[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The U.S. presidential election ends tomorrow; we’ll see results filter in throughout Tuesday’s trading session. Algorithms will be making judgements as to which markets and stocks will benefit from a Trump or Harris victory. For us mere humans, the outlook as to who will take the reins from President Biden is cloudy, but we need to keep tabs on the outlook for volatility. I think the best, most helpful way to look at these expectations is to view the situation like one big earnings statement. One of the most predictable elements of a post-earnings move is what volatility will do. Short-term volatility is initially high and back-month volatility is relatively low. After the event, short-term volatility gets crushed and we start to see a normal structure, with volatility rising over time. So let’s take a look at the volatility picture

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’ve come to the end of a long, wild week in the markets… …and we’re heading into what promises to be an even wilder week. The election is just part of it. This is what you need to know before Monday…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] For economists, especially those who’ve studied or even lived through the Seventies, there’s no scarier word than… stagflation. The mere mention of it fills market-watchers with dread. The word, and the concept, are a British import from the Sixties – probably better it was just the Beatles – during a prolonged stretch of low-to-no economic growth, spiraling prices, and elevated unemployment over there. We went through it in the Seventies, starting with the Nixon Shock and subsequent ‘73 oil crisis and didn’t come out of it until around 1982. So, for tonight’s trick, we’ll look at all the signs I’m seeing that point to a return of the old market bogeyman. There are plenty out there if you know where to look. And the treat? There are plenty of opportunities to prepare for and even profit from it. Turn out

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Earnings… employment… inflation… election. These are the risks looming out there – any of them, or all of them could upend the up-trend and ruin your day if you’re not prepared. But it’s not where the ball is, it’s where it’s going that’s going to matter here. The S&P 500 is down a little for the day as I write this, about 30 minutes before the close, but Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) earnings are less than an hour away, and those could spark significant moves. Those are just the first two hurdles we’ll have to clear. Let’s take a look…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks keep coiling near their all-time highs ahead of a slew of Big Tech earnings releases. In fact, by the time you read this, Google and Snapchat ought to have reported, and the releases won’t let up anytime soon. We’re also due to get a look at big inflation and employment reports this week, leading into an imminent Fed rate cut. And, lest we forget, there’s a presidential election next week. So, yes, headline risk is out there, creeping steadily higher. It’d be a mistake to ignore it. All the same, it’d be an even more grave mistake to hunker down and hide. Here’s why: Bitcoin is within spitting distance of its all-time high, while precious metals continue an impressive run of outperformance. We’ll talk about this and more tonight.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 finished modestly higher as crude oil slipped over 5% on the day. With oil down, you would think that U.S. Treasury bonds would be up as the inflation monster is further tamed. If that was your thought process, you would be wrong! While oil is only surface level analysis on the future of inflation, debt and deficits are much more structural. With the Treasury set to borrow over $500B dollars in the fourth quarter of 2024, the inflationary pressure can’t be set aside with a 5% decline in oil prices. What is the bottom line with a little over a week until election, runaway spending and geopolitical risk, take the money and run! Let’s look at how we can do that…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 and Dow are closing out the week with losses, despite a few up days here and there. The NASDAQ on the other hand is up… oooh… a whopping 0.35% in the past five days. As I’d say on any given morning, “massively unchanged!” Most of that NASDAQ gain is because Tesla kicked the tech index in its @#% with a decent earnings report and dragged it along for the ride. Unless something dies next week, tech as a whole is on track to have a decent month; XLK is sitting on a 2.7% October gain right now. Financials… well… they’re down bad. Bierman’s been hollering for more than a week about a bubble forming in asset managers and brokers, and he’s not wrong. Thanks to interest rate trouble, it looks like that might be coming to a

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] What a week – after fighting up to all time highs, it’s like the market keeps banging its head on higher highs and then shrinking away. It’s done that every single day this week, not really selling off, but not powering through, either. There’s a lot of low volume, and when you couple that with a failure to break out… well, we’ll talk about what that means. At the same time, we’re seeing action in our inflation yardsticks, gold and Treasuries – whether it’s gold going up or Treasuries going down or some combination of the two. We’ve got our hands full tonight. Let’s get right into it.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 has been… pretty boring lately, bouncing around in an extraordinarily tight range. But everything around stocks has been making huge moves. Gold, dollars, bonds – all seeing tremendous action to the up- and downside. But now we’re starting to see volatility creep back up – it always creeps before it punches you in the face, doesn’t it? And today we saw some of that sell-side activity bleed over into stocks. The dip-buyers are coming out, but the bear’s out of the bag. Here’s what you need to know…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] If you didn’t know any better, you’d think the market has been trying to lull traders to sleep over the past week. Nevertheless, stocks have continued to press up against their highs. The U.S. dollar continues to suck global capital into American markets, though we may see a temporary top around Election Day. At least, I’m not ruling it out. Outside of the headlines, I’ve been watching tremendous opportunities in financials (yes, you read that right), nuclear energy, and the tech sector. I’ve talked about a few of those already, but this is a long-term trend. Let’s look at what’s happening out there…