Low Implied Volatility Strategy

Low Implied Volatility Strategy [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS84RklLRi1qbktsRQ==[/video_player] When implied volatility is low, we need to use a strategy that will benefit from an increase in volatility. We usually like to sell implied volatility in order to give us a statistical edge in the markets. However, when implied volatility is essentially zero – what do you do? Let’s find out in tonight’s video.

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Fed Watchers

Fed Watchers [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS96cnZVS3gzbUlYZw==[/video_player] Fed watchers closely listened to Yellen’s speech today. The speech was a lot more dovish than investors anticipated and that sparked another break out to the upside. Some Fed watchers are issuing caution. What does Yellen know about the economy that she has turned so dovish in the last few months? Will Friday’s unemployment numbers give us any indication of what’s to come. In the mean time let’s see what the charts are telling us.

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Liquidity Risk

Liquidity Risk [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9ZSWo4R1FjcEROSQ==[/video_player] Liquidity risk was on the table today as the stock market saw its lowest volume day since the week between Christmas and New Years Eve last year. There were very few stocks trading enough volume today to even look at. NFLX and FB were the notable exceptions today barely. This was a day where theta decay was in your favor. When liquidity is this low you have to take all the market action with a big grain of salt. Let’s take a look at why you shouldn’t trust a quiet market.

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How to Trade Earnings with Options

How to Trade Earnings with Options [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9fMmR6ZTg1Y2V0Yw==[/video_player] With earnings season coming up everyone wants to know how to trade earnings with options. There seems to be big returns to be made from the move in the stock that after earnings are reported. Let’s take a look into the truth around how to trade earnings with options.

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Low Volume Pullback

Low Volume Pullback [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9yek5IOVNKcS1TTQ==[/video_player] A low volume pullback in today’s stock market led lower by the energy sector. With the short week and a Thursday expiration let’s review some of our current positions. Here’s what we expect for tomorrow before the market takes a long weekend. Is today’s pull back the start of something more?

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Stock Screener

Stock Screener [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9RdnhTRDFoTm5IMA==[/video_player] Using the stock screener to find trade ideas will save you time, money, and stress. Tonight let’s look at the thinkorswim scan tab and some of the numerous stock screeners I use to scan for trade set ups I like.

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Expected Move thinkorswim

Expected Move thinkorswim [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS8yaDZnemVFSUNvTQ==[/video_player] The expected move in thinkorswim is showing us the SPX is not expected to move much this week. The market is closed on Friday, March Madness has started, and volatility is as low as it gets right now. We can look across the board even with AAPL and there big news announcement the implied volatility is low. Let’s take a look at what the market is expecting in this shortened week.

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Dividend Paying Stocks

Dividend Paying Stocks [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9ZMjNlT29wNjBEVQ==[/video_player] Dividend paying stocks are on the move. Fund managers are shifting their asset allocation around to put more money into stocks that are paying at least a 3% dividend. No matter what dividend paying stocks you pull up they are all near 52 week highs with many at multiple year highs. This is a defensive position fund managers are taken. This is also a sign they are worried about the possibility of negative interest rates. Let’s take a look at the dividend paying stocks I’m watching.

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Stock Market Correlations

Stock Market Correlations [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9EaWgxNlpaVkJQQQ==[/video_player] Stock market correlations are all wrong right now as the market continues to process the Fed announcement from yesterday. Bonds continue to march higher with all the commodities and the stock market. The weaker dollar is driving commodity prices higher. The Fed signaling a reduction in rate increases this year seems to have the markets running. Tomorrow they may realize the Fed is actually signaling their expectation for the economy to weaken this year. Also, the dollar may get a lift when traders realize unlike Europe and Japan at least U.S. interest rates are still positive!

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Stock and Bond Market Correlation

Stock and Bond Market Correlation [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9EX3phWkdhdnZBWQ==[/video_player] The stock and bond market correlation will dictate what happens next. If the bond market explode higher we can see a sell off in the stock market. However, if the bond market breaks down further you could see a bigger move higher in the stock market. Although I remain bearish in the long duration the short term duration could remain bullish. The bond market will be the tell tale sign.

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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