[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The big index was up nicely today (after the worst week since Silicon Valley Bank blew up). Verizon (VZ) and Nvidia led the way as Apple (AAPL) failed to dazzle with its product-line reveal. If you take a step back and consider the market’s current prospects, it becomes clear that, for everything that’s happened, players are still suffering from “shiny objects syndrome.” The idea that we’re attracted to stock razzle-dazzle isn’t a new concept of course, but how much longer will investors bite on any flash from a “shiny” object? As I’ll show you in a moment, it’s all too easy for investors to chase shiny objects like Palantir (PLTR) and Verizon (VZ)… only to end up eating away at their own long-term returns. Here’s what’s happening – and what I think is the real smart play at a time

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 has taken a big downside hit, lower by almost 1.7% toward the close. We saw an intense concentration of liquidity and volume – more on that in a few. It’s clear that a lot of deadwood has been cleared out. If you weren’t prepared for this, you’re in serious trouble. (I’m sure everyone reading this was prepared, though!) But I’m not about doom and gloom – I’m not going to talk about why the market’s down. In tonight’s video, I want to focus on all the juicy opportunities on the table for the taking amid this emerging sell-side activity. Let’s dig in…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Data-focused investors and traders sat down to some of the softest hiring growth data in nearly four years today… and they reacted accordingly, sending stocks mostly lower. Weak jobs data adds up to a weak consumer finance sector. At the same time, as the numbers get worse, we’re seeing some consumers tighten their belts, which is taking consumer discretionaries down. Of course, not everyone’s gotten the memo. Millions of consumers that aren’t belt-tightening are racking up record-high levels of credit card debt. What to make of it all? Well, that’s what we’ll talk about in tonight’s video. We’re going to look at two key consumer finance companies, including CapitalOne Financial (COF), and how they’re stacking up against the Select Sector SPDR Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY). Let’s dive right in…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There’s some big data coming our way this week: jobs data. We’ll get a glimpse of how the market is primed to receive positive or negative news, whether it’s “bad news is good news”… or the other way around. The Fed, of course, is set to cut rates this month. The market could take them at their word, which would mean a disappointing jobs number might hand us a selloff from here. I have good reason to think that may well happen. The SKEW index ramped up to 163 yesterday and the VIX was pegged above 20. Rising SKEW is indicative of increased hedging and rising crash risk in equities. What’s more, VX futures are in backwardation, with contract prices falling from the front month all the way out to November expirations. However, the escalation in the VIX, the quick

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I guess the “animal spirits” wanted to make sure we were paying attention after the three-day holiday weekend… September is historically one of the weakest, and by some measures the weakest, months for stocks. They’ve managed September gains only around 41% of the time going all the way back to 1897. Today we got a taste of that as markets re-price the impact of the Fed rate cuts due to kick in in a few weeks. A strong barrage of selling hit stocks – flattening marquee growth and tech names, especially. The stocks that are up right now are the classic defensive segments like consumer staples, utilities, and real estate. From a bull’s perspective, I’m not thrilled to see the NASDAQ’s lower high and a Dow peak amid classic “flight to safety” conditions. I’d like to see support firm up

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] It was supposed to be so easy! We were supposed to get dynamite earnings reporting from Nvidia and the markets were supposed to rally like crazy from Wednesday night on… That’s not what we got. We got meh earnings and two days of drifting, low-volume, sludgy slop-fest. No fun. But I think we could get some fireworks before long. That’s because I’m seeing new market leaders emerge, sure, but I’m also watching liquidity and volume go bye-bye. I’m also watching… the calendar. We’re coming up on September, a crazy-volatile month, historically, and we’ve got upcoming rate cuts. Here’s how it all fits together… and what you should do about it…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Nothing happens in a vacuum and everything’s connected – the thing that makes markets interesting can also make them… well… challenging. Today, we’re going to use a different comparison device, and look at the relationship between energy and consumer spending – and we’ll confirm what we find using utilities and copper. (Not just throwing darts here – it will make sense, I promise.) We’re also going to see how the bounce in oil prices (energy) and Visa (V, consumer spending) is probably going to end up a failed rally.  And we’ll look at big names like Home Depot, Amazon, and Constellation Energy, too.  Let’s get started…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The entire market was moving in slow motion in advance of Nvidia’s earnings – after all, we’re talking about more than 6% of the entire S&P 500. It’s the 1,000-lb gorilla of stocks. Over on the NASDAQ, where Nvidia is even more important, there was more than $4.50 worth of expected move baked into QQQ at the close… and before the earnings. I’ll show you my screen in a second – it’ll be wild for you to see the impact of the anticipation in real time. (And, yes, we’ll talk about things other than NVDA, but this is going to be cool.) Watch…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] To the casual observer, stocks look to be drifting around on a Lazy River ride, but the truth is, they’re consolidating their recent gains. This is actually bullish price action. But you can sense the palpable anticipation of Nvidia’s earnings report, which hits tomorrow. In my view, the reaction could set the tone for the last of the summer trading sessions. The Japanese yen, source of the carry trade that detonated markets just a few weeks ago, is beginning to come back, which warns of potential volatility, but the dollar – sacrificed on the altar of global growth – is declining now. If that declines, I think we could see risk assets continue to outperform. Let me show you what else I’m looking at here at the end of August…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] It was cute to watch Chairman Powell speak at a luxurious resort at Jackson Hole, on the edge of the old Frontier. To his credit, he addressed the root causes of inflation – spending and monetization… but then he laughed off the notion that they got the “transitory” part wrong. It’s easy for those in power, holding forth from chi-chi mountain resorts, to set aside the significant impacts of their policies on the average Joe. But Powell is the Chairman of the Federal Reserve – his confidence that inflation is now very clearly on the “2% trajectory” should be taken seriously… right? Of course his discussion of imminent rate cuts has a strong foundation… right? The reality is likely very different. In my view, the thing that really changed after Jackson Hole is the script that stocks, oil, and commodities