The market felt the pressure today as the odds of a Fed rate hike have been moving higher in recent weeks and are set to announce on Wednesday. The initial weakness turned to strength today as ARKK began to turn the corner during the day. Is this the bottom? The early UOA pointed to bullish setups (SABR, UAL, DAL, CTXS, XLI, BITO, MARA)…
Are we feeling the fear?-sectors-vol inversion-skew jumps-bonds gone bid-correlation sp100-spuz volume Magnitude of Moves-SPX 3 deviation -265pts-QQQ 3 deviation -28.32pts-Crypto Cracks FOMC (aka da FED)-crush markets to fight inflation?-markets are hooked on the juice-declining economic indicators-soften hawkish stance SPX Expected Move —–last week — 85.74 (expected move)–next week– 149.58
It’s tough to know where to start discussing today’s market action where the equity futures reversed near 4% from the high of day to the closing low, making “this time it’s different” with broken trend and support levels on the daily chart. Beyond that, we have a large bearish sell-off after-hours in Netflix (NFLX) on earnings and a major bearish headline taking Peloton (PTON) to fresh new lows. This and more in tonight’s TheoTrade evening video update…
The recent selling in Treasury bonds should be a warning sign for stock investors. Not only is the sell-off a response to Fed policy, but it also accompanies sluggish returns historically. On a positive note, as yields stall, this is precisely the point where gold should outperform…
Join Don as he explains why many of the indices are facing full blown corrective territory. See how the recent bond selloff has caused, “The Monsters of Tech” to be off some 2.6% in today’s trading session. What else does all of the sell side activity mean for this marketplace? Tune in to tonight’s video and find out….
Market Price Action and Volatility– –Big Moves, tight range (ATR is flyin’) –High Probability Range will be broken in forthcoming days –Low VIX indicates range complacency –earnings will take a back seat until BIG Tech Levels of critical concern– –Fear and Loathing under /ES 4500 –Hold /NQ 15600 or drop 1k points! –the ARKK effect Risk Factors to Equity Markets- –inflationary readings –Oil prices –Bonds selling off / rates rising –Crypto decline spilling over –lack of correlation –low SKEW- 133.85 SPX Expected Move — –last week — 75.98 (expected move) –next week– 85.74 (4 day trading week)
Friday morning will bring us earnings reports from leading financial stocks including Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), and JP Morgan (JPM) among others that could impact the broader financial sector and XLF. In tonight’s video, we highlight the strong selling that continued in tech shares including TSLA and NVDA and plot the current plan for both TLT and Yields which are also in play for the end of this week into next week…
Tune in to tonight’s video as Don explains why today’s trading session was such a slop fest. Even with some recent rallies, price action today proves where market conviction truly lies….
A key question to ask right now as we trade into mid-January is whether “this time is different” or we’ll just continue drifting higher along the same uptrend price targets. In tonight’s video, we take a higher perspective study of the weekly charts of the major indexes and leading stocks outperforming the market, namely in the Financial and Energy Sector (XLF and XLE)…
The NASDAQ was looking to breakout of its multi-month range today on the opening gap and sell-off. However, the breakaway gap was averted as it rallied late. JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon shares outlook of 4 rate increases this year by the Fed and discussed whether they can ‘engineer’ a soft landing for the economy. (BMY, NVDA, AMD, KBH, ARKK, MU, AGNC, UBER)…
