Powell Pounds the Bears into Hibernation!

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Today’s explosive rally, brought to you by Jerome Powell, reminds us all that volatility, in this marketplace, is far from over. In addition, there remains an immense amount of risk, still to come, in the employment numbers due out this Friday morning. It may also stand to reason, that we may see a slight pullback before the end of the week. Buckle up folks, we may be in for a bumpy ride!

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Planning the Week Ahead and Salesforce (CRM) Earnings

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Salesforce.com (CRM) is the only major stock reporting earnings tomorrow afternoon so we pinpoint the option-based expected move targets for its earnings. We then highlight the main events on the economic calendar that could move markets and there are some big ones. Know what to expect as we wind down November and get ready to start December.

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Recession Back on the Table? Energy Traders Seem to Think So

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] One of the strengths to the market in 2022 has been the energy trade. Back from 2020 obscurity, it looked like it was poised for the next secular bull. However, with recent data pointing to weakness headed into 2023, it didn’t take much for Fed Speak to drive energy equities lower. As the dollar positions itself to rise, oil stocks may be poised to fall on outlook and spoil the end-of-year rally. (UUP, XLE, XOP, ERX, AGNC)…

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When Will Reality Meet the Markets?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Is Santa’s Rally Coming? -Sector update – QQQ, XLF, XLE, XRT, XLP, XLU -jobs is coming! -too data dependent, cannot bank on ANY move! Volatility is on the move- -SKEW, VVIX higher -will VIX follow suit? Get your trade on – This week’s Profits and Losses – GOOGL, /ZB, limited range great for premium sales – new ideas, Inflection Point Spread, Catapult! SPX Expected Move – -last week – 72.27 (expected move) -next week – 76.22 (expected move)

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Turkey or Dove? What were in the FOMC Minutes?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Market grind higher in holiday tape. This is a time to be cautious as SKEW and the VIX have started to rise. Markets are getting up to a few key areas. The next 2 weeks will have critical data coming out that will determine the Feds next move. Have a Happy Thanksgiving.

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Your Plan for Wednesday Headline Volatility and a Checkup on the Strongest/Weakest Stocks this Year

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We have a holiday week in motion but Wednesday could have surprise volatility with early morning headlines and the Federal Reserve’s Minutes. Outside any surprises, we may easily continue this bullish ‘holiday week’ drift. We also see what’s similar about the Top Five Strongest stocks and the Bottom Five Weakest stocks of the year (and sector performance) and what that may mean for the rest of 2022.

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Bulls Looking to Give Thanks but US Dollar may Run Off with the Turkey

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Bulls hoping Black Friday Deals include stocks moving higher to end 2022. However, today’s bullish move in the US dollar may spoil the party as the traditional bullish year end clearance comes up short. (TSLA, HYG, HD, SLV, AEO, CROX, USFD, XLE, NWL)

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Calm Before Another Volatility Storm?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] -Markets pause, no spx breech! -Living in the upside down -TGT is reality, cooling inflation is not -Energy, financials rolling over? -Skew picking up, vvix dropping -Holiday trading, don’t get off your game Get your trade on – This week’s Profits and Losses -JPM, /MES -New ideas, GOOGL, introducing the Catapult! SPX Expected Move– -last week – 99.13 (expected move) -next week – 72.27 (expected move)

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Your Stock and Sector Update for the Middle of November

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In tonight’s video we take a moment to step back and gain insights from sector strength and weakness in the context of the ongoing downtrend in stocks. One sector continues to outperform, two sectors continue to underperform, and the remaining sectors mostly meet in the middle. However, we pinpoint ongoing weakness in three major stocks that failed to bounce with the market since the October lows…

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Will Inflation Cooling Be Enough to Take Markets Higher?

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The cooling CPI numbers rallied the market recently, but now the weaker demand is showing up in earnings. Bad earnings and poor guidance is hurting individual stocks. How long will it take for declining earnings to eventually take down the rest of the market? Let’s take a look at some of the factors that will make up the markets next move.

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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