Relief Rally or Something More?by Tony Rago Big rally back into some key levels overnight, with 28,500 on NQ and 7,500 on ES now front and center. Since today is the final trading day of July, I’m watching for a retracement to help us determine whether this rally has real legs or if we’re simply seeing a relief bounce off the recent lows. Bulls need to defend 7,462 on ES and the 28,106–28,000 zone on NQ, then bounce with enough strength to reclaim and close above those key levels. If they can do that, the rally has a chance to continue. If not, the bears will be looking to cap the move and push price back under 7,462 and 28,106. With month-end positioning in play, today’s session could have some interesting flows as traders and institutions look to pin price around certain levels. That’s another reason not to get too

Post-Fed: Snapback or More Pain?by Tony Rago We’ll see what this tape wants to do post-Fed. Yesterday was one of the fastest shifts I’ve seen in a long time—from risk-on buying everything to risk-off selling everything. That kind of reversal creates absolute carnage on the charts and leaves traders trying to figure out what just happened. Now the question is whether we get a snapback rally as buyers step in to absorb the damage, or if yesterday was the start of something bigger and we see continuation to the downside. I’m not interested in guessing the answer before the market opens. I want to see where we land in the opening ranges and let that structure guide the day. The OR should give us the first clues about who has the ball and whether buyers or sellers can actually follow through. After a move like yesterday, patience is more important

FOMC Day — Protect Your Capitalby Tony Rago Today is FOMC decision day. While the Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, the real fireworks could come during the press conference. If the comments spook an already heavy tape, we could see a major sell-off. On the other hand, reassuring comments could quickly fuel a strong rally. Either way, this is a session where headline risk can take over in a hurry, so I’m not interested in forcing trades just to be involved. As a futures trader, my plan is likely to stay on the sidelines until the press conference is over and the market has had time to settle. With volatility potentially exploding, NQ could become nearly untradeable, and these conditions aren’t ideal for aggressive trading. The goal today is simple: minimize risk and preserve capital. We also have major earnings reports hitting after the bell, adding another

Bulls Need to Show Upby Tony Rago Bulls gave it up yesterday without much of a fight, so the question coming into today is simple: will buyers finally step back in? With big tech earnings and the Fed both on deck tomorrow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some consolidation and range-bound action today as traders wait for the big catalysts. Above 28,250 on NQ and 7,500 on ES, we could see the bulls start to spark a rally, but NQ buyers still need to reclaim 28,000 to really begin shifting the momentum back in their favor. Until then, the bears still have the upper hand. Tomorrow is shaping up to be a big one, with the Fed and major tech earnings likely to bring plenty of volatility. That means today is about keeping some powder dry and not forcing trades in front of the bigger event risk. I’ll let

Bears Have the Ball—But Friday Changes the Gameby Tony Rago Bulls gave up the fight yesterday and we printed new weekly lows, putting the bears firmly in control coming into today’s session. That said, I still believe the bigger catalyst for this tape is the upcoming FOMC, and trends rarely reverse on a Friday. INTC reported after the bell and absolutely crushed it, so the bulls may get a little help from that strength as we head into the open. The bears have the advantage for now, but they need to finish the job and push toward 28,250 and ultimately 28,106 on NQ. If buyers can absorb the weakness and reclaim some key levels, we could see the pressure ease. The other possibility is that we simply settle into a range, which wouldn’t surprise me at all on a summer Friday. After the volatility we’ve seen this week, traders may

Earnings Put the Bulls to the Testby Tony Rago GOOGL and TSLA both reported last night, and both stocks are trading lower pre-market. TSLA’s cash flow moved negative, while GOOGL’s EPS got a boost from unrealized gains as capex surged to more than $44 billion. Now the real question is how the market digests those numbers once the opening bell rings. We’ve seen bulls consistently defend the bottom of this range, but today’s earnings reaction could put that support to the test. If buyers are going to keep this range intact, they need to show up when it matters—not just in the overnight session. My plan is to let the market open and use the opening ranges for guidance. With major tech names under pressure, I want to see whether buyers step in and absorb the weakness or if sellers finally gain enough momentum to break the range. There’s no

Waiting on the Next Catalystby Tony Rago No economic data this morning and big earnings hitting after the bell, so we could be in for another slow summer tape. That said, I still expect the first hour to bring some volatility as traders position around these key levels. It’s all about the weekly pivots today. NQ is sitting basically right at its weekly pivot, while ES is trading below it. Bulls need to reclaim those levels and build some momentum from there if they’re going to push this market higher. The bigger picture remains sideways. Bulls have done a good job defending the pullbacks, but they continue to struggle to sustain rallies, which tells me the market is still waiting for a catalyst to spark the next real leg. Until that happens, we need to stay flexible and avoid forcing a directional bias. Let the opening range develop, watch how

Waiting for Someone to Take the Ballby Tony Rago Another consolidation day with neither side willing to take control. Today, I’m looking for that to change. On ES, bulls need to defend the 7,488–7,500 zone and build toward 7,550–7,562. On NQ, the 29,000 level remains the key line in the sand, with buyers needing to hold it and reclaim 29,250 to start shifting momentum back in their favor. If sellers step in, they need to turn 7,488 and 29,000 into resistance and open the door toward 7,450 on ES and 28,633 on NQ. The levels are clear—the question is which side can actually follow through. With big earnings on deck tomorrow and no major economic news scheduled today, another range-bound session wouldn’t surprise me. That means we need to stay flexible and avoid forcing a directional bias just because the market feels quiet. If buyers show up, we’ll trade with