Semis Are About to Implode

https://youtu.be/448MIVtCiww The S&P 500 just ripped 100 handles. Underneath the surface, the semi trade is breaking. Intel’s implied volatility hit one of the highest readings on a 15-year chart while the stock keeps climbing. That is not how healthy rallies behave. AMD broke two times its expected move on earnings with zero vol crush. Volume hit 1.2 million option contracts on a name that usually trades 100,000 to 200,000. When out-of-the-money calls get priced this high, retail eventually stops buying them. Demand collapses and the stock turns and implodes. We are days away from that moment in semis. The same exact setup is showing up across Intel, AMD, and Micron. In tonight’s video, I show you what is breaking under the surface: Intel’s 9-day option chain shows a hard inverted skew with at-the-money calls at 89 vol and out-of-the-money calls climbing higher Intel’s 165 calls 72 days out are pricing

Read More »

They Mocked His $30K Call

https://youtu.be/48sdtPvnj_8 Weeks ago Gianni told subscribers the Nasdaq was heading to 29,000 to 30,000. He was laughed at, insulted, and scoffed at. Today the Nasdaq is up 1.5% and printing fresh all-time highs. The S&P 500 is pressing into the highs of the day with 7,400 in its sights. Semiconductors ripped nearly 5% to a new all-time high. Now Gianni says the last bullish domino is starting to fall. That domino is crypto. After weeks of calling it the final holdout, today’s price action confirmed the breakout. Here is what Gianni broke down in tonight’s video: Cipher Mining, IREN, and Hut 8 are all hitting new all-time highs as crypto stocks break out. Gianni is watching this group as the cleanest measure of risk appetite in the market. MicroStrategy reports earnings tonight. A close above $185 to $190 opens the door for a move back to $270 to $280 and

Read More »

56,000 Contracts Just Hit China

https://youtu.be/ykRipwdX6aY Brandon Chapman watched a 56,082 contract block trade slam into FXI during today’s session. That is institutional positioning of the highest order. And it is happening exactly as the US market flashes its biggest correction warnings since October. The dispersion trade just unwound after Mag Seven earnings. Smart money is rotating out of US tech and straight into Chinese AI stocks at value levels. Brandon walked through the same pattern that played out last October. The S&P 500 pulled back 6%, Nvidia dropped 20%, and the Mag Seven ETF slid 10%. Every signal that preceded that move is firing again right now. The warning signs are stacking up: The VIX 3M to 1M ratio hit 1.2 last Friday, meaning the three-month VIX sits 20% above the spot VIX. Brandon called this a classic peak-volatility expectation reading. Skew is north of 130 alongside falling dispersion. Historically this combination precedes 5

Read More »

Buying AI Stocks Here Is Pure Madness

https://youtu.be/XnTnzO6prb8 Two markets are running side by side right now, and confusing them will cost you money. On the investor side, I am not touching AI stocks at these levels because the risk-reward is absolutely terrible. The trader account had a completely different week. I went 4 for 4 on 0DTE and 4 for 4 on earnings flips, with the least made on any single trade landing at 100%. AI now represents over 40% of the S&P 500. The semiconductors are doing all the heavy lifting while everything else fades. Look at the year to date spread. The S&P 500 is up 5% and the QQQ is up 10%, while the SMH is up 36.57% after running from 360 to 512 in a near vertical line. Nvidia is the tell. The chip giant just slipped from a $5 trillion market cap to $4.8 trillion. Watch the 200 level into early

Read More »

Tech Rally On Suspect Volume

https://youtu.be/goeGTgEgtQ0 The S&P 500 hit a record high today on the back of a 10% pop in Google. Blake Young looked at the tape and spotted something nobody is talking about. The accumulation behind this rally is three standard deviations outside normal, but it is happening on lighter and lighter volume. Even today’s breakout barely cleared 50% of average volume. Blake calls the post earnings response “very suspect.” Instead of chasing tech higher, he is rotating into defensives that are quietly bottoming out. Consumer staples bounced today on real volume, and utilities outperformed alongside them. Money is moving toward safety. Blake walked through specific entries in tonight’s video: Pepsi (PEP) bounced on higher than normal volume with a target near $163 for a 5% to 7% move. Blake likes buying the 150 call for roughly $11 instead of putting $158 on the line for the stock. The 80 delta acts

Read More »

Big Tech Earnings Are Cracking

https://youtu.be/KuB09gI2vNE The biggest earnings day of the year just hit the tape. The S&P 500 has an $80 move priced in between now and Friday close. Today’s expected move was $40, and that included the FOMC. Microsoft was bid heavily before failing. Meta is getting its clock cleaned while Google barely holds the market together. One comment could end this rally entirely. If any mega cap mentions reducing AI spending on tomorrow’s conference calls, it is over for this marketplace. Forget bullish or bearish. The only thing that matters now is the expected move and how much of it has actually played out. In tonight’s video, I walk through every mega cap setup heading into Thursday’s open: Microsoft priced a $30 move and only delivered $15. There is plenty of room left to the downside before the conference call. Google priced a $20 move and is almost unchanged. Massive volatility

Read More »

The Tech Bubble Is Just Starting

https://youtu.be/sNbb2hP7t4A Stocks finally got the pullback everyone has been begging for. Gianni Di Poce thinks you should buy it. The S&P 500 futures hit a new all-time high overnight before giving back gains from Monday and most of Friday. OpenAI missed revenue and semiconductors dropped 3.6% on the day. None of that changes Gianni’s thesis. He believes tech is going dramatically higher from here. His reasoning is structural. Tech currently makes up just 30 to 33% of the S&P 500, with the Mag 10 names accounting for roughly 40% of the index. Compare that to Taiwan, where tech is 85% of the country’s index. The Netherlands sits above 50%. Historical bubbles, from railroads to energy, all saw their dominant themes exceed 50% of the index before peaking. Gianni expects tech to eventually become 60 to 80% of the US market. Tonight’s video lays out the immediate setup driving his call:

Read More »

This Rally Has an Expiration Date

https://youtu.be/TpSVlUpwu4Q Brandon Chapman just laid out why today’s market strength is borrowed time. Five Mag Seven names report Wednesday. The Fed announces the same day. The options market is sending a warning that price charts completely miss. Brandon is drawing a direct parallel to last October 29th. That marked the final peak before a 10% S&P 500 correction and a 20% correction in NVIDIA. The setup is nearly identical. The VIX is artificially suppressed as institutions pile into a dangerously crowded dispersion trade. That trade has until Wednesday to play out. Then the math reverses. In tonight’s video, Brandon walks through what the options tape is showing right now: 75,000 SPY put contracts hit in a single trade today, targeting the May 8th expiration. 10,000 SMH put contracts printed across three trades within one second of each other. 15,000 XLF put contracts placed on Financials as a downside hedge. 9,600

Read More »

Peace Sells are you Buying it?

https://youtu.be/30TAwCwWLc0 The S&P 500 finished the week nominally higher. The advance/decline line told a completely different story. Market breadth is broken right now. Fewer than a handful of stocks are driving the entire rally, and the engine behind it is a gamma squeeze, not fundamentals. In tonight’s video, I walk through exactly what’s happening under the hood: SPX and SPDR S&P options combined for 15 million contracts today alone. Add Nvidia’s 7 million, and just three products accounted for over a quarter of all options market volume. Broadcom hit the upper edge of its expected move four consecutive weeks, with nearly three standard deviation moves each time. The options market is mispricing forward risk. AMD breached its expected move four straight weeks. This week’s move came in at nearly three and a half standard deviations. Volatility futures finished higher today even as markets rallied. The S&P 500’s expected move for

Read More »

The Market’s Lying to You

https://youtu.be/wIMyhS3U1YA The S&P 500 looks fine on the surface. Blake Young just showed exactly why it isn’t. In today’s video, Blake breaks down why the advance/decline number is misleading. 52 stocks are up, 49 are down. Balanced, right? Look at the capital flows and the story changes fast. $1.7 billion is flowing into the stocks going up. $6 billion is flowing out of the stocks going down. That is a four-to-one ratio at the exact moment the market is testing a key resistance level. Blake calls it profit-taking combined with short positioning. Not just closing longs. Actively setting up bearish trades at this level. Add to that: the Chaikin money flow is past two standard deviations, meaning all the buyers that can buy have already bought. Volume has been shrinking throughout this entire rally. And today’s candle is forming a hanging man right at the 0% level of the monthly

Read More »

Most Recent

Why I Shorted a Rising Nasdaq for 60 Handles
How To Pick Crashed Stocks That Survive
What To Do When A Breakout Stalls
Their 90% Win Rate Hid This
Only 2.2% of the S&P 500 Hit New Highs

Get educational market insights sent right to your inbox.