[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Markets temporarily reversed following a message on X by Bill Ackman. The five word message, “We covered our bond short.” With yields testing 5%, it;s a natural position to cover, but it’s the implications that are both bullish for bonds and largely bearish for the market. (OXY, NEE, WPM, GDX, FXI, MARA, TLT).

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] -Bonds have crashed -Vol elevated but is it high enough? -Tech getting dangerous with earnings coming -Risk/reward and capital preservation SPX Expected Move- -Last Week – 90.24 (expected move 5 day week) -Next Week – 93.72 (expected move 5 day week)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we discuss Geopolitical risks and uncertainty, focussing on Middle Eastern conflict and we review major events in recent history and the impact on oil and the U.S. economy. We also look at a pairs trade opportunity during these moments of risk, considering a trade in favor of consumer staples over consumer discretionary.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] – The market is currently at a geopolitical crossroads with risk increasingly affecting the tech sector. – Despite the market being down 1.3%, the SPX’s expected moves suggest the market is relatively unchanged for the week. – Volatility indicators like VIX and volatility futures suggest heightened risk. VIX trading at around 20 signifies a more severe market situation than previous sessions. – Tech remains a significant focus, with some big players like Nvidia facing challenges. However, tech giants such as Microsoft and Google remain relatively unscathed. – With substantial open interest in SPX and heightened gamma risk, the market can expect significant volatility in the upcoming sessions.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’re continuing to see resilience in the US Stock Market in the headwinds of otherwise bearish or bad news, but is this the beginning of a larger rally or may the resiliency come to an end soon? In tonight’s video, we pinpoint what’s keeping stocks strong and then highlight the recent strength in Oil and Gold, amid the new lows that just printed in Bonds (meaning a new high in yields). Finally we pinpoint which key stocks – and reports – we’re watching as we go through another volatile week.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] A lot of bullish unusual option activity across the “Monsters of Tech” as traders look to create a gamma squeeze higher amidst a bevy of earnings announcements from the banking sector. Bearish UOA on USB and OZK points to a more uncertain outlook. (AMZN, MSFT, AMD, NVDA, RIOT, DQ, XRT, XLE, XOP)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] -risk metrics come alive -vol futures / VVIX -bonds bid -gold rips with dollar higher -energy sector holds markets together -inflation making a comeback -financials fade on strong earnings SPX Expected Move – -last week – 76.75 (expected move 5 day week) -next week – 90.24 (expected move 5 day week)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we look at inflation and the impact on equity values and inflation adjusted PE ratios. We discuss historic high levels in PE ratios and low Dividend Yield levels. We also compare the S&P 500 to a risk free premium reached 2.5 times the level seen in 2008…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] An important CPI number comes out Thursday morning which has the potential set the tone for the rest of the month until the Fed’s next meeting. Here’s the #1 tool I will be looking at tomorrow to determine whether the next move is higher or lower…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’re continuing to see a very resilient market that is rallying in the face of seemingly bearish major headlines. In tonight’s report, we pinpoint what’s going on with the strength in equities and how it all fits in the broader ‘sideways’ trading range in the market and the economy that is skirting through the middle of both bullish and bearish extremes. This week will give us more data on inflation and we’ll start financial earnings on Friday so there’s still plenty of volatility to go.