Bear Market Rally

Bear Market Rally [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”560″ height=”315″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS80LXkwQ2M5Qmh3NA==[/video_player] Is this a bear market rally? I believe it is. Let’s take a look at the market divergences which are tell tale signs of a bear market. Volatility futures are still telling me risk is imminent. The most precarious area is the financials that didn’t perform as well as the rest of the market in the rally. Also, the bonds didn’t sell off. That is a sign that investors are not rotating back into stocks and that Friday’s rally was nothing more than short covering. Here’s what to do next week.

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Stocks to buy

Stocks to Buy [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”560″ height=”315″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9rbl93dXd4bmVWTQ==[/video_player] Any stocks to buy? It does seem like stocks are on sale as the S&P has already hit a 52 week low. If you’re looking at stocks to buy here are some guidelines. You wanna find stocks that have shown relevant strength compared to the overall market. Here are a few example of stocks that have been able to hold up against the broader sell off.

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Trading Volatility

Trading Volatility [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”560″ height=”315″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9WWG9ZYlBYTGdTcw==[/video_player] Just when it looks like it’s all over the markets rally higher. This is the type of day I’ve been looking for. The S&P Futures low of 1804 may be a short term bottom, but keep in mind the S&P was still off 20 handles today. Volatility is the name of the game and they were at the extremes today. VIX got up to 32 intra-day. Bonds spike higher to over 160. Higher bonds means lower interest rates. Lower interest rates are bad for the financials. I don’t hear anyone talking about the financials and nothing can happen without the financials.

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Stocks Sell off

Stocks Sell off [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”560″ height=”315″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9GXzRWeE9kbjBRSQ==[/video_player] Strength got sold again. The market environment is one of fear and hesitation. The indexes across the board are being dragged lower and lower. Stocks aren’t able to find a support level. Each gap higher has been quickly filled. If you’re not already short this market then it’s best to keep your cash on the sideline. There is nothing to do in this market until strength is maintained for a few days. We need more evidence that there is support and willingness for traders to buy for more than a few hours intra-day.

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Selling Premium

Selling Premium [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”560″ height=”315″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS8wcGkzOVBPMzNQdw==[/video_player] This is a premium sellers market not a directional traders market. Everyone is eyeing volatility because that’s what will dictate this market. Yes there are some big earnings announcements this week like NFLX and a few bank stocks. The market though is broken and volatility has exploded higher. Is there any are of the market I like? As a matter fact there is. Believe it or not I like oil long. The best way to play this is using the XLE, but that’s not all. In this video I’ll compare the QQQ to XLE to show you a major divergence that has set up. This could be a great long term trade. I’ll be discussing this more in the weeks and months ahead.

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Stock Market Capitulation

Stock Market Capitulation [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”560″ height=”315″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9UdXpuVGlkVUZoWQ==[/video_player] Stock market capitulation day. This is the type of action you wanna see when the market throws in the towel. After some heavy sell side activity culminating with record negative ticks the markets rip higher. As we look at the activity we look at the possibility of a short term rally. Keep in mind there are a lot of traders trapped in trades that will be selling into any rally. Don’t get caught up in any rally. Access each day as a new one.

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Stock Market Crash 2016

Stock Market Crash 2016 [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”560″ height=”315″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9YMEpPbUtKLWN0SQ==[/video_player] The word of the day is tumultuous. We still can’t get any type of relief rally in stocks. At the same time there doesn’t seem to be any capitulation in sight. The VIX is at a moderate level and we haven’t seen a big spike higher that would indicate traders are throwing in the towel. This is a liquidation event and they will hit all stocks. The Russell is down 20% in the last 9 months that is a full blown bear market in the small caps. This could be just the beginning of the sell side activity in 2016.

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Bonds and Stocks Relationship

Bonds and Stocks Relationship [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”560″ height=”315″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9KaFVYZ3Q4TDFtcw==[/video_player] Another roller coaster day, but today finished positive. The bleeding has stopped temporarily. Is there more upside? After such a down move there is always that potential. Stocks went higher and bonds went higher. Does something have to give? It is not likely that we will see stocks and bonds continue higher together.

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Oil Futures ETF

Oil Futures ETF [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”560″ height=”315″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS83QnNSczV4NHJVTQ==[/video_player] A wild roller coaster in the markets that ended massively unchanged. Where is the bounce everyone is looking for? Maybe it’s not happening because everyone is looking for it. 1900 is a big number though. I know many of you are waiting for that bounce to get out of positions. If we get it do not be the last guy out the door. The markets are looking very weak here and lower prices long term is in the future. One product I am bullish on is oil. The action today looked like capitulation. This is a position I am holding for a few days.

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How to Trade Volatility

How to Trade Volatility [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”560″ height=”315″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9QaFFpOXdzY0h6Zw==[/video_player] Volatility was at an extreme this week with this markets dropping 7%. What should you expect next week? And, what should you be looking at? After 15 years in the brokerage industry I know that retail investors do the worst during periods of market volatility. In the midst of volatility everything may feel like you’re doing is wrong. Every trader on the street will be talking about selling the rally. Indices will drive stocks so focus on the indices. In this type of market you want to choose spreads. Any directional option, a call or put, can lose money even if you’re right. You never wanna be in a position where you’re right and still lose.

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