[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’ve been waiting for it! We’re getting something that looks like a rebound… but isn’t really. I’ll be “that guy”: Fade the rip. If you don’t know what that means, well, you will by the time tonight’s video’s done. A lot of people out there will be all over this “rebound,” but they’re making a mistake if they’re doing anything heavier than getting in and out quickly. There’s not a lot to love about today’s rally, and even less to bet on. I’m going to show you what’s really happening here and the smart way to play it…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The CPI and PPI releases this week came in more or less at estimates – nothing to alarm the talking heads, anyway. They show inflation slowing down… but not receding. This isn’t a surprise to anyone who’s been paying attention. While this was good enough for the bulls to at least try for a rally in an otherwise rough week, they didn’t manage to make it stick. I think a lot of them are simply looking in the wrong place. Tonight we’re going to look at the top two sectors and all the opportunities there, plus a few other opportunities in some ETFs and individual stocks. Let’s get started…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The market tried for a rally off today’s CPI report, and we were up a little ahead of the close, but there’s no getting around it: Every bounce we’ve seen today (and stocks actually started rising in the pre-market) has been sold like it’s goin’ out of style. Every bounce. This brings us to volatility. It’s come down a little, but the VIX is still above 24 right now, and that really speaks volumes about the profound problems this market is facing – and how far we really are from a turnaround. If these were normal times, we might expect at least some short covering to push the market a little higher, but that’s not happening. Let’s look at exactly why – and what to do about it…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] You can’t separate the wild swings we’re seeing from the on-again, off-again, on-again tariffs, and the uncertainty that creates. The bulls are trying to buy any headlines that could be even remotely positive, and the bears are trying to sell the bad. And these conflicting “tariffs up, tariffs down” headlines are often coming within minutes of each other. So there’s no mystery about this volatility. Tariffs have this market freaked out, and for good reason: Around 19% of our trade is with Canada – forget China, forget Mexico – and that trade’s set to be heavily taxed. Commodities like oil, lumber, diamonds, silver, aluminum… you name it, Canada exports it and America buys it. Tonight, we’re going to take a close look at silver, which has been seeing some big moves lately and is set for even more. I think

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I don’t know about you, but I’m a tired bear. Sure, getting bearish at a good time usually works out great… but instinctually we want to be bullish, right? I wouldn’t go that far for myself, but you do reach a point when you want to see some sort of rally. Give me a nice short squeeze and then a nice buildup for the next advance (or decline) and I’ll be a happy camper. What I’m counseling here is: be pragmatic. It shouldn’t be about always going up or down. It can be nice to have a two-way market where analysis wins out and trade construction can help generate alpha. The “anyone can buy any breakout and make money”-type regime is boring and, just as bad, discounts real acumen. What I’m calling for here is market exceptionalism. Yes, people may

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The market action lately has been wild enough to make your head spin.  While some are calling a bottom, my analysis of the monthly charts tells a different story – one that suggests this selloff could just be getting started. Here’s what’s keeping me up at night: How the “selective selling” we’re seeing now could actually signal DEEPER drops ahead (this pattern is eerily familiar…) The critical sector signals I’m watching in XLF, XLY, XLB, SMH, and XLU that will tell us if this is just rotation or something more sinister Why we haven’t seen true capitulation yet – and the specific correlation patterns that need to show up before we can call a bottom The “Big Boy Vol Backwardation” happening now and what it means for your trading Why those trusty moving averages you’ve been using? They could lead

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I love saving money as much as the next guy, but sometimes “discount” is not synonymous with “bargain.” That’s especially true of stocks. We’ve seen interest rates come down a bit over the last few weeks, which naturally has the talking heads talking up things like homebuilders, real estate, and real estate investment trusts (REITs) as “bargain buys.” We’re also seeing some homebuilders begin to bounce off their 52-week lows, which seems to give some weight to that argument, but, you’ll see in a second, that’s a bit premature. We’ve got to have some perspective here. Rates are only down around 0.6% overall. (That’s not enough to make a dent in the chart I’m going to show you.) So, if you haven’t guessed by now, I’m pretty bearish here, and tonight I’ll show you the smarter way to play three

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We got a 1.5%-ish rally this afternoon. After a sloppy start in the morning, by about 1:45 PM or so, stocks were going up with no looking back. Not that it was all gravy; some of the biggest stocks out there are down big-time for the past five days. In fact, I’ve got to be honest with you, this whole rally is probably doomed. No legs. One big, red, flashing signal: Volatility is still extremely high right now, with the VIX having topped 24.5 at one point today. In fact, volatility is in backwardation right now – more expensive the further out you go. More on that in a minute. High volatility in a rally is a sign that you shouldn’t trust the “bounce.” Like, at all. In fact, one of the biggest opportunities right now is to sell rallies.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The bulls took out some key technical lows today, and, as of this writing, shorts are getting squeezed in a lot of places. Crypto has been very volatile over the past few days, even after Trump’s announcement of a “strategic crypto reserve” consisting of a few select tokens. At the same time, the greenback is selling off. Does this mean all the market’s problems are solved? No… but I’d be lying if I told you the dollar selloff is bearish for stocks. Nevertheless, the best opportunities are still abroad in, you guessed it, China – a key focus of ours for weeks now. The outperformance there is impossible – negligent, at this point – to ignore. Still, there’s plenty of headline risk heading into this evening, so it’s important to stay nimble and keep cash levels healthy. Here’s how we’re

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] On February 18, 2025 I walked through a signal I got back on Valentine’s Day… The signal indicated a 5% to 10% correction in the market. How did I arrive at that figure? It’s simple. The selloff was of the severity you’d typically get following the signal given. Now, expecting a correction is one thing, but playing the reversal for profits is another. Well, I have a signal for that too! That being said, what happens when it’s not a run-of-the-mill correction? What happens if it turns into a more serious volatility event? (I addressed this in today’s First Mover Market Advantage, in fact.) Well, that’s the decision we need to make right now. We don’t have to be exactly right, just ready. That’s because we’ve already taken profits and we were hedged before the sell-off. Now it’s just deciding