[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The FOMC meeting has started, and tomorrow we’ll get minutes, commentary from the Chairman, and – maybe – some fireworks. But as of today, we’re seeing, essentially, backfilling in stocks. The day began with some selling but, as we approach the closing bell, the bulls have come back into the picture. This is all taking place against a backdrop of what seems to be renewed hope for the bulls in general. The tech sector has cemented itself as the top performer of the past month, although industrials took that spot last week. Precious metals are blowing the market out of the water (again), as well. And so, as we head into tomorrow, I want to remind you that… tomorrow isn’t the day that really counts. Thursday, after the market has had time to digest everything, is the day to watch

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Let’s say an athlete ties a record that’s stood untested for 20 years. Is the performance a fluke or one-off? Or is it a sign that the record might fall soon, that something bigger is coming down the road? What’s the proper perspective? With the market wracked by uncertainty, that’s the question in front of traders right now. Over the past couple of months, it’s been difficult to gauge the direction and magnitude of market moves. Any given Tuesday’s mild selloff could become Friday’s all-out 10% rout… or Friday could bring another run at record highs. Yes, the top in February was pretty well telegraphed, but what no one knew at the time was whether the selloff would be 5% or 20%. The worst position you can be in right now is thinking that you know what is about to

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] If you’ve been with me for more than two-and-a-half minutes, you’ll know I’m the first one to call BS on a rally I think doesn’t have what it takes, that I’m sure will trap unwary traders and clean ‘em out. This rally happens to be the real thing. After a really long stretch, volatility has declined in a meaningful way. Big tech earnings aren’t a fakeout; these guys really are leading the market right now. We’re up 90-plus handles today alone, and the Nasdaq wiped out its April losses. But… I can’t give the all-clear yet. The rally’s real, yes, and it’s rewarding chumps hand over fist, but it’s on pretty thin ice. There’s still way too much headline risk flying around out there – the trade war is a Tweet away from crushing gains, and today’s not-terrible nonfarm payrolls

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Remember that old line about how the markets “can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent?” Well, here we are, and while savvy traders like us don’t have to worry about staying in the green, the market still feels like a puzzle where none of the pieces fit quite right. Economic signals are flashing recession: weak JOLTS, negative ADP numbers, rising unemployment claims, tariffs, lousy consumer sentiment. I could go on, but I don’t actually want to depress you. Suffice to say it’s rough out there. Yet tech refuses to play along, that is, to roll over and die. Instead, we’re seeing breakouts. Microsoft (MSFT), after stellar earnings, is teasing another leg higher after a pullback to the $406 to $407 range. Meanwhile, Marvell (MRVL) and Micron (MU) are quietly staging basing patterns, hinting at directional swings with strong

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The number is in… and it wasn’t great. Today’s economic data dump showed growth shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 – the first decline since 2022’s kinda-sorta recession-lite. One more quarter of contraction and we’re in a recession. The markets know this, and they’re not crazy about it, and what volume there was was largely into selling tech stocks. (Nvidia picked up another downgrade, but that’s a whole ‘nother story.) We got a 38-handle decline on the S&P 500, after the bulls fought back a little at midday. I’m surprised it wasn’t worse. I mean, these numbers were bad. The ADP jobs report was extremely weak, too, and the cherry on top was a PCE number that showed inflation is still on the hot side. There’s more data coming, too. Nonfarm payrolls, a ton of earnings like

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The bulls out there have the momentum right now, the makings of a real beachhead… for now… in the near-term. Of course, that beachhead could be swamped by the end of this week with so many Big Tech earnings coming down the pipeline. There’s data to contend with, too. Tomorrow’s GDP reading will be essential; it’ll give us a glimpse into the current impact of tariffs. That notwithstanding, there have been some positive developments in the markets’ internals over the past few weeks – that cannot and should not be ignored. What’s more, there’s strong evidence that Bitcoin has bottomed, too, which bodes well for near-term risk appetite. We just need the bond market to cooperate to keep volatility contained. Here’s what I see happening…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Remember the movie Braveheart? There’s a scene where the Scottish are about to battle the English, and Mel Gibson’s William Wallace is telling his soldiers to “hold!” His point was: Wait for the perfect moment to engage the English in battle. When both sides begin to set up for battle, it makes sense that someone might engage too early and blow it! By holding and picking the moment, the Scots were able to inflict the most damage on the English. So, on that note… “Hold!” As the market grinds – and, today, pauses – it’s all to easy to step out ahead and tip your hand early. The difference between this market and Braveheart is we don’t have a leader telling us when to step up for a shot at greatness. This is where strategy is so important. It makes

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 closed up nearly 5.6% after an absolutely wild week. We had a brutal selloff Monday only to rip right back to where we’re closing today. That puts us at about the halfway point between the index’s low and high. But we’ve got to have perspective; it took pure chaos to get us here, around the expected move and back again. But don’t get carried away – it’s not all fun and games. Participation is absolutely anemic and so is volume. We’re one tweet away from returning to the mayhem that kicked off after “Liberation Day.” The market is moving like one giant correlated beast right now, and it’d be very easy for that beast to go down. More than ever we want carefully defined risk – like our WFC short in Three Trades a Week. I’ve got

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] On the surface, the headlines look pretty good, certainly less bad than they were a week ago. We’ve had some more data filter in in the meantime, but we shouldn’t be fooled: data isn’t the trend.   For instance, we’ve seen durable goods spike and new home sales rise… right? Well, net-net home sales are falling and durable goods numbers are due for revisions – probably lower.   No, price is telling us the real story here, and it’s pointing toward some defined-risk moves that’ll let us scoop up premium, too.   Now let’s look at some stocks…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We opened with a huge move to the upside this morning. The market’s liking what it’s hearing right now in terms of cooling off the trade war and Elon Musk leaving D.C. to go back to Tesla (after one hell of an earnings miss yesterday). The VIX dropped below 30 and stayed there for the first time since early April – more warm, fuzzy feelings for a market that’s been put through the wringer. But by mid-morning some of the air came out of the tires and the market started to drift lower – still up, but the selling was unmistakable. Folks, this rally has all the hallmarks of a rip-your-face-off event; it looks a lot like a bear market rally. Correlation? Check. Stubbornly high volatility? Check. Let’s look under the hood and see what’s really happening here – this