Historical Volatility vs. Implied Volatility

[video_player type=”youtube” width=”560″ height=”315″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cueW91dHViZS5jb20vd2F0Y2g/dj1xSU9zOE52MUhkSSZmZWF0dXJlPXlvdXR1LmJl[/video_player] TheoTraders look for disparages between historical volatility and implied volatility to determine what kind of an edge the market is giving us. TheoTraders love nothing better than to sell premium. However, that’s not what the market is giving us right now. The SPX implied volatility is telling us that it is more advantageous to be a premium buyer. TheoTraders use in/out spreads to minimize risk. Get the In Out Spreads class here: https://theotrade.com/spreads-class/

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Is the Bubble about to burst?

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9kVVEwV1dvTkFsYw==[/video_player] TheoTraders look back at past bubbles in the market to look for similarities within the markets today. It is important that TheoTraders keep risk at a minimum during a time when volatility can explode at anytime. Let’s look at some of the pitfalls of trading in today’s market so you can avoid them and become a consistent trader.

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The Brexit, the brally, and the brutal reality

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS96NEZNamQwN00xTQ==[/video_player] TheoTraders must zero in on where the risk is in the market. Let’s look at a comparison chart of the bonds, gold, and stocks. This will help us determine whether or not risk is still on the table.

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Is the Panic Over?

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9aM0J0enFGMG5tQQ==[/video_player] A strong 3 day rally takes the S&P back to nearly pre-Brexit levels. Is the panic over? Well, let’s go back and look at some other past events in recent stock market history. Also, we will look at a few fractal charts to determine some possible trade entries.

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This is a Hallmark of Volatility

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9aczJEeHUyOXNKMA==[/video_player] TheoTraders, today’s move was a hallmark sign of volatility. The question is – when do you get short again? And that’s why we get these explosive moves to the upside. Traders try to short these up moves all the way up. Remember, it’s all about duration over direction. Here’s how to handle the volatility…

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Volatility Continues as Trouble Overseas Grow

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS82X3BCSlFfdzVLMA==[/video_player] The markets have some strong headwinds to overcome. From a fundamental perspective multinational companies have a lot of currency risk at stake. From a geopolitical point of view “global Order” has been rocked as the movement towards nationalism and away from globalism continue to gain steam. And tonight we look at the markets breaking down from a technical perspective.

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The do’s and don’ts of Trading Volatility

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS94SzA0UnpDQnc1Yw==[/video_player] TheoTraders be aware of what to do and what not to do in volatility. Whether you’re looking to sell the rally or buy the dip here are some ideas for you. The risk continues to be to the downside. That doesn’t mean jump in and buy puts. There will be time for trade. It’s very important that TheoTraders be patient in this market. Here’s what you can expect going forward.

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Pop and Drop Market?

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS8wQ0NsZ2Q2MmgxYw==[/video_player] Should I stay or should I go now? If I go there will be trouble An’ if I stay it will be double So come on and let me know The Clash lyrics have never been more fitting as the UK decides whether or not they are staying in the EU. Results are tonight. The markets rallied today as expectations are for a stay vote. However, TheoTraders know the first move is not necessarily the last. Here’s what to expect tomorrow. https://theotrade.com/docspread

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What to Expect with Brexit

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9OdTZHcTBYQ1k3bw==[/video_player] It’s important to determine which risk metrics that TheoTraders use in the next 2 days. Implied volatility in the SPX is rising as we speak ahead of the much anticipated British referendum. Here’s what I’m expecting over the next 2 days and how to protect & profit during this pivotal time in the market.

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Is Market Risk Still About the Brexit Vote?

[video_player type=”youtube” youtube_remove_logo=”Y” width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″]aHR0cHM6Ly95b3V0dS5iZS9QNHpkQXlJV0Q3bw==[/video_player] TheoTraders look at all the market correlations to determine what’s exactly happening inside the market. For example, we look at the US Bonds which has made a huge move higher ahead of the Brexit vote. Today, with the “leave” possibility off the table you would expect Bonds to have a much more severe reaction lower. So where is the perceived risk in these markets coming from? Let’s find out in tonight’s video.

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Don Kaufman Don Kaufman

TheoTrade co-founder, former CBOE market maker and thinkorswim Chief Derivatives Instructor.

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