Someone bought 54,000 SPY put contracts in two trades today while the S&P 500 rallied 1%. Brandon Chapman caught it all in real time using Block Hunter. The trades hit at the 660 strike with a 22 delta. One block landed at 22,000 contracts. The other came in at 32,000. Both executed at the exact
The S&P 500 is down 5% from its highs. That sounds dramatic until you realize we haven’t seen a single day of real panic selling. Friday’s advance decline line came in at fifty-fifty. You don’t capitulate until you correlate, and we are nowhere close. Oil just closed at its highs, reaching for $100 a barrel.
Blake Young just connected two dots that most traders are missing. Energy stocks broke out to new highs today while consumer finance companies are breaking down to new lows. That collision has a target. Oil doesn’t even need to go higher for this thesis to work. Energy companies are approaching peak margins at current crude
The S&P 500 is only down 13 points on the session. In the context of what we’ve seen lately, that’s massively unchanged. Do not let your guard down. The options market is pricing in a $224 expected move on the week. The actual move so far is 30 points. The week opened at 6,740 and
Sunday night futures opened down big and retested the late November lows. Gianni just flagged that move as a false breakdown, and the implications are massive. The dip got bought. The S&P 500 is up around half a percent on the day, and the NASDAQ bounced hard off support after briefly taking out its
Crude oil round tripped from $120 down to $81 in a single session today. Brandon Chapman spotted the trade hiding inside that move. Brandon took a call spread on American Airlines during the sell off and banked 30% before the close. His target was 70%, but with this much headline risk, he took the money
BlackRock just limited redemptions on a private credit fund. If you had a million dollars parked there, you can’t get it back. That’s a $150 billion company telling investors the door is closed. Blackstone is in a similar position, now down 30% on the year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is only 4% off its all-time
Blake Young just identified a commodity divergence that points straight to stagflation. Crude oil blew through resistance at $78 today and hit $81.04 while copper dropped 1.74% and is flashing sell signals. Rising energy costs plus falling copper demand is the textbook stagflation setup. Inflation without growth. Blake has been warning about an oil topping
The S&P 500 rallied 70 handles today. The expected move priced in exactly $69. The market called it to the penny. That precision should comfort you. It doesn’t comfort me. Despite a 160 point bounce off Tuesday’s lows, the volatility futures have not normalized. They are not even close. The term structure from April through
Gianni Di Poce has been bearish since the end of January. Today, he started buying. The reason comes down to one chart that changes everything about this pullback. After the Iran attack sent futures gapping lower over the weekend, the S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since late November. The Dow dropped to levels
