[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There are times when everything just clicks and the bulls run wild and you can safely go long by throwing a dart at a list of big-caps. Right now… isn’t one of those times. To say the situation is dicey is like calling the Grand Canyon a hole in the ground. Bombs are dropping in Iran and Israel; there’s a distinct possibility our bombs will start in there, too. Russia and Ukraine are doing what they’ve been doing for the past three years. On the market front, we’ve got sticky inflation that’s threatening to metastasize into full-blown stagflation – copper and gold are telling the tale there. And we have a Federal Reserve chair who’s been completely overtaken and painted into a corner but pretty hawkish at the same time. So… without flogging a dead horse, this is the time

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks are chopping around all over the place today, drifting lower overall. The energy sector, as tracked by the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) ETF is absolutely ripping to the upside; it’s up more than 3.5% for the five-day and has added more than 1% today alone. A couple of names in the sector especially are doing well. We’ll talk about what a surge in energy means for the bull market’s prospects shortly. Of course, an important reason for energy’s surge is the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel. Headline risks are elevated but when you’re trading a volatile tape like this, remember to stay focused on what matters most – the price action. Nothing else warrants making a decision. And based on what I’m seeing in the tape, there are some reasons to believe this conflict in the Middle

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Heads up: Don and I are going live on Wednesday to show everyone the “Squeeze Bar” strategy I used to go 18 for 18 in trades. We’ll look at some different plays tonight. You remember the movie Top Gun? When Maverick has a bogey on his six, and he hits the brakes to let the bad guy fly past him… and squarely into his gunsights? It pays to be nimble and cultivate your ability to change direction in a hurry. If you’ve been paying attention, you’re up to speed on all the news coming from Iran and Israel, the civil strife and unrest in the US and abroad. So far, this market’s summer has been heavily news-driven – “headline sensitive,” if you will – and that doesn’t look like it’s ending anytime soon. It seems like maybe Maverick’s sweet piloting

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Mmm… Taste that? The markets this week cooked up something we haven’t had in a while: real, fast-moving, sell-side pressure. This market has felt invincible to the retail crowd for a while now, but the truth is markets are rarely that. This isn’t just about bombs dropping or crude oil spiking 7% in a single session. What we’re staring down now are deep structural concerns in the markets. I’m talking about volatility that’s rising without panic, bonds that should be rallying but aren’t, and financials taking the brunt of the damage. Tonight, we’re going to cut through the noise and dig into the signals that matter: the volatility box, the behavior of hedging flows, and what the lack of bond buying is telling us about where risk really sits. (Spoiler alert: it’s not actually in the headlines, it’s under the

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’ve been talking a lot about inflation, and this week gave us even more to chew on in terms of CPI and PPI seeming to show a slowdown – disinflation. The textbooks will tell you that disinflation happens when inflation is still running positive but is compressing and slowing down. The data is a classic mixed bag; month over month, CPI is down, but it actually rose for the year, from 2.3% to 2.5%. That was cooler than the expected 2.5%, but it’s still undeniably climbing. These “sort-of-but-not-really” declines are happening against a backdrop of increasing energy prices – the XLE enery ETF is up nearly 5% in the past five days, though it’s still slightly negative for the year. Oil prices are off their lows and breaking through key levels. We’re going to look at CPI, PPI and how

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We talk about markets “drifting” higher or lower, but that’s a figure of speech. Markets don’t just “drift” – momentum builds, positioning shifts, and suddenly you find yourself staring at what feels like the edge of a reversal. Like a tipping point. The S&Ps are down just 23 handles heading into the close, but don’t let that small decline fool you: Underneath, volatility is on the move. The “box” we’ve been stuck in is in play. And when I say “volatility,” I’m not talking about the VIX – I mean the VVIX, the volatility of volatility. The VVIX is screaming, folks. I’m watching hedging activity ramp up at off-the-charts volumes here. When pros move to cover their downside risk after good news, you’ve gotta wonder what it is they know that everyone else doesn’t. Cooling CPI, softening market internals, and

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Note: Gianni’s going over his entire third-quarter playbook tomorrow in his Trinity Trade “mini-masterclass.” Stocks are hanging around in slightly positive territory today, but I’m seeing a lot of choppy price action in individual names. This tells me something interesting – that there are corrections taking place… but through time instead of price. This might sound strange, but if you’ve been with me for a while, you’ll know corrections unfold both ways. That these corrections are happening in time is actually even more bullish than when prices correct back lower after a nice run higher. And that’s reflected in the big picture, too. Technology and chips are still running the tape – very bullish. Crypto is back on the upswing, signifying a risk-on appetite, and Ethereum specifically looks ready for a rip-your-face-off rally. With all that said, I’m a bit

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] These events have strange names, but the profit potential is no laughing matter. In fact, “squeezequakes,” when they happen and you spot them correctly, can be a game-changer! See, in my MasterMind class, I help traders identify what I call “Ghost Prints,” the telltale signs whales and other big market players leave behind that can point out significant options trades. These trades can create scenarios whereby you can see a “gamma squeeze” in the price of a stock. “Gamma squeeze? Ghost print? Squeezequake?” I can hear you ask. Well, this shorthand helps me define massive money-making opportunities. A gamma squeeze can happen when there are thousands of contracts bought in a hurry. Now, there’s a market maker on the other side of that trade and that market maker is exposed. That’s not a position they want to be in, so

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Once again, we find ourselves locked in the volatility box. You remember: it’s tight, tense, and ready to snap. This time we’ve got major cracks reappearing in the bond market – the market serious traders watch but everyone else ignores until it’s on fire. Then again, serious traders understand just how systemically important bonds are, and they will threaten the S&P 500 as capital tries to rebalance in a crazy macro environment. And when I say crazy, I’m not kidding around. Thursday morning Blake Young and I watched copper – boring-#% copper, one of the most reliable economic indicator-commodities on Earth – move 3% in minutes. That’s because of tariffs. Because of a report of a “phone call” between Trump and Xi – nothing more substantive than that. Tariffs are still out there, still on the menu, and still capable

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I spent the day watching a fragile market dance on a very thin tightrope. If you’ve been with me for a while, you’ll know how important I think monkey bars are; I use them constantly in selecting my trades. Well, the S&P 500 just rejected the 50% monkey bar level – more on that in a few, but it’s enough to say right here that this could mark the beginning of a meaningful top. We’ve got bearish divergence on the charts, softening job data, and key levels giving way.  I think the story underneath all of this is the legendary “American consumer” – that mythical creature who drives more than 70% of US GDP. Payroll processor ADP released disastrous numbers, unemployment claims look to be surging, and tomorrow, we’ve got nonfarm payrolls. If that number misses the way ADP’s did,