Closing May Near the Highsby Tony Rago Bulls held the line again yesterday and delivered another impressive rally back over 30,000 on NQ — now we’re sitting right back near all-time highs heading into the final trading day of May. ES is also knocking on the door of the big 7,600 round number, another major psychological level that could attract attention early in the session. What continues to stand out is how quickly buyers have responded to every meaningful dip throughout this rally. Momentum remains firmly intact, and despite occasional weakness, the tape keeps finding a way to rotate higher. Today should be interesting with it being both Friday and month-end. Bulls are clearly looking to close out another strong month near the highs, but month-end flows can sometimes create sharp moves in both directions, especially around key levels. I’ll let the opening range develop and use that to frame

30K Is the Battlegroundby Tony Rago The big 30K round number is the story today. If price starts sustaining below it, we could finally see a deeper retracement begin to unfold. But if buyers can reclaim and hold above 30K, there’s room for this market to rotate right back toward 30,250 and potentially retest the all-time highs. ES is sitting at a similarly important spot — bulls need to sustain price above the weekly open and 7,500. Lose those levels, and the door opens back toward 7,462 pretty quickly. These are the kinds of sessions where key reference levels matter more than opinions. Keeping it simple here, the hourly chart has started showing some lower highs, which gives bears a slight edge coming into the open. That said, this tape has punished traders repeatedly for overstaying the bearish side, so confirmation matters. If price pushes back above 7,562 on ES,

Parabolic Tape Above 30Kby Tony Rago More highs above 30K and this market is starting to feel truly parabolic. The move has been relentless, and at this point it’s becoming harder and harder for traders to get comfortable positioning against momentum. That’s exactly why patience matters here. Chasing extended moves can be just as dangerous as fighting them, especially in a tape moving this fast. We’re also getting some Iran headlines pre-market, which adds another layer of uncertainty and the potential for sharp reactions early in the session. When geopolitical headlines start hitting during an already stretched market, things can move quickly in both directions. This is one of those days where letting the market open and settle is the right approach. The opening range should give us a much cleaner read on whether buyers still have complete control or if volatility starts pulling sellers into the tape. Either way,

30K in Sightby Tony Rago Coming off the long weekend and market holiday, we’re opening up with unfinished business still sitting below in the form of a Sunday gap. At the same time, NQ is now knocking on the door of the big 30K test — a major psychological level that’s going to have everyone’s attention this week. For bulls to get that move, they need to continue defending 29,833 and keep price accepted above it. If they can, momentum could easily carry into 30K before the market even considers filling the gap lower. ES is showing some early resistance around 7,550–7,562, so that zone becomes important to watch for either continuation or rejection as the session develops. This feels like one of those mornings where easing into the tape matters. After a long weekend, order flow can be uneven early, and chasing the first move is usually a good

Can Bulls Finish the Week Strong?by Tony Rago Pre-market headlines around a potential Iran deal pushed futures back above yesterday’s highs, giving bulls the early momentum edge heading into the open. The key now is whether price can actually hold those reclaimed levels and build acceptance above the pre-market highs instead of fading the headline pop. Bulls still have work to do — 7,500 continues to act like a brick wall on ES, and NQ still needs to clear 29,612 cleanly to really squeeze momentum higher. When markets reclaim prior highs on news-driven catalysts, traders want to see follow-through and buyers defending dips, otherwise the move can quickly turn into another failed breakout. Headlines tied to Iran negotiations and energy markets have been driving overnight volatility across equities, bonds, and crude, so the tape remains highly reactive. This is one of those opens where patience matters more than prediction. If

NVDA Holds the Keys Todayby Tony Rago NVDA delivered another earnings beat, but the stock is trading relatively flat heading into the open — and that’s the real story this morning. After such a massive run and consistently strong reports, expectations were extremely elevated. When a stock carries this much weight in the Nasdaq and the S&P, the reaction matters just as much as the numbers themselves. So goes NVDA, so goes the tape today. If buyers lean into the report and push the stock higher, the indexes could easily squeeze again. But if the market starts fading the reaction, we could finally see some broader pressure show up across tech. The key levels remain pretty clean heading into the session. Bulls need to defend 7,400 on ES and continue holding it as support, while NQ needs to maintain 29,000 and 29,106 to keep momentum intact. Below those areas, things

All Eyes on NVDAby Tony Rago NVDA reports after the bell today, and after a dozen or so blowout quarters, the risk here probably isn’t bad numbers — it’s boring numbers. Expectations are sky-high, and when a stock carries this much weight in both the S&P and the Nasdaq, every tick matters. NVDA has been one of the primary engines behind this AI-driven rally, so the market will be dissecting not just the earnings, but the guidance, margins, and forward commentary. That’s why today could easily turn into another range-bound chop session as traders wait for the real catalyst after the close. In environments like this, patience becomes even more important. When the market is waiting on a major event, price can spend hours moving sideways, trapping traders who force action where there isn’t any. I’ll be watching closely how we trade around the weekly open, because that level should