Markets Have Hit A Serious Volatility Inflection Point

Risk has Enveloped the Markets– –Dollar breaks-out –Bonds have become a double edge sword –where’s the implied volatility spike? –SKEW softens –front month premium low relative to movement –dynamics of professional trade in volatility Sector Analysis- –monsters of tech underperform –financials feel impacts of rate changes –energy is the gainer but that may change –focus shifts to retail TGT, WMT, COST SPX Expected Move– –last week EM– 70.69 –next week– 89.00 expected move

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Markets Fade Gently as Retail Stock Chaos is Now on Deck

The S&P 500 tested new weekly lows as traders sold into the close. The most concerning thing for bulls is how orderly it was done. While the selling in the broader market was orderly, Bed, Bath & Beyond (BBBY) collapsed following it’s earnings report. Are their earnings a prelude to a very troublesome outlook for retail? (XRT, COTY, DKS)…

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What are Sectors Saying about the Risk in the Market Right Now?

In tonight’s video, we start by highlighting a clear message sent by sector leaders and what that likely means for the broader market. Then we discuss the critical target price levels we’re watching and trading in equity indexes along with a warning from the bond market we need to continue monitoring…

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Volatility On the Verge of Exploding!

Stocks begin to make another leg lower today. The key thing to watch is the weekly SPX expected move. The SPX is trading below the lower range which means dynamic hedging kicks in and can take the market even lower. This could be a make or break week for the markets. Watch this crucial video update now…

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Markets Pause as the Debt Ceiling Trade is Engaged

With the first stage of the debt ceiling kicking in on September 30, what does that mean for the market? Well, today’s neutral finish didn’t provide a heads up, but the underlying trade in banks, bonds, and the dollar may be tipping their hand…

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Will Rising Interest Rates Pressure Markets?

—Wild range on the week—Bonds down, rates up.—Bonds doing what the FED did not—Evergrande risk QQQ vs SP500 Get Your Volatility Game Face On!–QQQ vs SPY weekly EM–Intertest Rates VS. Tech–Tech NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT, FB–Home Depot–Financials SPX Expected Move––last week EM– 95.29–next week– 70.88

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Relief Rally Surprises after the Fed Day

A bearish sell-off Monday was met with buying ahead of Wednesday’s Fed Day and now one day later, markets rallied even higher continuing a surprise support bounce from the daily chart abyss. In tonight’s session we discuss which stocks are leading the market higher and which key name continues to weaken in a new downtrend along with a quick look at what’s happening in bonds and yields…

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Your Key Update Ahead of the Fed

Wednesday gives us another “Fed Day” where it could be an impactful, volatile Wednesday depending on what the Fed announces for the future. In tonight’s video, we set the stage for the plays and key price levels – with targets – in our major markets and are playing it safe ahead of the big announcement as best we can…

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Extreme Volatility Decimates Retail Trade

Stocks open the week massively lower dropping below the expected for the whole week before coming back inside of it at the close. If the market can’t hold the weekly expected move it opens the door for much more serious correction. The FOMC announcement on Wednesday could be a catalyst in either direction. Here’s how the stocks I told you to watch over the weekend fared…

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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