[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] S&P 500 – up. NASDAQ – really up. Dow30… down. When the big indexes or usually correlated assets stop moving together, that’s divergence, and it usually means something’s happening. Tech was absolutely screaming today, still pushing higher on Google’s “Willow” quantum computing narrative and overall optimism. And when you look at some of my usual suspects like financials, it really does seem like there’s nothing left to buy. In fact, the advance/decline line today is only 50/50. That means this rally isn’t really coming from across-the-board strength, which again points to, you guessed it, divergence. We’re going to look at some of the specific stocks in play right now and see how we can turn all this to our advantage…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’ve seen a big shift in sentiment over the past few sessions, with players moving from enthusiastically bullish to increasingly concerned with downside risks in the market. There’s no denying we’re extended way up here near the highs, and, at this point, I’d welcome a couple of weeks of sideways price action, the better to build up a robust new technical base for this bull market’s next leg higher. Crypto is taking a break, too, and precious metals just confirmed their long-term bull trend. And, as I’ll show you in a moment, there’s a lot to be excited about over the near- and long term. The future of technology (and the tech sector) is taking shape before our eyes. Take Google’s recent release of its “Willow” chip – it gets us closer to a useful large-scale quantum computer, and all

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 had its worst day in three weeks as it drifted lower by more than 0.5%. That number isn’t necessarily anything to write home about, but I’m seeing some things happening behind the scenes that, potentially, are ominous. Last week I gave you a signal from the volatility markets that we could be in for a 5% to 10% correction on the S&P 500. Sure enough, on Friday I monitored a surge in VIX Jan 22 2025 $20 calls. In other words, there’s a big bet on volatility out there. At the same time, volatility skew (the difference in volatility between at-, in-, and out-of-the money options) is near record highs. The three-month VIX is rising significantly relative to the 30-day VIX. That means risk levels are rising significantly. Today, I saw more significant call buying – more

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] This is a weird market – and not funny “weird.” It’s like a really impressively tall house of cards… with a super-shaky foundation. Traders are clearly bullish about AI (what else is new?), the possibility of rate cuts, and earnings. But we’ve been hitting these all-time highs on the back of some of the most anemic volume I can remember. Well, that’s mostly due to a relative handful of stocks. On the other hand, options volume is far above normal and SKEW is hitting all-time highs – more on that in a second. But the light volume tells me there’s very little conviction out there – no one wants to be the one to dive all the way in. At the same time, the FOMO fever out there is very real. Weird, right? Oh, and the VVIX is starting to

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In this morning’s Live Chat session, we talked about free cash flow. (You can check that session out below). I know, “free cash flow” doesn’t sound like a thrill a minute, and it certainly doesn’t generate headlines, even in the financial media, the way that mergers and acquisitions, innovative products, or boardroom scandals might. But I’m here to tell you, it’s one of the first things I look at before I even consider shelling out my hard-earned money on an investment. FCF is the secret sauce – the best companies have truckloads of it, and it’s one of the essential keys to rich dividend payouts. Tonight we’re going to look at how it fits into stocks in the consumer discretionary and energy spaces right now – two sectors I’m looking at intensely…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] When you’re trading, it pays (literally) to develop a list of “usual suspects” you can use to get a read on the market in a matter of seconds. Financials, energy, tech – those are a few of my usual suspects. What I see isn’t all that great… The other day it looked like Christmas came early, now it looks like it’s been cancelled – with a few exceptions Financials and energy are choking out. The advance/decline line of stocks going up vs. stocks going down is now decisively negative. But, man, take a look at tech – it’s the only game in town right now. Trouble is, I think that’s masking some underlying shifts that are going to hit the unprepared like a ton of bricks. Here’s what I see…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The rubber’s not hitting the road right now. Stocks are still hanging around their all-time highs, while the Nasdaq has yet to register a new one in a couple of weeks. For a while now, I’ve been looking for a new high there to confirm the way’s clear for the bulls to run. In other words, a new all-time Nasdaq high is the final box we need to tick for the bulls to go all-in on the market. Otherwise, the Magnificent Seven are seeing solid inflows Elsewhere conditions are favorable for a move higher; the energy is still deflationary, as are bonds, while the dollar tries to regain its footing. Crypto is looking strong, too, as Bitcoin tries to hit that $100,000 mark. Here’s what you need to know…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Historically, December is a very bullish time for the markets – even more so in election years. This usually comes down to the big players chasing performance, and jockeying for tax advantages in the year ahead. So from that perspective, a bet on an “up” December makes at least some sense. But – and this is a big “but” – the question is: Are you willing to bet most or all of your 2024 gains on that? In other words, bet the farm on a big December… or does it make more sense to mitigate risk, pull the ripcord and take some profit off the table? Because there are volatility-based indicators flashing at the moment. These indicators show risk levels rising, and taking some profits right now might be a smart move. Here’s why…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The last TheoNight update before December trading kicks off. Here’s Don…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Maybe they thought we wouldn’t notice, what with it being the day before Thanksgiving and all, but we got more than 15 major and minor economic data reports today – everything from GDP to jobs to crude oil stocks inventories and just about everything in between. Not everything in the reports was big news, and any traders that were on the ball today largely shrugged them off, anyway. But anyone who wasn’t paying attention will end up wishing they were. What I saw in the inflation data, income and spending-related reports points to a couple of big moves we need to start making now. I think we need to look again and the classic defensive sectors, like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. I’m seeing the potential for 10% moves in certain stocks before next month, and the year, are through.