[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Traders flipped the script for the big indices, and we saw a nice bid take shape under stocks coming out of the weekend. The past two weeks have been a kind of slow-motion Groundhog Day for stocks – selling on Monday, rallying Tuesday to Thursday, and selling on Friday. We’ll see if we can break that short-term pattern in just a few days. Taking in the lay of the land, I see precious metals continue to look great, while crypto is still trying to get its legs under it, at least in the near-term. We’re being presented with some interesting opportunities regardless. I like what I’m seeing in Chinese stocks and in my services we’ve been increasing our exposure there; I think U.S. investors could be blindsided by under-performance in American stocks for a good chunk of 2025. That said,

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The mainstream media is having a freakout about the tariffs. We usually hear volumes about the potentially inflationary impact of the policy. Breathless, panicked headlines abound. One of my biggest takeaways here at the outset of the Trump administration is that the playbook has changed. The debt-based economy that we’ve become so accustomed to has changed, and likely for the better. For instance… I bet nobody’s really told you that tariffs can be bullish, right? The truth is there’s a hugely bullish tariff trade unfolding right under our nose. One of the biggest impacts that the threat of tariffs is creating is within the gold and silver market. As U.S. suppliers scramble for supply, we’re seeing London vaults empty and prices (in U.S. dollar terms) surging. Naturally, some are calling a top, but this is probably just the beginning. Let’s

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Another week with a wild start… and a weak finish, down about 1% for the day. This market is trading in an extremely tight range and has been for a looong time now. It’s a market desperate for a catalyst just isn’t finding any – not in data, not in news, not in Tweets. In fact, “Trump Tweets” are actually helping keep a floor under volatility right now. And yet headline risk remains as high as it’s ever been. This is the new normal. And you know what? I’m 100% cool with it. Like I’ve been saying, we’re fightin’ in a phonebooth here. This is a textbook trader’s market. We’re seeing plenty of juicy two-sided trade – I’m stacking up double- and triple-digit wins for my followers. Once you’re oriented, making money in this market is easy. Here’s how it’s

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 is in a funny place right now. On the chart I’ll show you in a second, it appears the market’s ready to make a breakout… or drop… by about 5%. I won’t claim to have a crystal ball; it could go either way. That means we need to find a setup that’ll treat us right in either case. I think we’re seeing something in the ongoing release of very mixed employment data that’s likely to point us in the right direction. Tomorrow we’ll get confirmation of whether America’s still hiring, still growing and expanding… or beginning to slow down. Consumer discretionary stocks are the key to this. Good data will tell us to play them one way, disappointing data will prompt us to use them in another. Here’s where I think we’ll get the best results…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] After getting knocked down this morning stocks began to creep up slightly in the hour or so before the close, but don’t read too much into that. This market is desperate for two things – a catalyst and some clarity. Trouble is, there’s not much of either right now. The market just can’t get a grip on forward risk; it’s not able to exit the box. And so we’re back in a place we’ve been before and it’s no fun – unless you’re a trader. We’re livin’ and dyin’ in a 200-point range between 5900 and 6100 on SPX. Those levels bookending us are important – pay attention to them. What I’ve got to show you tonight depends on it…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player]   Another week… another gap down to start. This time, however, the bulls reasserted control of the tape much more quickly than before, and now we see stocks pressing back and onward to new highs. I said last week that I expected software to emerge as a leader in the wider tech sector, and I haven’t changed my mind – I’m more convinced than ever, in fact. I’ve got a lot of interest in downtrodden stocks and assets, too; AMD in the semiconductor space, for one. I think crypto is about to get its legs back under it, and Ethereum is particularly attractive with Trump’s announcement that the U.S. should establish a sovereign wealth fund. Gold continues to achieve all-time highs, too, but the importance of this is being drowned out by a lot of noise out there right now.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] What’s in a name? I asked our TheoChat trading room members whether we’re in a bull or a bear market. A clear supermajority replied that they felt we were in a bull market. When I asked how they defined it, the typical answer was, “higher highs and higher lows.” But the answer just prompted more questions… When determining whether we’re in a bull or bear market, does it come down to price trends? Or is there something more encompassing? Does a bull market mean buying anything and everything in hopes the rising market tide will lift your boats? From a technical analysis perspective, at least, there is a distinction between bullish trends and a bull market. “Semantics!” you say… and you’re probably right since there’s actually little point in defining the market in such black-and-white terms. In the end, markets

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] You know how it goes – markets get shaky but one or more trillion-dollar mega-caps drag ‘em kicking and screaming higher. We heard that story who-knows-how-many times in 2024. Usually NVDA was the workhorse; sometimes it was TSLA or AAPL. But this is 2025. This is the market’s “new day.” And right now it’s the mega-caps that are shaky and a handful of lucky rotations are what’s keeping this market from taking a dive. In fact, the charts I’ll show you in a second show that the trade in those monster stocks is about to unwind. Increasing correlation will be the sign to pull the ripcord. So get ready now. Tonight I’ll show you where to be short, where to be long, and where to be out of the way…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Gross domestic product is the single broadest, cleanest measure of the health and growth of the economy. The number we got today missed the forecast and came in significantly worse than the previous quarter, to boot. How big was the miss? Big – 3.1% during the previous quarter down to 2.3% today. But, there’s a major asterisk to contend with, too: What we got today, of course, was advance GPD, which is the earliest measure and also the most likely to provoke a reaction in stocks. Today, that was enough to knock stocks back on their heels a bit before recovering to end the day just in the green. We’re not out of the woods yet, though, because GDP revisions look to be more or less downward. If those revisions hold water, we’ll likely be looking at sub-2% growth here

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There are a ton of earnings hitting us today and over the next few days – Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride. But that’s later. We need to push that aside. There are bigger things to be concerned about right now. The market went into its usual pre-FOMC holding pattern, drifting around sideways… until a “classic” Trump tweet triggered a drop. (Oh yeah, they’re back!) We got the Fed announcement, which was really a giant nothing-burger. But we’ve got major volatility set to be unleashed shortly – here’s what to do…