[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] –Extreme moves- everywhere ! –SPX Expected Moves –Bonds –Dollar –Mega market cap –Financials –Energy –the Consumer ? –GIS, WBA, CAG / WMT, COST,  XRT SPX Expected Move– –last week– 59.00   (expected move 5 day week) –next week–  56.05 (expected move 5 day week)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we discuss the low Producer Price Index number indicating sliding inflation. We discuss lower inflation as a signal of fewer rate hikes and possibly a rate cut by the end of 2023. We also look at rising oil prices as a catalyst of a return to rising inflation in July and August.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Markets exploded higher off this mornings CPI print which displayed cooling inflationary pressures. Don explores the SP500 breach of expected move and its implications for the remainder of the week as well as if the NASDAQ’s Magnificent 7 will continue to fuel this rally.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Will CPI Consumer Price Index – a key measure of where inflation is trending – surprise us tomorrow? In tonight’s video, we pinpoint the “higher than expected” along with the “lower than expected” plan and how that could affect the market trading Wednesday and beyond, along with the odds of the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision. We pinpoint where sectors are midway through 2023 and how we’re viewing these sectors.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Everyone knows that there is an outsized impact from the likes of Apple Inc (Nasdaq: AAPL), Microsoft Corp (Nasdaq: MSFT), and others. This short list of 7 companies carries about a 55% weighting on the Nasdaq 100 Index. Well, no more. The special rebalance is scheduled for July 24, 2023. Let’s visit the impact of the rebalance today’s unusual option activity trades (AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, SBUX, CDE, LYFT).

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] -SP500 took a mild hit, NASDAQ did not -Markets are stagnating until Tech says otherwise -Jobs, ADP & the FED -Where does the 10 year rate break markets? -Volatility, skew, and negative gamma -Position update SPX Expected Move– -last week – 53.67 (expected move 3 1/2 day week) -next week – 59.00 (expected move 5 day week)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We had a hint of potential surprise with the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls report released each first Friday of the month. Although usually a non-event, the ADP jobs report surprise – twice the number of jobs added as expected – was a major event and sent the bond market falling to downside price targets as yields rallied to the key 4.0% level in the 10-Year Treasury Note. Stocks slid lower as well as we’re adjusting to stronger than expected jobs numbers and any additional surprises ahead with the big monthly Jobs Report tomorrow. In tonight’s video, we also update all the nine major market sectors and how they’re holding up – or not – halfway through 2023.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we looked at the upcoming Fed Minutes as a catalyst for the market, focusing on the discord in the Fed rather than the rate decision. We also discussed a non unanimous decision in the rate pause as a signal of uncertainty and running out of ideas on how to manage inflation.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] It appears that traders are making a move on high short interest names in EV and crypto as we head into the Independence Day holiday. The setup is similar to last Monday but more focused as big cap tech and cyclicals led last week. (RIOT, MARA, BITO, COIN, FSR, NKLA, TSLA, RIVN, BYND, WMT)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] -Window dressing or real rally? -Order-flow in tech has changed -Expected Moves XLF & XLE vs QQQ -Bonds & yield curve -Position update SPX Expected Move– Last week- 54.73 (expected move 5 day week) Next week- 53.54 (expected move 3 1/2 day week)