GroundHogs Day; What to do in a Low Volaility Climate

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9NT2E3SlRpUXQyRQ==[/video_player] The stock market is at record low volatility. What does that mean? Well, if you’re a premium seller you are selling some of the lowest premium ever recorded! That is why we have been using In Out Spreads to take directional exposure to the market. Believe me, I love non-directional strategies, but they just aren’t here right now. If you try them you are on borrowed time and eventually all your winners will be taken out. With In Out Spreads there is no time risk or volatility risk. If you’re wrong in direction you have minimized your risk. Let’s take a look at a In Out Spreads trade…

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Around the Horn with the Sector SPYders

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cueW91dHViZS5jb20vd2F0Y2g/dj1GMDlzUXVtRVZfMA==[/video_player] Let’s start the week with a look at the all the major sectors. It’s helpful to look at all the sectors on fractal time frames to get an idea of the big picture and where we are going…

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The Search for Alpha

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9BUnFPTDdVZTZIdw==[/video_player] Where do you go for returns in this market place? Stocks are at all time highs. Bonds are at all time highs. Gold is up 25% in the last 6 months. Since May, we’ve heard negative equity calls from Stan Druckenmiller, George Soros, Carl Icahn, Jeff Gundlach and Bill Gross. Why? Because being short is the only place where investors are going to find returns (alpha). And in fact the markets are priced to favor short sellers. Don’t use your retirement account as an excuse as to why you can’t be short. There are ways to protect and profit in your retirement account. Let’s find out… Guide to Getting Short and Collecting Income: https://theotrade.com/getshort/

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Time to Go Bearish on AAPL?

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9xc3lrb2VTYXpvOA==[/video_player] The jobs report hasn’t moved the markets in a while. Tomorrow will probably be no different barring any major surprise. Let’s look at a few trade set ups for tomorrow. There’s one I like in AAPL that we can set up in tonight’s video…

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Grinding Higher into Friday Jobs

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9maWhWekJZanhLMA==[/video_player] Tops are a process and bottoms are an event. The topping event continues to unfold today as the SPX continues to flat line at all time highs. The first place to look for the market to go is to test the break out level. From there we will know a lot more. Let’s also take a look at what the market expects this week from the unemployment numbers and how that relates to the FOMC decision…

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Are the Central Banks Losing Control?

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS82WVMzTGpKdTZtTQ==[/video_player] Another muddled day from the markets. There’s so much liquidity that volatility is being squeezed out of the markets. The question we have to ask ourselves is what happens when the markets turn their backs on central banks around the world? At some point can the central banks throw everything they’ve got at the markets and have it still not make a difference? Let’s take a look at this scenario tonight…

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Signs of Volatility and a Trade Setup

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9uelNIVXJnZTF2SQ==[/video_player] Signs of volatility slowly slipping into the market. The overall market continues its sideways move as it has over the last 2 weeks. Tonight let’s look at a few canaries in the coal mine and a trade set up…

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Market Shrugs Off Bad Data

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS8xMERTWHR1ZHlhQQ==[/video_player] Even if you think bad news is good news because the Fed will start another round of QE the risk continues to be to the downside. I’ve made my entire trading career around selling volatility and collecting premium. I have never seen volatility this low. With all the risks out there in the market you will lose over time trying to sell premium. TheoTraders know when the trade isn’t there because this will save us money over the long duration. TheoTraders take calculated risks. This is not the time to do what you’ve always done because it’s worked in the past. This is a different market and at TheoTrade we are going to walk you through the mine fields. Selling premium is a trap right now. TheoTraders don’t fall for market traps. This is what TheoTraders do…

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AMZN and GOOGL Earnings Trade Setups

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9tdlJXclhkZ21NTQ==[/video_player] After hours today AMZN & GOOGL reported earnings. Both companies beat their expectations and have moved close to 1 standard deviation to the upside. As we have talked about if you look at earnings trades over 1000s of occurrences there is no statistical edge in Iron Condor trades. However, there is an edge in placing a trade in the direction of the stock and overall market trend. We have seen that to be true today for AMZN & GOOGL. Let’s also take a look at overall market and what to expect tomorrow…

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Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”853″ height=”480″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9BR2lWQ19xOXYzSQ==[/video_player] Earnings season in full force as stocks like Facebook rockets higher based on earnings news. There was little news from the Fed announcement today. The market has become sensitized to the veiled threats of increasing rates. If we look at the Fed watch tool we can say market is expecting a low probability of a rate hike in September. This lets the market know what to expect going forward. Tonight let’s look at one strategy I like during this market environment…

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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