Put Debit Spread Strategy

Put Debit Spread Strategy [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9QMkFNNG5fazRCdw==[/video_player] Today I used a put debit spread strategy in GOOGL. As I mentioned over the weekend I was looking for GOOGL to trade up to 750 today. That is where I want to set up a put debit spread. Let’s review specifically what I did if you decide the trade is right for you.

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Implied Volatility Expected Move

Implied Volatility Expected Move [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9iblBzaXdyc3ktcw==[/video_player] Every week we need to look at the implied volatility and expected move for the week. Comparing the implied volatility and expected move to the previous week will tell us if there is more risk in the market. For next week the oil production report is coming out and the FOMC will make a decision on rates. According to the implied volatility and expected move the market saw more risk in the ECB announcement last week than they do in the FOMC announcement next week. Let’s also look at few potential trade set ups. For example, GOOGL is on my radar as a potential candidate for an in and out spread.

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Volatility is Your Friend

Volatility is Your Friend [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS94WjBlWGVPdXczVQ==[/video_player] Volatility is your friend and it’s back! Today’s market saw more than a 40 point move in the SPX and 100 point move in the NDX from high to low intraday. This sets up some great trading opportunities for us. Today I was able to intraday date FB and QQQ short. The bigger picture though is an increase volatility tends to lead markets lowers. When the risk is on investors seek safe havens and the stock market is no safe haven. Find out how we can take advantage of this volatility.

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Risk in the Stock Market

Risk in the Stock Market [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9sMkxFdERlMThsTQ==[/video_player] Do you know what your risk is in the stock market? The way the VVIX is moving is telling us that we are about to make a big move in the market or traders are hedging like crazy. There is a big demand for VIX options. There could be a lot of reverse type of trading in the coming days. It’s time to get positioned because the stock market is about to make a big move.

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Volatility of Volatility

Volatility of Volatility [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9yUjltWGI0VFhDYw==[/video_player] Looking at volatility of volatility is one way to look under hood of the market to determine what is actually happening. The product symbol is VVIX and what is conveys is the volatility on option prices. By looking at the VVIX we can see that fear is coming back into the market and we can expect higher volatility in the future.

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Massive Market Divergence

Massive Market Divergence [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS82UE1tLW1Xdmt2WQ==[/video_player] Massive market divergence in today’s market action. We saw the FANG stocks – FB, AMZN, NFLX, and GOOGL get clobbered while the rest of the market was relatively stable. Keep in mind these are the 4 stocks that led the market higher. If these stocks aren’t leading the way which stocks are going to lead the overall market higher? Currently there aren’t any stock raising there heads. So is the volatility over? Let’s take a look.

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Short the SPY ETF

Short the SPY ETF [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS93N3JMOW1xZ2lqWQ==[/video_player] You can view your short positions as being short the SPY ETF. Let’s review the positions that are on and what to expect next week. There is one big news announcement that is keeping the expected move juiced up in the SPX. That is the ECB announcement as central banks around the world race to the bottom. I’ll be sharing one of my favorite iron condor strategies on Wednesday March 9, 2016. For member the class is included with your membership. For non-members – you can register for only the class or sign up for the TotalTheo membership.  

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Profit Taking Friday?

Profit Taking Friday [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9COXBkMUhwd1pYOA==[/video_player] Will there be profit taking on Friday? Anything can happen with the unemployment report in the morning, but let’s dive into where we are in these markets. In 15 trading day the S&P is up 10% and has come into an important resistance level. You would expect bulls may find this a good place to take profits. If there are buyers who want to get long you would expect them to wait for a pull back with extended prices. The metal stocks have seen a huge resurgence. Let’s take a look at some of those metal stocks.

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SPX Expected Move

SPX Expected Move [video_player type=”youtube” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9hbHYtSGxuc1dXYw==[/video_player] The SPX expected move is telling us exactly what the market is doing – nothing. The weekly options for the SPX is telling us that the market is waiting for the unemployment numbers that will be released Friday morning. Let’s review what to expect when the market expects nothing.

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Stock Market Recovery

Stock Market Recovery [video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9jY1JBY0U1Wm5hMA==[/video_player] Stock market breakout and tonight we turn our attention to how much of can the stock market recover. Bonds broke down and the trend line. This now means real money is flowing from Bonds into stocks. However, it is difficult to make a case for chasing stocks here. There has been a very big run up in stocks. Markets don’t go up forever. Let’s look at some key levels tonight.

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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