[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] So, the S&Ps are flat as a pancake. We’re scraping all-time highs, we’re hugging the edge of the expected move for dear life, but this is like watching paint dry. But beneath the surface suckage there’s real opportunity. When you’re in a market that’s priced for perfection, finding the best setups can be tough, but that’s why we’re all here, right? This is exactly the kind of day that separates the pros from the passive. I’m going to show you how to trade through the slow, soul-crushing summer grind and still find high-probability setups. I’m talking Nvidia (NVDA), JPMorgan (JPM), Uber (UBER) – names that are moving big even when the index is doing next to nothing. We’re diving deep into expected move, volume drops, skew shifts and high-probability profits. Let’s get to it…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks are ripping higher and flirting with fresh all-time highs, thanks to a surprise ceasefire deal between Israel and Iran that appears, for now, to be holding up. Heading into yesterday’s session, it seemed to me that geopolitical tensions were peaking, and the markets’ setups seemed to agree. Now there’s “room at the table” for other catalysts. Fed honcho Powell is hinting at rate cuts, and tech stocks are beginning to break out. So it looks like the call wasn’t far-fetched at all. Once again, the “end of the world” turned out to be the ultimate bullish catalyst. And staying true to our discipline at the close saved us from a lot of unnecessary panic over the last 48 hours. As I said a moment ago, tech’s impending “reset” breakout has my attention, and crypto continues to flash opportunity after

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Iran and Israel have been at odds for more than 45 years, but about 10 days ago, the long-simmering conflict boiled over massively into barrage after missile barrage between the two countries – thousands of missiles have flown. Over the weekend, the US military entered the fray when it dropped as many as 14 bunker-busters and lobbed up to 24 Tomahawk cruise missiles at “sensitive” Iranian targets. Iran’s parliament has demanded the closure of the geopolitically critical Strait of Hormuz. It’s not their call, but this 21-mile-wide chokepoint sees around 20% of global crude production flow through to markets in China, India, Japan, and beyond. And as of this afternoon, there are credible reports the Iranians have attacked US military installations across the Gulf in Qatar. The markets’ overall reaction may seem muted, but, when you zoom in, it’s anything

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] At the start of this week, I clocked a 129.03 expected move on the SPX. In a four-day trading week, no less. That’s massive. That’s just shy of absolute mayhem. That’s a trader’s dream. Too bad we didn’t get it. Not even close. Missiles are flying as we speak between Tehran and Tel Aviv and oil prices are headed north in a hurry. This geopolitical risk is sustained; this isn’t a flareup that’ll be over by Monday. There are huge spending concerns in the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” and we’re closing in on the end of that “90-day window” of tariff relief Trump talked about, well, close to 90 days ago now. Tech stocks, the secret sauce in any good rally, are coming under pressure now, too. I’m not saying this to freak you out, I’m mentioning this because any one

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There are times when everything just clicks and the bulls run wild and you can safely go long by throwing a dart at a list of big-caps. Right now… isn’t one of those times. To say the situation is dicey is like calling the Grand Canyon a hole in the ground. Bombs are dropping in Iran and Israel; there’s a distinct possibility our bombs will start in there, too. Russia and Ukraine are doing what they’ve been doing for the past three years. On the market front, we’ve got sticky inflation that’s threatening to metastasize into full-blown stagflation – copper and gold are telling the tale there. And we have a Federal Reserve chair who’s been completely overtaken and painted into a corner but pretty hawkish at the same time. So… without flogging a dead horse, this is the time

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks are chopping around all over the place today, drifting lower overall. The energy sector, as tracked by the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) ETF is absolutely ripping to the upside; it’s up more than 3.5% for the five-day and has added more than 1% today alone. A couple of names in the sector especially are doing well. We’ll talk about what a surge in energy means for the bull market’s prospects shortly. Of course, an important reason for energy’s surge is the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. Headline risks are elevated but when you’re trading a volatile tape like this, remember to stay focused on what matters most – the price action. Nothing else warrants making a decision. And based on what I’m seeing in the tape, there are some reasons to believe this conflict in the Middle

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Heads up: Don and I are going live on Wednesday to show everyone the “Squeeze Bar” strategy I used to go 18 for 18 in trades. We’ll look at some different plays tonight. You remember the movie Top Gun? When Maverick has a bogey on his six, and he hits the brakes to let the bad guy fly past him… and squarely into his gunsights? It pays to be nimble and cultivate your ability to change direction in a hurry. If you’ve been paying attention, you’re up to speed on all the news coming from Iran and Israel, the civil strife and unrest in the US and abroad. So far, this market’s summer has been heavily news-driven – “headline sensitive,” if you will – and that doesn’t look like it’s ending anytime soon. It seems like maybe Maverick’s sweet piloting

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Mmm… Taste that? The markets this week cooked up something we haven’t had in a while: real, fast-moving, sell-side pressure. This market has felt invincible to the retail crowd for a while now, but the truth is markets are rarely that. This isn’t just about bombs dropping or crude oil spiking 7% in a single session. What we’re staring down now are deep structural concerns in the markets. I’m talking about volatility that’s rising without panic, bonds that should be rallying but aren’t, and financials taking the brunt of the damage. Tonight, we’re going to cut through the noise and dig into the signals that matter: the volatility box, the behavior of hedging flows, and what the lack of bond buying is telling us about where risk really sits. (Spoiler alert: it’s not actually in the headlines, it’s under the

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’ve been talking a lot about inflation, and this week gave us even more to chew on in terms of CPI and PPI seeming to show a slowdown – disinflation. The textbooks will tell you that disinflation happens when inflation is still running positive but is compressing and slowing down. The data is a classic mixed bag; month over month, CPI is down, but it actually rose for the year, from 2.3% to 2.5%. That was cooler than the expected 2.5%, but it’s still undeniably climbing. These “sort-of-but-not-really” declines are happening against a backdrop of increasing energy prices – the XLE enery ETF is up nearly 5% in the past five days, though it’s still slightly negative for the year. Oil prices are off their lows and breaking through key levels. We’re going to look at CPI, PPI and how

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We talk about markets “drifting” higher or lower, but that’s a figure of speech. Markets don’t just “drift” – momentum builds, positioning shifts, and suddenly you find yourself staring at what feels like the edge of a reversal. Like a tipping point. The S&Ps are down just 23 handles heading into the close, but don’t let that small decline fool you: Underneath, volatility is on the move. The “box” we’ve been stuck in is in play. And when I say “volatility,” I’m not talking about the VIX – I mean the VVIX, the volatility of volatility. The VVIX is screaming, folks. I’m watching hedging activity ramp up at off-the-charts volumes here. When pros move to cover their downside risk after good news, you’ve gotta wonder what it is they know that everyone else doesn’t. Cooling CPI, softening market internals, and