[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] What’s in a name? I asked our TheoChat trading room members whether we’re in a bull or a bear market. A clear supermajority replied that they felt we were in a bull market. When I asked how they defined it, the typical answer was, “higher highs and higher lows.” But the answer just prompted more questions… When determining whether we’re in a bull or bear market, does it come down to price trends? Or is there something more encompassing? Does a bull market mean buying anything and everything in hopes the rising market tide will lift your boats? From a technical analysis perspective, at least, there is a distinction between bullish trends and a bull market. “Semantics!” you say… and you’re probably right since there’s actually little point in defining the market in such black-and-white terms. In the end, markets

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] You know how it goes – markets get shaky but one or more trillion-dollar mega-caps drag ‘em kicking and screaming higher. We heard that story who-knows-how-many times in 2024. Usually NVDA was the workhorse; sometimes it was TSLA or AAPL. But this is 2025. This is the market’s “new day.” And right now it’s the mega-caps that are shaky and a handful of lucky rotations are what’s keeping this market from taking a dive. In fact, the charts I’ll show you in a second show that the trade in those monster stocks is about to unwind. Increasing correlation will be the sign to pull the ripcord. So get ready now. Tonight I’ll show you where to be short, where to be long, and where to be out of the way…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Gross domestic product is the single broadest, cleanest measure of the health and growth of the economy. The number we got today missed the forecast and came in significantly worse than the previous quarter, to boot. How big was the miss? Big – 3.1% during the previous quarter down to 2.3% today. But, there’s a major asterisk to contend with, too: What we got today, of course, was advance GPD, which is the earliest measure and also the most likely to provoke a reaction in stocks. Today, that was enough to knock stocks back on their heels a bit before recovering to end the day just in the green. We’re not out of the woods yet, though, because GDP revisions look to be more or less downward. If those revisions hold water, we’ll likely be looking at sub-2% growth here

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There are a ton of earnings hitting us today and over the next few days – Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride. But that’s later. We need to push that aside. There are bigger things to be concerned about right now. The market went into its usual pre-FOMC holding pattern, drifting around sideways… until a “classic” Trump tweet triggered a drop. (Oh yeah, they’re back!) We got the Fed announcement, which was really a giant nothing-burger. But we’ve got major volatility set to be unleashed shortly – here’s what to do…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] DeepSeek sent the big indexes anywhere from -1.5% to -3.1% “deeper” yesterday, but as we approach the closing bell today we’re now well into a recovery. At a time like this it’s important to remember that one day doesn’t break a trend. It doesn’t make one, either. In fact, there’s a lot to like in tech at the moment, especially since a great deal of froth and dead wood have been cleared away. I particularly like the strength I see in the software segment, and I think it’s likely software will emerge as a leader in the wider tech tech sector. Looking further afield, I think precious metals are irresistible right now. Gold quietly closed at its highest levels in history this past Friday – a 5,000-year high looks great on any chart. We’ve been building positions here already and

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’re all adults; we all know there are no “sure things.” Just the same, for the past two years, all the talking heads out there have been sure AI was set to revolutionize, well, everything. Sure – AI has been revolutionary and has transformative potential, but its reliance on infrastructure is a hurdle on the road to almost-guaranteed profits for investors. Now, to be fair, the incredible amount of capex spending companies have been throwing around has led to some increased scrutiny, but few if any mainstream media voices have questioned the need for infrastructure… …until now. The introduction of the new open-source DeepSeek AI from China has changed that entire narrative, at least for today. It’s prompted awkard questions: Is it really possible to generate the kind of performance as the big, resource-hungry American AI models with a fraction

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] So we got a nice bump for the week, for the most part, as the market gets more and more comfortable with the new administration. I can’t say it’s all good, though. I’d be doing you a disservice if I didn’t point out that there are a few reasons not to get too comfortable here. I’m not trying to freak you out; I’m not trying for perma-bear cred. You know me. If the trend’s bearish, I don’t cry about it – I just trade it. But the fact is that the big, professional traders out there are hedging. They’re hedging heavily. We’ll be able to track that with my charts here in a second. But these guys only do that because they think there’s considerable risk out there. We’ll look at what they’re looking at and then run through some

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Plenty of traders and investors, particularly new ones, tend to want to avoid the bond market, with its emphasis on debt, not equity, and its sensitivity to interest rates. That’s understandable, but bonds are easier – and, with the income they bring – more lucrative than you might think. What’s more, you don’t even need to own bonds to play along. I’ll show you what I mean; I’m watching a very bullish setup here as we speak. Speaking of income, I think investors should be in the dividend aristocrats now, too. These are companies who’ve hiked their dividend every year for 25 years. For income, these can be even bigger than bonds, and they’re also some of the best-run companies on the planet. And we’ll look at utilities, too, home to another bullish setup. These are classic defensive plays that

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In a bullish opening salvo, the new Trump administration announced the opening of the Stargate project. Now, this isn’t the Stargate that exported people from earth to an extragalactic planet, but rather a portal opening the way to artificial intelligence infrastructure investment in the United States. In this unveiling, Japan’s SoftBank announced a $100 billion investment, with OpenAI taking operational responsibility and other tech giants throwing in for the AI infrastructure plan. The news helped bolster an otherwise listless market; tech names like Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Arm Holdings (ARM), and Oracle (ORCL) moved sharply higher following the announcement. These tech companies may have SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son to thank for today’s shot in the arm, but Netflix (NFLX) should be thanking their subscribers for lifting the stock nearly 10%. The streaming giant’s earnings report indicated subscriber growth exploded in

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’ve been through the “Trump rally,” the “Trump slump,” the “Trump bump,” and now… just Trump, as the first full trading day of the new administration comes to a close. Space stocks, which are in the Million-Dollar Challenge portfolio, did well, with big moves underway. Broadly speaking, many stocks responded well, with the big index up nearly 0.8% in very late trading. But, like I always say, we should be taking the long view here; a day’s gains are nice, but we want to keep our eyes on the months, quarters, and years ahead. With that in mind, if Trump’s “drill baby, drill” soundbite becomes “drill baby, drill” as a matter of national policy, we can likely look forward to a very bullish run for stocks. And not just American stocks – keep your eyes on Sector Leader Bullseye for