Are Rising Interest Rates Good for Anyone?

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS80ckRxSjZiOTZSMA==[/video_player] The stock indexes end the day slightly lower once again. As rates move higher all eyes will be on the jobs report on Friday to see if the report will affirm the expected rate hike next week or give the Fed an excuse to delay. For the SPX we look back at the expected move for this week and see we are right on the edge of the lower part of the expected move. In tonight’s video let’s look at the 2 scenarios that can occur from here and why…

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This is Not Selling – Yet

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS81bXBORHdTUEtPYw==[/video_player] For the 4th consecutive trading day stocks ended slightly lower or unchanged. After the March 1st break out day the major indexes are near the low of that day. Since then there has been Fed comments that took the probability of a March interest rate hike to 84%. Here’s what to expect the higher Fed Funds rate will mean for stocks, bonds and interest rates. The indexes being 1-2% off all time highs is not a sign of selling… yet

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The Door is Open, Will the Bears Take the Bait?

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9JRkgtbUN1Wnd2MA==[/video_player] After nearly 4 months of complacency a few definitive signs of volatility may truly be emerging. The Sp100 today opened with 95 decliners, first time we have seen this since early November. Moreover, the XLF sold off a bit today with bonds selling off as well. Lastly, we shall build a bullish spread in the TLT as the bonds have seemingly priced in a rate increase for the March FMOC meeting. Let’s take a look…

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Bull or Bear, this Market Shall Torment You in Every Move

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9pSzVmZW1yRmJfMA==[/video_player] Markets moved well within our expected range this past week, even though IPO mania and a Wednesday rally has buyers believing the markets are impervious to anything. Moving forward keep a close eye on your overall risks as bulls will attempt to buy in every dip and bears will look for a catalyst to spark a sell-off. Though traders and investors may not agree on much; we are all starting to come to the conclusion a rally of this magnitude will not end well. Opportunity is large in what can only be described as a low volatility yet high risk situation. Let’s take a look…

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Using Time Spreads to Trade the Upcoming Range

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9vY3JxRmtNZThTbw==[/video_player] After yesterday’s market sprint stocks took a deep breathe today with some profit taking selling at all time highs. In tonight’s video let’s review what to expect in the coming months and the strategy that will work best in that market environment…

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Markets On the Brink of the Expected Move

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9LdFp4bDZkMTZVRQ==[/video_player] All of the major indexes popped to all time highs today on the heels of a positive tone from the new administration. Bonds sharply lower sent financials higher. The brokerage firms rebounded today after being hit hard yesterday on the news of an all out discount commission war. In tonight’s video let’s revisit the expected move. Despite the today’s rally the SPX is on the brink of what was expected for this week. The next two days are critical let’s see what to expect…

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Small Caps a Leading Indicator?

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9palZHWDJOUzh0VQ==[/video_player] We’re finally starting to see the typical market structure kick in on the daily chart, and as expected, traders are starting to hedge against the “unexpected” with tonight’s SOTU speech…

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Complacency Prevails on the Eve of a Risk Event

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9VWEFzaGE4U1owTQ==[/video_player] If you missed today’s trading day you didn’t miss much. Indexes moved sideways on very light volume. A complacent market will move at some point. Could tomorrow’s State of the Union address be that catalyst? Let’s take a look…

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The Volatility Monster is Lurking

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9oRmlsbzFRbWRLQQ==[/video_player] The major indexes ended the shortened week slightly off all time highs. Where is the volatility? That is the big question on every trader’s mind. In this important weekend edition we will dissect the various sectors and the market in search of volatility and the opportunities they might present…

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A Change in Character Under the Hood

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9uUzN1TnNrZ1ZMNA==[/video_player] Stocks off all time highs today. In tonight’s video we look under the hood to see if there was a change in character in the market. Last week we discussed how a weak opening was bought throughout the day. Today we saw something different with a strong opening being sold throughout the day. Is this the start of the next range built up?  

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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