Heavy Volatility Lurking for Remainder of the Week
It’s all about the expected move for the week. Don reviews indices and key sectors so you know what to expect in the next 2 days of trading.
It’s all about the expected move for the week. Don reviews indices and key sectors so you know what to expect in the next 2 days of trading.
Volatility picked up big time last week with the price sell-off but today’s action continued the bounce off 2983 Gravity. Is this it? And which stocks made new all-time highs today? It’s the typical list of strong stocks plus a couple surprises. In tonight’s video, we check on financials (XLF), strong tech stocks (AAPL and AMZN), the VIX, and of course key price levels as targets in focus.
The S&P had a 144 point range today while the expected move for the week is 125. XLF and technology participating in the rally. The S&P rallied and closed above the volatility box. However, the XLF is still below the crucial 26.50 level and volatility hasn’t backed off. We are still in a Vomma Zone! Here’s what to expect…
Outliers leading to more outlier events! Weekly percentage Moves SPX Expected Move–last week– 78.38 (expected move)–next week– 125.77 VVIX was the preeminent indicator, yep we warned you Back in the Hurt Locker! aka: The Volaility Box Bonds UP, market tanked! market musical chairs, music stopped… you find a seat? Tech will be the epicenter of ANY big sell-off–XLF, XLE–Monster of Tech–consumer staples– WMT, COST Apple is my new Boeing – if the DOW has issues AAPL has issues. Looloo – LULU ! Keep your Helmets ON!
Don made a specific point to highlight the quiet yet aggressive buying activity in bonds – along with the VIX Volatility Index – that showed us that something big was moving behind the scenes. Today, we realize now what that was. Stocks across the board – in fact all 500 S&P 500 index components – were negative today with most losing over 5%. It was a dramatic down-trend day and took us from soaring heights all the way back near Don’s 2,893 Gravity Point which is where we’ll begin Friday’s session.
For the second day in a row money is rotating out of financials into big technology. The market seems to be posed for a big move in either direction. Be ready for some wild trading activity during the remainder of this week.
You’re not alone if you felt confused about today’s trading activity and the divergence between the majority of negative stocks and the continued upward action of the indexes, especially the NASDAQ. That’s in large part to market cap leaders such as Apple (AAPL), and Amazon (AMZN) that made new all-time highs with the /NQ, but also general strength in leading tech stocks. In tonight’s video, Corey explains the unique factor of today’s tape and updates the ongoing plan for how to conceptualize the price movement and your trades.
Financials lead the way as the XLF level closes above the crucial 26.50 level. BA helps lift the Dow higher and risk on trades in the energy sector. Here’s the key stocks to watch this week…
Employment Situation– missed the broad-side of a barn– dragging out instability within employment– will the FED will tapper the asset purchases? Anything but normal…–SPX smashes the weekly Expected Move SPX Expected Move–last week– 78.31 (expected)–next week– 78.38 Bonds– we are back baby! — bonds crushed and the range is broken– rate are a flyin’ Outsized Movement — XLF, XLE, EEM, TLT– I am a buyer of premium!– ranges in bonds, gold, dollar, spx– Setup in GLD
In case you missed it, some of the strongest stocks in the SP500 today weren’t financials, but airline stocks. That’s in large part because these same airline stocks have lost so much value over the last month. However today was the day aggressive call spreads and bullish ‘fade’ or reversal duration positions went in the money thanks to a lot of patience. In tonight’s video, Corey highlights these stocks and explains why patience is key in trading against a trend.
Don Kaufman
TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.
Read Don's full bio| Today | |
|---|---|
| 08.00 | |
| 09.00 | |
| 10.00 | |
| 11.00 | |
| 12.00 | |
| 13.00 | |
| 14.00 | |
| 15.00 |