https://youtu.be/K6Li2RSaeZo Last week’s rate hike started the countdown on this bull market. Gianni Di Poce sees it as the signal that we’ve entered the final phase. He isn’t turning bearish. He thinks this final phase could carry the Mag 7 and Mag 10 another 50% to 80% higher. Gianni rejects the lazy take that rate hikes are bearish. He expects another hike or two before year end to pull global capital into US stocks. The bears keep complaining about weak breadth. Gianni says breadth mattered more before just over 10 stocks made up over 40% of the index. In past manias, the average stock faded well before the indices did. These mega caps have become the indices, so the market won’t go lower while they keep climbing. Tonight’s video maps out how far Gianni thinks this final phase can run: The Silicon Surge daily precision arrow indicator fired on Fed

https://youtu.be/luy94dF2tug Brandon Chapman watched Meta scream 11% on a day with no earnings. That move had nothing to do with an AI headline. Desks were running a dispersion trade. They sold premium in the SPX and bought calls on the Mag Seven names. Brandon showed the proof on the screen. The VIXEQ climbed from 38.3 to 38.8 while the VIX bled lower. Component volatility rose because traders were buying calls on individual names. Index volatility fell because those same traders were selling SPX premium around 30 days out. Those calls force dealers into negative gamma. Dealers hedge by buying stock, and the tape grinds higher on its own mechanics. The structure was already loaded before the first tick. The market opened at 766 with the negative gamma flip sitting all the way down at 762. That cushion let price run without friction. SPY blew through 770, took out 772, and

https://youtu.be/n8CDtxhNIXE Quadruple witching came and went today. The S&P 500 finished the week dead unchanged. The story sits in the bond market instead. The 10-year yield is parked at 5% and setting up to break higher. I’ll be watching that all weekend. When the bonds break, a long list of other asset classes gets dragged into it. Start with where we’ve been. We’ve traded inside the same volatility box since May 4th. Five months of pinging back and forth. The futures rolled from September to December this week. The new contract sits about 68 points higher, so the box moved up with it. Center of the range now sits near 7550. A selloff into that level next week means nothing to me. A push above 7750 gives a rally real legs. Today handed you another rotation session. Financials opened lower and rallied straight back, and over 80 stocks were trading

https://youtu.be/N2XfS_D4xWM Blake Young stripped the overnight session out of today’s tape. The S&P 500 moved 0% from the cash open.Every bit of that recovery landed while American traders slept. This wasn’t an audience participation move.Technology ran 2% on the day. The index still finished flat once you measure from the 9:30 candle forward.Blake traced the buying to the dollar. Foreign capital converted euros, yen, and pounds into US equities overnight.The dollar broke out of a double bottom and now targets 100.61. It closed today with the exact same strength it carried yesterday.Equities fall when the dollar climbs. That overnight bid papered over a market still rolling over underneath.Look at the quarter instead of the session. Only communications, healthcare, and energy sit above the S&P 500 average over the last three months.Half the sectors sit below zero. Blake reads that as a temporary pullback, and he’s getting ready for the next

The Fed raised 25 basis points and gave no forward guidance at all. Risk in this market went up after that announcement. One number proves it. The SPX priced a $128 expected move for the entire week. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are already in the books. Friday’s expiration still implies plus or minus $91. Most of the week’s risk now sits inside two sessions. I started tonight’s session in the September S&P 500 futures contract. We dropped right back into the volatility box and tagged 7511 almost spot on. I call 7511 the warm fuzzy spot. Risk goes there to die. The box runs 7350 on the bottom and roughly 7700 on top. The SPX dragged us back to it. Nearly five million contracts traded there today. Tesla traded two and a half million. Nvidia traded three million. Nothing else on the board moves that kind of notional value. Plenty

https://youtu.be/R8TrsMTMi3g Gianni Di Poce caught something yesterday that barely registered anywhere else. Software outperformed semiconductors by the greatest margin in history. That happened in a single session. Gianni has been building an overweight allocation into software for months. Yesterday paid him off. He’s already looking at the next rotation, and he’s walking through the whole framework live tomorrow. Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern, Gianni opens the room for free. He shows the four conditions he checks in the Nasdaq every week, the full track record since launch with the losing trades included, and a brand new second way every Tech Timer pays. One attendee leaves with $1,000 cash, drawn live. There’s no replay. 👉 Save my seat for Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern👈 Now here’s what has him watching the Nasdaq this closely. The index has done nothing since mid May. Four months of range, and the Bollinger Bands now

https://youtu.be/Bq4K0CrBVnU The 10-year Treasury note touched 5% today. Fed funds futures now put a quarter point hike Wednesday at 90%. Brandon Chapman spent today’s session explaining why that hike has close to nothing to do with inflation. Raising rates won’t rebuild the refining capacity we never built. It won’t bring down oil after we bombed a batch of Russian refiners. Brandon tracks the real pressure to a different place. The Fed needs the yield spread between us and Japan to stay wide. The Bank of Japan is raising rates to fight its own inflation. Their Friday policy statement lands right on top of that spread. Every tick of tightening in Tokyo narrows the gap. Investors who borrowed cheap yen to buy our Treasuries lose their reason to hold them. Brandon walked through the collateral math, and it’s the part I keep coming back to. A Treasury posted as collateral at

https://youtu.be/RgtNLDsYx80 The S&P futures closed at 7660. That’s the exact upper edge of the volatility box I’ve been marking since May. Every time we’ve tagged 7660, this tape has turned into a crap fest. We closed spot on it Friday. Friday looked like a snapback rally. I care far more about the other thing that snapped back. Correlation came back. We opened with 93 products trading on one side of the market, and I haven’t seen an open like that since April. That isn’t a bullish read or a bearish read. It tells me the index is getting ready to move after four and a half months stuck in the same range. The VIX argued the opposite. It measures 30-day implied volatility, so it can’t see short duration options at all. Short duration vol went up on Friday. The VIX feels like the last instrument to know. Look at the

https://youtu.be/hQH7tBfzBv8 Blake Young pulled up the Fed Watch tool today. A rate hike at the September 16th meeting now prices in at 71.4% probability. That number sat at 50/50 a week ago. Yesterday it jumped to 61%. Today it’s 71%. Crude oil was behind all of it. Today, it’s trading past $100 a barrel. PPI printed 0.4% month over month, right in line with expectations. Blake zeroed in on a detail nobody headlined. That 0.4% is four times last month’s number after revisions. Core PPI actually slipped from 0.3 to 0.2. Almost all of the producer inflation traces back to oil and energy. Oil and energy feed 17% of CPI directly. Oil added another 10% in the last three days. None of that appears in today’s report. At minimum, Blake expects next month’s PPI to climb 0.2%. He sees a path toward 1% or even 1.5%. Bonds are already voting

https://youtu.be/FKo9cf7frLo Brandon Chapman says market vulnerability is the highest he’s seen in a long while. The yen is the reason. This morning the Treasury bought back only $6 billion in bonds. Expectations sat near $10 billion. Yields broke loose. The 10 year pushed to a yield of 4.857%. That’s the highest we’ve been all year. Brandon backed the chart out three years. We’re breaking through and testing the high from October 2023. A stellar seven year note auction pared some of the losses. Brandon still pulled up the SPX at nine o’clock his time and showed a direct positive correlation with bond prices. The yen is what makes this bigger than a bond story. It strengthened against the dollar today. It strengthened against the euro and the pound too. Brandon calls it a bigger move than the one we saw at the end of July. He wants to know whether