A Tale of Two Markets by Tony Rago The overnight session was relatively quiet, but there’s an important divergence developing. ES is holding above its weekly open, while NQ continues to trade below its own. That leaves us with a market that’s slightly out of sync, with ES attempting to lead and NQ still lagging behind. For the bulls, the objective is clear: NQ needs to reclaim yesterday’s close and make a run back toward the 30,000 round number. A sustained move above that level would put the breakout back in play and could help bring the two indexes back into alignment. With it being Friday, there’s also a chance we see a quieter tape as traders square positions heading into the weekend. That doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities—it just means discipline becomes even more important. Stick to your plan, avoid forcing trades if the market isn’t cooperating, and

Dip Buyers Deliver—Now Comes the Next Testby Tony Rago Yesterday’s dip buy played out almost exactly as planned, with NQ finding buyers at 28,912 and ES responding from the 7,470 area. That was an important reminder that buyers are still willing to step in at key support, but now comes the next test. For the bulls, the job is to keep NQ above 29,412 and defend the 7,500–7,512 zone on ES. If those levels hold, buyers have a chance to continue building on yesterday’s reversal. Bears, however, still have opportunities. They can lean against 29,812 and the weekly pivot on NQ while using the 7,562 weekly open on ES as a key resistance area to try and push the market back lower. As always, the opening range should provide the first real clues. With earnings season approaching, there’s a good chance we settle into a broader trading range rather than

Another Overnight Flush by Tony Rago Another big move lower unfolded overnight, which means we’re once again coming into a market where a large portion of the move has already happened before the opening bell. That makes patience even more important. On ES, bulls need to defend the 7,500–7,488 zone if they’re going to generate a meaningful retracement. If the weekly pivot and 7,500 both flip into resistance, the path opens for another leg down toward the overnight lows. The early reaction around those levels should tell us a lot about whether buyers still have enough conviction to stabilize the tape. NQ continues to be the weaker index as money rotates out of the chip names, and that’s keeping additional pressure on tech. Bulls need to defend 29,000–28,912 to have any chance of building a recovery, while the halfway-back level around 29,250 could become an important resistance zone if buyers

Waiting for Leadershipby Tony Rago NQ struggled to hold above the 30,000 round number yesterday and ultimately closed back below it, while ES managed to test 7,600 before backing off into the close. Right now, ES is showing a little more relative strength than NQ, and that’s something worth paying attention to. Ideally, you’d like to see both indexes moving in sync. When one is leading and the other is lagging, it can create a choppier tape and make directional conviction harder to find. Today’s focus is on seeing which side steps up and whether that leadership starts to align. With no major economic reports on the calendar, the market should have the opportunity to trade on its own technicals. That doesn’t change the game plan. I’ll still be waiting for the first 15–30 minutes to play out before looking for opportunities. Let the opening range establish itself, identify where

New Week, Fresh Opportunitiesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money. Mondays following a three-day weekend are often a little wonky as traders return, reposition, and work through the first round of economic data. Because of that, my plan is to let the market settle in before getting too involved. The opening rotation can be noisy, and I’d rather let the tape establish itself than force a trade before the market reveals its intentions. Patience early often leads to much cleaner opportunities later in the session. The key levels are well defined. On NQ, the 30,000 round number remains important resistance that bulls need to reclaim with conviction. On ES, buyers are working to turn 7,550 into support after recent strength. Beyond those, the weekly pivot and weekly open are the two levels I’ll be watching most closely. They should give us a good read on whether buyers

Jobs Report Shifts the Focusby Tony Rago This morning’s NFP report came in softer than expected, and the market appears to be interpreting that as reducing the odds of another near-term rate hike. That gives the bulls an opportunity to regain control after yesterday’s weakness, particularly in the tech sector, which took the brunt of the selling. Now the question is whether buyers step back into those names and turn today’s session into a meaningful retracement. For NQ, the roadmap is clear: reclaim 30,250, hold it as support, and build momentum back toward 30,500. If buyers can accomplish that, the tone of the market could improve quickly. As always, the opening range should provide the first real clues. Rather than assuming the report guarantees higher prices, I want to see the market confirm the move with strong participation and follow-through. If buyers fail to reclaim those key levels, yesterday’s pressure

Fed Chair Takes Center Stageby Tony Rago Today is all about the Fed Chair’s speech at the open. Expect elevated volatility, sharp swings, and plenty of headline-driven reactions as traders digest every word. Sessions like this can create tremendous opportunity, but only for those who stay patient enough to let the market reveal its hand. My plan is to let the initial reaction play out before getting involved. Chasing the first move on a Fed-driven day is rarely the highest-probability trade. I’d much rather trade the fallout once the dust settles and the market begins to establish direction. Today’s expected ranges are significantly larger than normal, so risk management needs to be front and center. Don’t get caught up trying to capture every move or forcing trades in the middle of the noise. There will be plenty of opportunity throughout the session once cleaner setups develop. Stay disciplined, stick to

Quarter-End Crossroadsby Tony Rago Today marks the final trading day of the second quarter, so keep quarter-end flows on your radar. We could see price stall near current levels as institutions square up positions, or we could get a breakout fueled by “window dressing” and quarter-end markup. With volatility still elevated, this market may not follow the typical script, so flexibility is key. Technically, we’re seeing lower highs on the 4-hour chart while the 1-hour trend is still constructive, setting the stage for what could be a choppy and two-sided open. That kind of mixed picture usually rewards traders who stay patient rather than trying to predict the first move. My plan is simple: wait for a quality setup and let some of the opening volatility burn off before getting involved. There’s no need to force trades when the market is still deciding on direction. Stay balanced, avoid becoming too

New Week, Fresh Opportunitiesby Tony Rago New week, new opportunities to make money. While today’s calendar is relatively quiet, the week ahead is anything but, with employment data on Thursday likely to become the market’s main focus. That could keep traders cautious early in the week as positions are adjusted ahead of the bigger economic releases. With no major news on deck today, there’s a good chance we spend time developing a wider trading range before the market shows its true hand. That’s why I’ll be letting the first 15–30 minutes play out before getting too involved. The opening range often provides the clearest roadmap for the rest of the session. Bulls have the early momentum overnight, but now they need to prove they can defend it. On NQ, I’ll be watching 29,500 along with the weekly open as key support on any pullback. Over on ES, 7,433 and the