What Copper Is Telling Us

Copper, gold, Bitcoin, and stocks all cracked on the same day. Blake Young says demand is vanishing. The S&P 500 is sitting right on support. Blake sees a head and shoulders pattern forming with 80 points of downside. Copper is the tell. It’s testing its 200 day moving average, and Blake reads that as manufacturing and growth stalling out. The money is already hiding. Consumer staples led every sector with a 2.76% gain on a day Bitcoin dropped 4%. Blake is trading both sides of that split. Tonight’s video shows exactly how: General Mills jumped 6.75% and trades near 10x trailing earnings with a 7% yield. Blake sees it running to 42. NextEra broke out of its channel. Blake wants a pullback to 80 to sell puts for 2.33%, with a target of 90. Freeport fell from 80 to 64 and broke its 200 day moving average ahead of earnings.

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Markets at a Crossroads

https://youtu.be/uA70O95t_88?si=IzVtqbAxPNoykmJd The market bounced this week. The semiconductors never delivered the rip your face off rally a real bottom needs. That leaves us at a crossroads heading into the back half of the week. On the surface, the SPDRs look fine. A couple days of selling barely dented SPY, and it sits right back near its all time high. The Nasdaq tells a different story. The QQQ dropped hard over the last two weeks, with strong selling last Friday. Today the Nasdaq climbed 300 and some odd points. That bounce landed right on the upper edge of the expected move. Underneath, the tape looks broken. The advance decline line keeps swinging between 60/40 and 50/50. We’re still in a negative beta regime. When the S&P 500 rises, a pile of stocks trade the opposite direction. JPMorgan, Netflix, Walmart, and Target all sat lower today. The Nasdaq is dragging the rest

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The Bottom Signal Hiding in Utilities

https://youtu.be/frQoc2PtCag Consumer staples led the market last week. Utilities led the week before. Gianni Di Poce sees that defensive rotation as a sign the bottom may already be in.  You see, defensive flows tend to show up at or near the market’s cyclical bottom. In tonight’s video, he names the growth sectors and stocks he wants leading the next leg higher. His case starts with a washout on Sunday night. Nasdaq futures took out last Friday’s low the moment trading opened, and they’ve rallied ever since. Gianni reads that move as another flush of overleveraged hands. The VIX spiked last week. Now it’s getting crushed again. The pullback also reset the board. The Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow all dropped back to where they traded in mid September. The Dow then broke out of a descending price channel. Gianni treats that pattern as a continuation signal inside an uptrend of

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What $100 Oil Decides This Week

https://youtu.be/U6RbyXdbSAY Crude oil sits right at $100 a barrel. Corey Rosenbloom calls it a key psychological marker for the entire market. He believes that one price decides whether the S&P 500 rallies or breaks this week. Corey game plans the S&P 500 every session. On Friday, he flagged an oversold market pressing into support near 7680. Monday delivered the rally he mapped. The S&P 500 bounced off that support shelf and hit his initial target. The bigger trend still points up. Corey sees higher highs and higher lows, with the pullback forming a flag inside the uptrend. Inflation keeps pressure on that setup. CPI came in at 3.7%. Oil continues to climb on the daily chart. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh holds the next meeting on October 27th and 28th. Corey expects a pause, with a rate hike more likely in December. Amazon, Micron, and Intel led Monday’s bounce. Chip stocks

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Why Buying This Dip Could Burn You

https://youtu.be/-o05W9ad3pk Volatility futures flipped into backwardation today. The VVIX headed into the close north of 110, a level I call the foamy zone. That inversion means the market sees more risk over the next 33 days than over the next 61. When the curve inverts like this, the probability of outsized moves in the SPX goes up by an order of magnitude. The S&P 500 dropped 1.25% on Friday. The NASDAQ fell almost 3%. At least $1.4 trillion in market cap disappeared today. My guess is the real number sits closer to $2 trillion. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 sat basically at its all time high. Two days of selling later, I’m already hearing clients ask which dip to buy. I’m telling them to slow down. The advance decline line sits at 50/50. Traders are still thinking and rotating instead of dumping everything at any price. Financials finished green today.

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Why Bonds Just Beat Stocks

https://youtu.be/9jiuBRdBUko The bond market flashed a warning today that I haven’t seen in a very long time. Traders would rather own bonds than the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ. The S&P 500 dropped about 90 handles into the close. Everyone will blame the hot CPI report. I see CPI as the fuse. The powder keg was already sitting there. Bonds sold off right after the CPI print. That’s exactly what you’d expect when inflation runs a little hot. Then the bond market turned around. It recovered the full point it lost and tacked on another half point. That rally makes no sense on an inflation scare. Traders were hedging. The real selling came straight out of semiconductors. I’ve warned again and again that nothing saves this market if semiconductors come down. I call today’s action duck and cover. Money rotated out of semis, the NASDAQ, and the S&P 500 to

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Where Tech Money Rotates Next

https://youtu.be/0Q5njx5oxcE Microsoft and Palantir were all but written off earlier this year.  Since the start of the third quarter, they’ve been the two best performing mega cap tech names. Gianni Di Poce thinks Tesla could be next. It’s pretty much the only mega cap that hasn’t run in 2026. The S&P 500 is trading right where it was on Friday. Gianni sees the index digesting sideways near its all time highs while the money moves underneath. Semiconductors are taking a breather. Software caught the bid today as chips traded lower. Gianni isn’t bearish on semis. He calls them dead money in the near term and expects this correction through time to lead to another bullish outcome. He also flagged a warning sign. Utilities were the strongest sector last week, and Gianni reads those defensive flows as a rally starting to mature. He doesn’t think the market has topped. He does

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Where SPY’s $13 Box Breaks

https://youtu.be/bVSQrkKUU9M Brandon Chapman found a $13 box around SPY this week. Bank earnings land tomorrow morning. Brandon thinks those reports could turn that tight range into an accelerator. Today was Columbus Day. The S&P 500 usually finishes higher on this holiday, with most of the week’s gains coming on the day itself. This year broke the pattern. Brandon leaned into the seasonal tendency with the S&P 500 sitting in positive gamma territory. He took a long and looked for a close at the prior high. The trade didn’t work. A rally right before the close got a few traders near break even. The bond market was closed, and volume ran at 50% to 60% of normal. The S&P 500 still couldn’t finish higher on a light tape built for an upward bias. Tomorrow kicks off earnings season. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup all report. Brandon also spotted a

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5 Stocks Built For Higher Rates

https://youtu.be/90I1dYf_JtU Today’s 30 year bond auction just flashed a warning. The Treasury had to offer 5.62% to sell the bonds, and demand still came in lighter. Blake Young says borrowing costs are heading higher from here. Yields now sit at levels last seen in 2001 and 2002. Blake isn’t waiting for the squeeze. He screened 3,000 stocks for companies that don’t need to borrow and found 44 that qualify. Tonight’s video breaks down the auctions and his top setups from that list: The 30 year yield jumped from 5.31% to 5.62% while the bid to cover slipped from 2.6 to roughly 2.5. Blake reads that as a steepening yield curve and higher long term borrowing costs. Blake’s screen requires positive fixed charge coverage, growing free cash flow year over year, and long term debt to capital between 0% and 40%. He considers anything above 60% overleveraged. First Solar fell from

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Why Bond Auctions Now Move Stocks

https://youtu.be/iC6hArNZ–M The S&P 500 stopped caring about economic data. It’s trading off bond auctions now. Today’s 10 year note auction went well. The S&P 500 rallied off its lows right alongside it. That first hour this morning was tense. Stocks had very little to do with it. The bond market sold off hard into the cash open. The 10 year yield pushed to 5.364%, closing in on 5.4%. Yields crossed 5% about two and a half trading weeks ago. They’ve shot straight up to 5.3% since then. Then the note auction hit at 10 AM Pacific. Bonds bounced off their lows and dragged the S&P 500 up with them. Bonds still finished lower. The S&P 500 closed down about 20 handles, a move of less than 0.3%. I don’t care about that move. I care that stocks now trade in tandem with bonds, and you know you’re in trouble when

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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