[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The bullish action of the last few sessions came to a screeching halt today as stocks sold off. Tech was led lower by the semiconductor sector, which has otherwise enjoyed a nice run higher this year, with high-volume, bellwether chip ETFs like SMH and SOXX tacking on gains of around 25% in 2024. Now both of these are down more than 5% for the day. In a day, the sector has given back around 20% of its yearly gains on news the U.S. government is “considering” limiting sales of chips to other countries. The thing is, the market’s internals remain strong, and most of the ingredients are there for a potentially historic bullish run… but we need the NASDAQ to make a new all-time high to bring it all together. Now, bonds are coming up off of lows and credit

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] “What’s the pain trade, Brandon?” I can hear you ask. Well, it’s the trade that delivers the most amount of punishment to as many investors as possible. Get familiar with it. The market is grinding higher, satisfying pretty much nobody. The bulls are left wanting more, whereas the bears who were short the market (like many hedge funds) are forced to cover. Thus, the pain trade is “high” for folks all over the market. What we’ve seen in recent weeks is a lack of real direction or rotation. And just when you think you have it down, that you have it all figured out… the market moves the other way in a hurry. The energy sector, as tracked by XLE, comes to mind… The pain trade can last for a while, but there are indications of when the pain will

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] “Let’s make a move…” “OK, you go first…” “No, you go first!” “No, you!” No one wants to be first. If I didn’t know any better, I’d say no trader out there wants to be the first one to… do something. Anything. The players here are scared #%&less. The market has spent the better part of three weeks bouncing around in an incredibly tight range – we haven’t touched the expected move since September. All the while, it’s like someone broke the dial on the VIX. It’s practically stuck above 20. But like I’ve been saying, this can’t last forever. And it won’t. And I think “it” will happen sooner than anyone realizes. After all, earnings are going to start ramping up on us here. Let’s talk about what to do…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Today’s CPI report came in a little higher than expected, which was enough to spook the bulls – and remind everyone that inflation is still a force for traders to reckon with. We’ll be reckoning with it again tomorrow morning when PPI is released ahead of the cash open. So long as inflation is running hot or, in this case, warm, the basic materials sector (as tracked by the XLB ETF, for instance) are a smart move, like a hedge and profit play rolled into one. The reason is dead simple economics: Companies that deal in materials can up their prices (and their bottom lines) without dinging demand. Tonight we’re going to look at classic materials stocks – miners like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Newmont (NEM), and several more. We’re also going to look at a stock that’s not in the

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The market’s been sticking traders with a weird, and, sure, let’s call it frustrating, conundrum for the better part of three weeks now. It goes something like this… Stocks are bouncing around in a tight 100-point(ish) range… but volatility has been really high, with the VIX pegged above 20 most of the time. It’s like someone broke the needles off the S&P and the VIX. Throw in some fairly light volume most days, and you get the impression no one wants to stick their neck out in front of any potential catalyst. There are reasons for this, which we’ll talk about in a second. And of course despite the range there have been big winners and losers, which we’ll also get to. But there’s a very high-risk situation waiting to unfold, and the next session or two of trading is

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Investors seem to be in the grips of fear, uncertainty, and doubt right now, and we’d be foolish to ignore the very real concerning events around the world. And yet… When I look “inside” the market, at its internals, just about everything points to a continuation of the bull trend. There are opportunities in tech, semiconductors, cryptocurrency, and even nuclear energy right now – despite the low in bonds and the big hit energy has taken. I’m looking for the former to complete a temporary low, in fact. Let’s look closer at these setups and see if the latest correlation with the dollar will hold up…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 has been drifting for a few weeks in a 100-point range that has yet to be broken. Even today, S&P 500 futures (ES) finished down 0.90%… on light volume. The market as a whole has held up, but interest-rate-sensitive parts of the market are starting to break. Utilities, for instance, were off 2.3% today on above average volume. NextEra Energy (NEE) was particularly hard hit – a leading loser in the S&P 100. By the time the bell rang and smoke cleared this afternoon, Energy was the only positive sector. Now, with Hurricane Milton steaming toward landfall, the dynamic is in play. We’ll look at this in-depth tonight. Higher oil prices are a major contributor to weakness in the Utilities sector, and Consumer Staples also beat the S&P 500 to the downside at -0.99% In fact, the

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 moved higher today… to finish out the week basically unchanged! It’s stuck right now, but not for long. I talked this morning about a buildup in gamma risk that raises serious questions about how to get in position for the weekend – more on that in a second. The S&P is stuck, but the thing is, most of the other key markets – bonds, currencies like the dollar and yen, gold, and more – are making monster moves right now. That’s not a coincidence, and tonight we’re going to look at just what you should do about it. Let’s get going…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We need to get real about inflationary pressures; they haven’t gone away. This economy offers us high prices and pinched supply chains that are likely to push prices even higher. The trend in oil and gas is no exception – prices are rising, creating a new uptrend that could see them push higher by 20% or more. The net effect is squeezed consumers with limited disposable income. That’s why I’m betting on oil stocks… and timing consumer discretionaries. We’ll look at healthcare and utilities tonight, too. Let’s jump right in…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 has been practically asleep, but I’m looking for volatility to pick up in a big way – starting with everyone’s favorite retail stocks. This is what you need to know…