I Just Found the Next Big Market Catalyst
It's understandable investors would assume that Amazon is a great representation of consumer discretionary spending - and the overall economy, for that matter. But I think I can go one better... It might suprise you, but I think Costco is actually the better yardstick, and I'll show you exactly why. See, when Costco beats, equities…
The Magnificent Seven are Down to the Final Four
The S&P 500 was enjoying a bit of a bounceback today after yesterday's selloff. Good news, right? Well, not so much. What I was looking at toward the close - and in fact over the past few days - is actually not great news for the market. We just keep seeing more and more weakness…
It's Looking Scary Out There - Here's What to Do About It
There have been a few times over the past couple of weeks where we’ve seen warning signals flash and stocks start to waver. It goes a little something like this: The mood turns risk-off, the mega-bulls calling the shots in chipmakers and tech start to falter, and defensive plays like gold and bonds start to…
Here's the Real Reason Nvidia is the Only Stock That Matters
You probably understand correlation in the markets - assets moving together in some kind of relationship, even if that happens to be inverse. It usually makes intuitive sense. If stocks drop, safe-haven assets like gold or bonds move higher as the crowd looks for safety. That makes sense, right? The dispersion trade, on the other…
When the Selling Starts, Markets Could Get Wild
The markets can be the ultimate bandwagon sometimes, and that’s got a tendency to be dangerous. It doesn’t take long for one big, definitive sell order… to be followed by tens of millions of others. At the moment, it’s working the other way; the crowd is into just one or two stocks (which we’ve talked…
Why This Bad Economic Data Was Good for Stocks
So, it seems “bad news is good news” again - we’ve seen this cycle a few times in recent years… Investors have had the chance to digest not-exactly-great economic data several times this week - including today, when the PCE numbers hit the street. None of that data was positive; we haven’t had a single…
These “Magnificent 7” Stocks Just Hit Critical Levels
These stocks have been leading the markets higher and lower for months now, to the exclusion of practically everything else - including hard economic data! (Including PCE, which drops tomorrow.) FOMO-stricken investors and traders are bidding them up to (literally) insane levels. There’s really not much else left to buy… and if there was it’d…
Stocks Are “Coiling” Near All-Time Highs - Mania Could Be Next
If you’ve gotten the sense lately that something is building, you’re not wrong. We’ve seen hyper-concentration in the biggest stocks, to the point where plenty of us are focused on just one. People are chasing crowded stocks and trades, bidding up stocks to nosebleed levels. And yet, tech is still strong. We can tell from…
The "FOMO Trade" Moves Downstream in AI and Crypto
"When YOLO, you're all about FOMO." The Magnificent 7 tech mega-caps and AI are the quintessential "fear of mission out" plays - it often seems there are more bettors there than bona fide traders. But another "leg" has been kicked out from under these stocks" Google. Tune out the noise and we find...the stock is…
What to Do About This One-Stock Stock Market
I can think of 499 stocks that might as well hang it up... Welcome to the S&P 1, where you can buy any stock you want… so long as it’s Nvidia. Buyers only, though - no sellers allowed. I’m only half-joking. Diversification on the S&P 500 is now severely compromised; it’s more concentrated than it’s…
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