[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I can’t blame investors for being skeptical at all. After a six-week stretch like the one we just came through, with its huge swings on the big indexes, the rise and fall… and rise… of critical sectors, and chaotic, near-total uncertainty from day to day, people are feeling punch-drunk. And so when stocks exploded off the launch pad this week on favorable trade developments between the United States and China, well, it’s understandable to be leery. But I’m here to tell you you can believe it. Or, at the very least, you shouldn’t fight it. My readers were in position well ahead of Sunday’s trade news because we’re using a cyclical and sector model that pointed to the likelihood of more upside for this market. And now others can come along, too. Technology, semiconductors, and crypto are still outperforming right

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] You hear the term “pain trade” thrown around the financial media sometimes. Here’s the Cliff’s Notes definition: It’s the trade that delivers the most pain to the most investors. As the market rallies nearly 3%, it’s time for us to reckon with our pain trade. What’s going to cause the greatest amount of pain to your portfolio? Do you have an idea of market direction or a theme that would hurt your positions the most? See, it’s not hard to imagine quite a few folks out there who were overweight in bearish positions – a lot of bearish exposure – which is understandable given where the market was just 40 hours ago. But that was then, this is now. If today’s big move higher is upsetting your P/L, are you ready to reverse course and join the very crowded bullish

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Jerome Powell and the Fed gave us nothing this week – they gave nothing because they know nothing. That left markets with no catalysts; nothing to rally on, nothing to tank on, either. What that looks like is a calm market, but this market isn’t calm… …it’s coiling up. Like a trap. This stagnant S&P 500 is a trade-war Tweet away from a 200-handle move. Just what direction that move will take, well, that’s up to the trade war. Bulls and bears are a misstep away from walking into a buzzsaw. In a market like this, which I’ll show you in a second, I’m leaning hard into butterfly spreads and my special “catapult” moves. Let me show you what I mean here…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The market’s flashing signs of life, and it has been for a few sessions now, but I’m not pushing all my chips in just yet.  Yes, the S&P 500 gave us a Bollinger band breakout, and sectors like industrials and financials are leading the charge. Financials, as tracked by the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) broke through resistance, hinting at early strength, while the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) cleared multi-month highs.  I’m looking at some other very bullish setups – including some big stocks – that hint at an early recovery, too.  But I can’t deny the broader picture doesn’t fully support the bullish narrative. A trade deal with China is still in science-fiction territory, and more concretely, copper is flat, gold has pulled back, and crude oil remains in bearish territory.  Let’s ignore what we’d like

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Markets feel broken and disconnected – they have for a long time now. Today just put a fine point on it. The Fed came, they saw… they did absolutely nothing. No rate cut, no real direction, just wait and see. Yet despite that, while J-Po was spinning his nothingburger, the S&P 500s floated higher with painfully thin liquidity. That’s troubling. This isn’t healthy trade; this is a marketplace skating on ambiguity. Look at Google’s drop, Nvidia’s bid, and volatility still steep in backwardation. None of that points to clarity. As far as this market’s concerned, tariffs (and China) now hold the cards. Until that uncertainty shakes out, expect sharp, violent moves on headlines. But I’m not saying this to bum you out. With the right risk protection, there are plenty of juicy targets out there. I’m focusing on out-of-the-money plays

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The FOMC meeting has started, and tomorrow we’ll get minutes, commentary from the Chairman, and – maybe – some fireworks. But as of today, we’re seeing, essentially, backfilling in stocks. The day began with some selling but, as we approach the closing bell, the bulls have come back into the picture. This is all taking place against a backdrop of what seems to be renewed hope for the bulls in general. The tech sector has cemented itself as the top performer of the past month, although industrials took that spot last week. Precious metals are blowing the market out of the water (again), as well. And so, as we head into tomorrow, I want to remind you that… tomorrow isn’t the day that really counts. Thursday, after the market has had time to digest everything, is the day to watch

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Let’s say an athlete ties a record that’s stood untested for 20 years. Is the performance a fluke or one-off? Or is it a sign that the record might fall soon, that something bigger is coming down the road? What’s the proper perspective? With the market wracked by uncertainty, that’s the question in front of traders right now. Over the past couple of months, it’s been difficult to gauge the direction and magnitude of market moves. Any given Tuesday’s mild selloff could become Friday’s all-out 10% rout… or Friday could bring another run at record highs. Yes, the top in February was pretty well telegraphed, but what no one knew at the time was whether the selloff would be 5% or 20%. The worst position you can be in right now is thinking that you know what is about to

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] If you’ve been with me for more than two-and-a-half minutes, you’ll know I’m the first one to call BS on a rally I think doesn’t have what it takes, that I’m sure will trap unwary traders and clean ‘em out. This rally happens to be the real thing. After a really long stretch, volatility has declined in a meaningful way. Big tech earnings aren’t a fakeout; these guys really are leading the market right now. We’re up 90-plus handles today alone, and the Nasdaq wiped out its April losses. But… I can’t give the all-clear yet. The rally’s real, yes, and it’s rewarding chumps hand over fist, but it’s on pretty thin ice. There’s still way too much headline risk flying around out there – the trade war is a Tweet away from crushing gains, and today’s not-terrible nonfarm payrolls

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Remember that old line about how the markets “can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent?” Well, here we are, and while savvy traders like us don’t have to worry about staying in the green, the market still feels like a puzzle where none of the pieces fit quite right. Economic signals are flashing recession: weak JOLTS, negative ADP numbers, rising unemployment claims, tariffs, lousy consumer sentiment. I could go on, but I don’t actually want to depress you. Suffice to say it’s rough out there. Yet tech refuses to play along, that is, to roll over and die. Instead, we’re seeing breakouts. Microsoft (MSFT), after stellar earnings, is teasing another leg higher after a pullback to the $406 to $407 range. Meanwhile, Marvell (MRVL) and Micron (MU) are quietly staging basing patterns, hinting at directional swings with strong

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The number is in… and it wasn’t great. Today’s economic data dump showed growth shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 – the first decline since 2022’s kinda-sorta recession-lite. One more quarter of contraction and we’re in a recession. The markets know this, and they’re not crazy about it, and what volume there was was largely into selling tech stocks. (Nvidia picked up another downgrade, but that’s a whole ‘nother story.) We got a 38-handle decline on the S&P 500, after the bulls fought back a little at midday. I’m surprised it wasn’t worse. I mean, these numbers were bad. The ADP jobs report was extremely weak, too, and the cherry on top was a PCE number that showed inflation is still on the hot side. There’s more data coming, too. Nonfarm payrolls, a ton of earnings like