up the chart until there was nothing left to lose. That part is the piece nobody really shows you. You probably set your stop once when you click in. Then you watch your open profit come and go for the rest of the trade. Or you grab that stop and drag it around every time a red candle spooks you. Then the market knocks you out a tick before the thing finally runs. I want to walk you through the version where you do neither. This gold long is about the cleanest example I have got. I will give you the entry,

Home Builders Could Drop 15%

May 28, 2026

https://youtu.be/EjXlHjio3Nw The S&P 500 just printed new highs on an Iran ceasefire headline. Blake Young is not buying it. He sees home builders set up to fall 15%. One stock already shows the damage. The Rate Trap Tightening On Housing Blake started with the bond market. Prices gapped down, tested the lows, then failed to hold a new high. That failure points the 10 year Treasury yield back toward its annual highs. Higher rates land hardest on one group. Home builders live on borrowing. Every buyer trying to finance a house feels it too. Blake flagged a number most traders are ignoring. Consumers are defaulting on credit cards and unsecured loans at a multi decade high. Higher rates pile onto an already stretched consumer. That pressure flows straight into housing demand. Toll Brothers Is Showing The Damage Blake went straight to Toll Brothers because the financials show the story clearly.

How I Made $225 on the Only Trade Worth Taking All Morning

May 28, 2026

Hey trader, Wednesday’s session handed most traders a slow bleed. Charts that looked like setups, fills that turned into stop-outs, and a tape that punished anyone trying to force volume. I closed the morning with one winner. Eighteen pips on the euro, $225 on a single eMini. That was it, and that was enough. The reason it worked when six other charts looked just as good is the part most traders skip. Two of my three primary signals fired on the same candle, the close confirmed it, and the macro story backed the direction. When those three stack, you click. When any one is missing, you wait. Here is exactly how that played out on the 6E. The Tape Going In The session was flat. Painfully flat. Gold was the only thing moving with conviction, ripping from beacon to beacon as the dollar bled out. The ES sat on fair

It Was All About Camp Floyd Back Then

May 23, 2026

Hey Trader, Roughly 40 years ago, my dad, my brothers, and I went camping in an area called Camp Floyd. It is a fascinating little place that was home to the Camp Floyd Pony Express Station, also known as the Fairfield Station. Situated in the small town of Fairfield, Utah, just a short distance from the military camp, the station was originally an adobe inn built by settler John Carson. It was no ordinary stop. Unlike the small, sparse desert shacks typical of the Pony Express route, the Fairfield Station was a comfortable two-story adobe and frame building. It served as a hotel for notable historical figures, including Mark Twain and Sir Richard Burton. It was an important and notably luxurious waypoint for riders. What began as an interesting and historic place to camp soon became something far more meaningful. One of my older brothers, feeling adventurous, decided that he

How to Trade Growth Hiding Right Below Our Southern Border

May 21, 2026

Hey trader, An ETF representing an entire country just put up 29% over the last year. It is not a tech stock. It is not a meme name. It is Mexico. The story has been hiding right below our southern border the whole time. Almost nobody in the US is paying attention because we are too busy watching the next tweet move the S&P 20 points in either direction. Capital is moving. Factories are being built. The currency has already repriced. Here is the deal. The chart is sitting in a five-month consolidation with a clear target overhead. The capital flow story explains why the chart looks the way it does. The options chain is paying enough premium to make the trade work even if the breakout takes another six months to show up. All three pieces matter. That is what I want to walk through. Forget the Politics. Follow

I Made One Good Trade Today Amidst a Slaughterhouse

May 19, 2026

Hey trader, Today’s tape was the kind that quietly takes traders apart. Failed Bollinger Band breakouts on the ES… …A Nasdaq signal that triggered already a third of the way to its target. The Russell breaking out and immediately reversing. Six small trades, $10 here, $13 there, all of it commissions in the pocket of someone else. If you traded the same chop I traded after 10:30 this morning, you know the feeling. The signals look real, the math says take them, and the market hands them back to you in pieces. But the day wasn’t a loss. One trade right at the open paid $174 on the official call and over $250 for traders who sized it as a channel breakout. That one trade carried the entire session. In a market this difficult, the difference between a green day and a red one is recognizing which setup deserves your

Why I’ll Always Take the Coin Flip

May 16, 2026

Hey trader, A 50/50 trade with a 5-to-1 payout is one of the most rational bets you can find on a chart. Skip enough of these and you bleed out slowly while never taking a single “bad” trade in your life. Yesterday morning, I shorted the euro at 1.1645 with a 7.5-pip stop and a 33-pip target. That put the trade at better than 4-to-1, and I was willing to be wrong on it more than half the time. Here is the trade, the math behind why it got the click, and the rules I use to spot setups like this before they leave the screen. A Coin Flip Is Not the Same as a Bad Trade The phrase “coin flip” gets thrown around in trading rooms like it means reckless. It should not. A coin flip is only a bad trade when the payoff matches the odds. 50/50 with

Someone is rigging the gold market. I watched it happen.

May 14, 2026

Hey trader, When you place a trade, you assume the prices on your screen are real. Real buyers. Real sellers. Real money willing to transact at those levels. That assumption can cost you. This morning on micro gold, I watched an algorithm fake those prices in real time. It dangled fake orders above and below the market like bait. Every time price got close, the bait moved. Traders who didn’t know what they were looking at walked right into stops they never should have hit. Here is what I saw, what’s actually going on, and how to spot it before it costs you on the next trade. A Quick Word On What I’m About To Show You Every futures contract has a list of pending orders waiting to fill. Buy orders below the current price. Sell orders above it. The list sits there for any trader to look at while

The best trade I made today was the one I didn’t take

May 12, 2026

Hey trader, The Nasdaq gave me a clean short signal today. The setup included a Bollinger Band breakout, a one count reversal with follow-through, and a clear target. I didn’t take it. The reason had nothing to do with the pattern and everything to do with the math behind it. The stop was 99.5 points wide. On a $5,000 account, that puts the trade outside my band of acceptable risk no matter how clean the chart looks. Here is the framework I used to make that call, and how to apply it in your own account. A Signal Is Not the Same as a Trade A signal tells you direction. The math tells you whether the trade fits the account in front of you. Position sizing is what connects the two. Skip that step and you end up taking valid signals that push you past your risk limits. One bad

	Today
08.00	OJ & Mac \| Overnight review \| FREE SESSION 08.30 09.20 Don Kaufman \| Early volatility 09.20 10.30 Jeff Bierman \| Market structure 10.30 11.30 Brandon Chapman \| Ghost Hour 11.30 12.30 Gianni Di Poce \| Macro overview 12.30 13.15 Corey Rosenbloom \| Options tactics 13.15 14.00
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14.00	Tony Rago \| Futures Trading 14.00 15.00
15.00	Blake Young & Mac Holbrook \| Market wrap 15.00 16.00

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