The S&P 500 is only down 13 points on the session. In the context of what we’ve seen lately, that’s massively unchanged. Do not let your guard down. The options market is pricing in a $224 expected move on the week. The actual move so far is 30 points. The week opened at 6,740 and

  Sunday night futures opened down big and retested the late November lows. Gianni just flagged that move as a false breakdown, and the implications are massive. The dip got bought. The S&P 500 is up around half a percent on the day, and the NASDAQ bounced hard off support after briefly taking out its

Crude oil round tripped from $120 down to $81 in a single session today. Brandon Chapman spotted the trade hiding inside that move. Brandon took a call spread on American Airlines during the sell off and banked 30% before the close. His target was 70%, but with this much headline risk, he took the money

BlackRock just limited redemptions on a private credit fund. If you had a million dollars parked there, you can’t get it back. That’s a $150 billion company telling investors the door is closed. Blackstone is in a similar position, now down 30% on the year. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is only 4% off its all-time

Blake Young just identified a commodity divergence that points straight to stagflation. Crude oil blew through resistance at $78 today and hit $81.04 while copper dropped 1.74% and is flashing sell signals. Rising energy costs plus falling copper demand is the textbook stagflation setup. Inflation without growth. Blake has been warning about an oil topping

The S&P 500 rallied 70 handles today. The expected move priced in exactly $69. The market called it to the penny. That precision should comfort you. It doesn’t comfort me. Despite a 160 point bounce off Tuesday’s lows, the volatility futures have not normalized. They are not even close. The term structure from April through

Gianni Di Poce has been bearish since the end of January. Today, he started buying. The reason comes down to one chart that changes everything about this pullback. After the Iran attack sent futures gapping lower over the weekend, the S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since late November. The Dow dropped to levels

The U.S. initiated a conflict with Iran over the weekend. Brandon Chapman just broke down why the S&P 500’s flat session is the most dangerous signal of the day. Oil spiked 8%. Treasuries sold off hard. Gold rallied. The S&P 500 moved 0.01%. That tells you the equity market has not priced in what happens

The VIX almost hit 22 today. The last time it was there, the S&P 500 was trading at 6750. Today it’s at 6840. Volatility is pricing in risk that the index hasn’t acknowledged yet. That disconnect is the single most important signal in the market right now. The S&P 500 has been trapped in a

Blake Young just flagged a stat that stopped me cold. Roughly 60% of Klarna’s buy now, pay later volume is being used to buy groceries. When consumers are financing their food, the financial companies holding that debt are in trouble. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has been stuck in a range all month. Volume is getting