https://youtu.be/5XAV62YDp1M The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both closed at record highs today. Gianni Di Poce traced the buying to a source few traders are watching. Money is pouring into the US from Europe and Asia. Gianni says those funds have nowhere else to go. The timing gives it away. Gianni points to heavy buying overnight and early in the morning, when Asian trading peaks and European markets wrap up. The currency market backs him up. The dollar has turned higher against the yen in recent weeks. The euro just fell to its lowest level in months. Picture a fund manager in Europe sitting on billions of dollars. The bond market is a bloodbath right now, and that capital still needs a home. Only the largest US companies can absorb orders that size. Gianni explains that a fund can buy $50 million of Apple without leaving much of a mark

https://youtu.be/6VSH7pNONXo XP jumped 31% today. Someone bought 50,000 calls on it last Friday. Brandon Chapman caught that print and several others before Brazil exploded. The options market flagged this rally days before the headlines hit. The Brazilian ETF climbed 12.5% today. Brandon ties the move to the Brazilian election, where Flavio Bolsonaro may be expected to finish ahead of Lula da Silva. Petrobras rallied 11.5% on top of it. Brazil was the clear winner across global equities. Brandon found the setup sitting in the options tape over a week ago. Bullish out of the money calls kept hitting EWZ and other Brazilian names near the lows. Those buyers put dealers on the hook. Dealers sold the calls, so a rally forces them to buy stock to hedge. The stocks ran overnight and over the weekend. Dealers had to chase, and the gamma squeeze did the rest. Brandon compares it to

https://youtu.be/2n1bk7fkBVI The S&P 500 trades just off its record highs. Nearly 60% of its stocks sit in bear market territory. I see about 300 points of upside from here. I see about 800 points of downside. That lopsided setup drove everything I covered in this weekend’s update. I’ll start with the upside. I think the S&P 500 can reach 8,000 by the end of the year, and I’d even argue for 8,100. The downside could turn into an abyss. A drop to the bottom of the volatility box takes the S&P 500 under 7,400. A break of that box opens a straight shot below 7,000. I’m watching the bond market as the trigger. Notes dropped hard about 45 minutes after Friday’s open, and the S&P 500 slid right along with them. Apple recovered enough to steady the tape. That won’t hold forever. Nvidia isn’t bigger than rates, and nothing else

https://youtu.be/uyl6IPzTNFs The US dollar ran from 101 to 102.14 in a single session. Blake Young points out that a move that size can take a month or more. Blake reads it as foreign capital rushing into the US. He’s already mapping where that money lands next. The SPY whipsawed for more than three hours with single candles covering 25% to 50% of a full day’s range. It sat off just 0.1% when Blake recorded. Blake found the real move in bonds. The 10-year hit its lowest level in years, then reversed to test Monday’s high on volume running above 100% of average. Bonds and the dollar climbing together usually signal fresh capital arriving from overseas. Blake points to the euro sliding from 113.71 to 112.49 as more proof. The dollar index just cleared every resistance level back to early 2025. Blake calls it one of the largest single candle days

Gianni Di Poce sees the Nasdaq climbing to 32,000 or even 33,000. He calls that target conservative. This morning’s cooler than expected inflation report pushed stocks to new highs. The fade that followed doesn’t change his view. The data sharply cut the odds of a Fed rate hike at the October meeting. Gianni sees that shift driving the positive reaction. The Nasdaq outperformed on the session. Money rotated out of semiconductors and back into software. Gianni remains very bullish on software. Semiconductors make up 40% of the tech index. Software makes up only around 20%. Microsoft hit new highs today. Palantir, Nvidia, and Google all showed strength too. Gianni’s rule on price action is simple. A consolidation near the highs of a move is bullish. The Nasdaq set a record high just a week ago. It’s now carving out a wedge pattern near that level. A false breakout would have

https://youtu.be/4wTGplX0lEs The 10 year Treasury yield has gone parabolic. It’s sitting just shy of 5.3% on a slope that looks like a launch trajectory. That chart should strike fear into every trader. I’m getting long bonds anyway. Bonds have sold off from 108. They hit the 102 handle today. I think this is the trade of the decade. I’d even call that an understatement. The S&P 500 barely notices any of it. The AI trade keeps ignoring the bond market, and Meta is still a total love affair on Wall Street. Semiconductors rose about 1% today. The S&P 500 still slipped as Apple shattered the lower edge of its expected move. Plenty of stocks are taking dramatic hits underneath the index. The advance decline line has been terrible, and a ton of names sit in bear market territory. Tomorrow morning brings PCE and GDP data. PCE was Jerome Powell’s favorite

https://youtu.be/kESTK0ZNPm4 Crude oil has topped out between 11:30 AM and noon Eastern for five straight sessions. Brandon Chapman caught the pattern this week. Every time oil rolled over, the S&P 500 caught a lift. The Iran headlines kept landing in that same window. Brandon calls these headlines interference. They’re overriding the gamma levels traders normally lean on, at least for now. Yet, his real edge starts before the opening bell. He checks one private screen, then makes his trading decision in about 6 minutes. On Thursday, October 1 at 2:00 PM ET, I’m opening that screen live. It’s called THE SWITCHBOARD. All 71 of Brandon’s documented trades go on screen. Save your free seat for THE SWITCHBOARD on Thursday at 2:00 PM ET Now, in tonight’s video, Brandon also shows how to read this week’s headline chop session by session: Thursday’s rally came on talk of a framework toward a

https://youtu.be/VuFnaY5PkbM The 30 year Treasury yield hit 5.44% on Thursday. That’s its highest level since 2004. I’m buying bonds right into it. I’m short bond futures puts at the 104, 103, and 102 strikes. I also bought bonds outright. I see an opportunity few traders get in a generation. I’m also ready for some near term pain. If the 30 year yield climbs to 6.5%, bonds could drop another 10 to 13 points. I’ll load up more if that happens. The stock market gives me another reason to want bonds. A handful of names hold the S&P 500 together, and I expect a wicked rotation back into bonds when they crack. Here’s what I break down in this weekend’s video: Only 45% of S&P 500 stocks traded above their 200 day moving averages on September 24th. A month earlier, 70.57% did. Just 25.44% sat above their 50 day moving averages,

https://youtu.be/yKDrf9lDr3s Blake Young found a trade that pays 2.76% in one month. Annualize that…and you’ve got a VERY healthy return. Dow (the chemical company) would have to drop 7.5% before he loses a single penny. If Dow does fall that far, Blake owns it at a discount. Then he starts collecting a 4.9% dividend yield. That setup comes out of a market going nowhere. The S&P 500 and the QQQ both gapped down today, filled the gap, and closed right back at yesterday’s level. Blake doesn’t read that as bullish or bearish. He isn’t convinced we break out over the next couple of days or weeks. He went hunting for the next inflection point instead. He found it in basic materials. Materials should normally benefit from higher costs and higher inflation. The XLB has dropped back to long term support anyway. Blake’s one year chart shows that level holding again

https://youtu.be/FOV8YMSiKHs More S&P 500 stocks are moving against the index right now than I’ve ever seen. The last time I saw anything close was the dot com peak. That’s a record share of stocks trading with negative beta. Beta measures how a stock moves relative to the S&P 500. A beta of 1 means your stock moves about 1% for every 1% move in the index. Negative beta flips that relationship. If the S&P 500 rallies 1%, a negative beta stock might drop 1%. I first saw this stat in a post on X. I didn’t believe it. I ran my own numbers all the way back to 1990. The data was worse than the post. The share of negative beta stocks peaked at 42% on August 7th, 2026. It sits at 34% today. The one year beta tells the same story. On that measure, 17% of S&P 500 stocks