Are You Seeing This Risk?

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS8wTGJIWlZEWWFUYw==[/video_player] Let’s review historical volatility vs. implied volatility. What does each mean and why   is it important? These two market gauges are what I look to when determining market risk. You may not be seeing all this risk I am…

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Top Down Index Thoughts, and a Technical Framework

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9reU1iX1JrMkc1Zw==[/video_player] The indexes continue to battle back and forth in a tight range. Let’s turn our attention to stocks that have gone vertical and what typically happens after that…

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Getting Short the 830 pound AMZN Gorilla

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9GU1c3QmlBS1ZOMA==[/video_player] Watch tonight’s video for a TheoTrade idea. AMZN is displaying a 2 standard deviation move to the upside in the last 10 trading sessions making the stock movement statistically significant whereby providing a contrarian setup.  Additionally, market technicians Jeff Bierman and Doc Severson have pointed out the RSI Laguerre is displaying highly overbought and the Fractal Energy displays the stock has run out of momentum in this most recent advance. Here’s the trade…

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Loving the Levels but Short Japan!

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9RYWp1aGtJTjRwZw==[/video_player] Here are the levels we continue to watch intra-day. These levels have been holding for the last few weeks and once again we are at a key level. Also, let’s take a close look at a trade set up…

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Using Context in Your Charts

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9uQUl6TEl6T3BSOA==[/video_player] Most traders love charts, but most traders are using charts wrong. In tonight’s video report let’s review the right way to use charts. Adding context to your charts will keep you ahead of opportunities and help you avoid the pitfalls that trap other traders…

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Is This Juice Worth the Squeeze?

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9seUUxY1E2emszbw==[/video_player] You need to ask yourself how much risk do you want to take in the short duration? The expected moves are just based on probability. Options premium is being suppressed across the board. What happens when we wake up one day to a spike in volatility? This seems to be happening more frequently. The risks are out there here’s how to prepare for the upcoming week…

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A Three Month Pass

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9fNHNYY0JoLWhoSQ==[/video_player] The Fed has decided to sit on their hands once again. This gives the market a 3 month pass since no one will expect them to raise rates the week of the election. This means the only possible rate hike in 2016 would come in December. We can’t trade the market we want we need to trade the market that’s in front of us. With that in mind let’s talk about what to expect…

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SPX Pegs Risk Perfectly

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9hQm1maTBzMExySQ==[/video_player] Bank of Japan and Janet Yellen are now in our rearview mirror. Markets rallied right into our resistance zone that we have been watching for the last few weeks. Tomorrow will be a key day. After Fed announcements the first move may not always be the last one. We are living in one of the most efficient market places seen. Markets are not about efficiency though and the markets can’t peg the risk perfectly forever…

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Ready, Set…

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9pMUVMUnpLcWpUOA==[/video_player] After tomorrow night the market will be free from the constraints of upcoming Bank of Japan and Fed announcements. Either the markets have already priced in the news or they’re going adjust to a new reality…

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Levels to Trade By and Volatility on the Horizon

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9FS0ViWkhWTDJ2dw==[/video_player] Here are the key levels this week to watch in the S&P. These key levels in the S&P will dictate order flow to all the major stocks you trade. With the Bank of Japan and the Fed announcing this week here are some of the trades to keep your eye on…

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

Read Don's full bio


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