If you’re watching the S&P 500, you’d better understand this: not all of its ETFs are created equal. We always talk SPY. That’s the cap-weighted beast driven by the same seven mega-monsters: Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), etc. If one of them moves just a little, it can have a bigger impact on the S&P 500 and SPY. There’s another player here, though. Enter RSP. Same S&P 500, but equal-weighted. Apple and American Airlines (AAL), the smallest market-cap on the S&P, can have the same impact. Normally, SPY and RSP move in sync. Not today. Right now? We’re seeing a critical correlation break. RSP is lagging SPY. That’s “shots fired.” That’s a warning that volatility is probably going to spike. Historically, this kind of divergence hits right before the market shakes the tree. Hard. So if you’re sitting comfy in long positions, thinking this summer lull is gonna last…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The AI conversation certainly isn’t new, but the market’s response to it is evolving. We’ve seen months of momentum behind the names that dominate the narrative: Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Palantir (PLTR), and the like. But now it’s not just about who builds the biggest model, it’s about who supports the infrastructure, who quietly enables the AI ecosystem to scale. Today, we’re zooming back in on that theme with a technical lens: channels, support levels, and setups that give us defined entries and risk. We’re not blindly chasing highs here. XLK has been climbing, sure, but that doesn’t mean every name inside it is overbought. Some are consolidating, some are testing lows, and a few are giving us ideal bounce zones. We’ll also look at Amazon’s (AMZN) mid-channel hold, Microsoft’s breakout, and IBM’s (IBM) longer-term setup. The goal here is

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’re looking at a market that’s decided risk just doesn’t exist. None. Zip. Nada. The VIX is parked while the S&P’s swinging 70 points intraday like it’s nothing. That’s a market in denial. It’s comatose. Volatility, or rather the weird lack of it, tells me we’re brushing up against peak complacency. Retail’s still buying every dip like it’s going out of style, the algos are buying tech, and nobody’s bothering to hedge. Why would they? Everything only goes up, right? But here’s the thing: volatility doesn’t die—it just naps. And when it wakes up from a long nap like this, it doesn’t stretch. It blows up. It’s all being held up by three names. Count ’em: Nvidia, Apple, Amazon. One twitch in any of those and the beast is going to wake up angry. Tonight let’s look at what the

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Earlier this week, I pointed out some cracks beginning to appear in the price action, and I’m on the record as saying we’re likely in the later stages of the current rally. But I also said I wasn’t ready to pull the ripcord on all my long positions, like Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). This strength is why we’re kicking off the “AI Summit” this week, and why I shared my top three AI picks. And to cap it off, I’m seeing a phenomenon unfold in real time on the tape. If I didn’t know better, I’d say the bulls are trying to repair this thing, attempting to “flip” the script. Tech and semiconductors, in particular, are leading – rallying, to be clear – and it’s highly unlikely markets will roll over while that’s true. So today, we’re

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Earnings season kicks off tomorrow with the big guns, like JPMorgan (JPM) and Wells Fargo (WFC), and this one could set the tone for the rest of the year. Expectations are lower than they have been, but with valuations stretched (CAPE P/E is near COVID-era highs) even small surprises could trigger outsized moves. So the board is laid out… I’ll be looking for metrics like trading revenue, net interest income, margins, and credit loss reserves. These should give us some clues about the state of the legendary American consumer, lending demand, and credit health. Tech and financials have carried S&P 500 earnings recently, but it’s fair – or polite – to say Magnificent Seven expectations have “cooled.” I think this could shift the burden, and when you look at performance through the lens of new tariffs, we might finally get

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] It’s Lucy-and-the-football all over again, and traders are flat on their backs wondering what the hell just happened. Trump happened, that’s what. He just put the markets on notice – the “Trump Always Chickens Out” tariff reversal “TACO trade” is finished. You might not know if from the action on the surface; there’s still some manic movement out there, but it’s really just a doomed game of musical chairs with fewer and fewer seats to grab. Because TACO or no, the market’s internals are absolutely brutal right now. The advance/decline line looks like trash and correlations are breaking down. And the cherry on top of this #!%& sundae is the bond market, throwing its weight around just enough to screw up everyone’s risk models. With all that teed up, we’ve got earnings coming up, too. They’d better be stellar because

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Tonight we’re going to look at how to use a different kind of tool to target the kinds of opportunities this weird, choppy market is throwing our way.  After all, today we got 30 minutes of selling followed by six hours of almost continuous melt-up on the back of a handful of stocks.  We’re going to look at how to profit on this momentum with calendar spreads, and we’re going to steer clear of the big marquee stocks everyone else is chasing (that could end up tanking everything in the end.)  We’re going to learn how we can sell time, basically, for a premium and use the cash to buy ourselves room to profit. We’ll look at stocks like Dow (DOW), good old John Deere (DE), Chipotle (CMG), and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) to. I’ll show you how setups unfold,

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I recorded tonight’s video just minutes before the cash close, and if you’re glancing at the S&P 500 – up 34 handles – thinking, “Hey, everything looks great out there!” you’d better pump the brakes. Because there are massive divergences unfolding right now beneath this market. Nvidia kissed that $4 trillion market cap, but don’t let one tech titan fool you into thinking the whole market’s healthy. The rally we’re watching is actually being carried by just a handful of names while the rest of the sectors… financials, staples, even healthcare… are lagging or flat-out fading. Retail call-buying is driving the early action – you can see that in the morning volume spikes – then completely vanishing by midday. This isn’t broad strength, more like a skyscraper built on crappy foundations. So let’s dive in and break down exactly why

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I have to say I’m relieved stocks didn’t rip higher yesterday – it gives the bulls a bit more runway. But the real question at this point is: What kind of bulls are left to drive this next leg? We’re going to dig into that in a moment. Right now, my main focus is locking in gains and managing risk. I’m still open to new long setups, but I’m approaching them with more agility than before. This stage of the rally is no time for lazy positioning. What’s striking is that even fresh tariff chatter couldn’t shake the market. That’s a clear sign of how structurally bullish the current setup is. In this kind of tape, dips remain buyable. But this is really important to keep in mind: leadership is shifting. Materials have already taken the lead, and now energy’s

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Every once in a while the markets reach a point – nosebleed levels – where the bulls feel like they have all the momentum… and the bears feel as though there’s nothing to lose. This is what we’ll call a “crossroads.” In this instance, though, there isn’t a pointer to clue you in on the direction and distance to your destination. You know, profitability. Surely there’s only one way there. The question is whether you’ll take the bullish goat track or the bearish 10-lane superhighway. (After all, the exodus in a selloff is usually much more extreme.) We’re at the crossroads again this week, courtesy of catalysts like the July 9 tariff deadline, an averted government shutdown, and, of course, the Big Beautiful Bill. The July 9 tariff date really took away a potentially big move in the market for