The “Turkey Trade” Has Stocks Spinning Their Wheels

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] This trading pattern isn’t uncommon at this time of year as volume slackens a bit. Stocks are consolidating near their highs, while more tech stocks begin to behave bullishly. Disinflation is the name of the game, and that’s usually a good environment for stocks, especially Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). The big exception here is the semiconductor sector – chips. Stocks there are having a hard time maintaining the bid. Frankly, I’m a little concerned about this one and I’d like to see new all-time highs here to feel better about it. Bonds are starting a comeback… just in time for the collapse in oil prices I’ve been predicting. We’re seeing a move lower in crypto, too, but, as I’ll show you in a second, this is a true dip-buying opportunity. Here’s what you need to know…

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Bonds Pop, Gold Drops, and China Makes a Move

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Bonds and gold historically have a positive correlation; they tend to move together. But that’s been breaking up as of late, and that’s what happened today. Whether they’re breaking up for good is a different story. Treasuries saw their biggest rally since August, but gold had its biggest drop since the beginning of the month. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) had its worst day since early November, too. But I’m looking around the corner, at pre-move pulses that signal the next big move… Right now, it looks like that move will be coming out of China. (Interestingly, I’m not alone in thinking this; Don Kaufman sent an alert out for a long option trade on EEM last week, and Chinese stocks account for 25% of that fund’s weight. A rally in EEM typically occurs as the greenback weakens.) So, a

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Is Tech Losing Its Edge? Big Moves Coming Next Week

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] This week, the S&P 500 has been hugging the upper edge of its expected move with precision, and next week’s $72 expected move in 3.5 trading days is aggressive for a holiday week. Meanwhile, tech is lagging—Microsoft is flat, and Apple, Amazon, and Google aren’t driving the market. Instead, financials and energy are stealing the spotlight, with strong moves I’m positioned to capture. Even more concerning, there’s been odd action in S&P 500 futures that I suspect is tied to bond market pressure, while a rallying dollar and Bitcoin excess weigh on emerging markets. Complacency is creeping in as the Santa Claus rally approaches. Don’t get caught off guard. Watch my latest video for the full breakdown and my top trades.

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The Market Is Betting on a New U.S. Manufacturing Boom

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] After spending decades dismantling and exporting American industries, the folks in D.C. are suddenly all about bringing them back. And they’re having some success, to be sure. From where I’m standing, the market agrees. In fact, it looks like this trend is only going to accelerate. Industrial stocks, as tracked by the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI), are surging, and XLI itself looks like a great long-term trade. The sector is bucking the overall slowdown in equities right now. And when you get down into the nitty-gritty, it looks even more promising. Tonight, we’re going to look at electrical equipment stocks like Eaton (ETN), some aerospace and defense giants like Raytheon (RTN), Lockheed Martin (LMY, and others, and we’re going to see where the action is in machinery stocks like John Deere (DE) and Caterpillar (CAT). Let’s get into

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It’s Nvidia’s Market – We’re Just Trading In It

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I’m writing this in the weird netherworld between the cash close and Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings announcement… Surprisingly, equities finished higher today, despite some serious volatility. We’re getting consistent VIX readings above 17 and there were times during today’s session when it was knocking on the door of 19. Yikes. That gave us selling on rockin’ volume and then the bulls came back in swinging. Nvidia itself found a bid only in the last two hours of the trading session. I’ve got a bullish butterfly on in NVDA right now, so I’ll walk you through that was we await those earnings…

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The Markets Are Looking for Stability… And They’ll Probably Find It

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The markets were jolted this morning by the beat of war drums – an “update” to Russian nuclear doctrine said to be in response to Ukraine’s use of American missiles. This is only the latest setback for folks that have blindly chased the post-election rally. They’ve been feeling the pinch over the past week. But we’re following the strongest stocks – in the strongest sectors, to boot, and we’ve been sailing through the selloff with minimal problems. Crypto, Bitcoin in particular, continues to see vigorous buying. The nuclear energy sector looks good now, too. Elsewhere, interest rates seem to have found a temporary top, which could signal a breakdown in crude oil prices is around the corner. But through it all, I’m beginning to see improvement in the market’s internals and, with Nvidia’s highly anticipated third-quarter earnings set to hit

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Gold Is (Literally) Handing Us a Golden Opportunity

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] My approach to the market is to identify activity, or “pulses,” beneath the surface of the market that point to potential movement. These “pre-move pulses” are a strong indication of the potential success of a trade. Early last week, Tuesday, in fact, my gold charts began to show exactly this kind of activity. They’re still showing tempting signals. See, one of the “pulses” I monitor is option activity – it’s rarely steered us wrong. Let’s take a closer look at the opportunity in gold for a rebound off of its low in the coming weeks…

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You Need to Take This Selloff Seriously

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Peanut the squirrel was a sign… When a crypto pegged to a martyred rodent hits a billion dollars in market cap, you know it’s a sign that the froth is getting ridiculous. And that’s what happened. Boom. A broad, brutal selloff. The S&P 500 off 1.5%; NASDAQ’s been hit 2.6%. Volatility’s spiking. While these dips don’t seem statistically significant – and they might not be – they’re a harbinger of some big, big moves… Basically, traders out there are headed for the door. And that door is very small. Let’s talk about what that means for us and how we can take advantage…

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How the Trump Bump Could End In a Slump

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We saw the markets take off like a shot in the wake of Trump’s decisive election victory last week. You’d think this reflects widespread optimism about the prospects for the U.S. economy. And you’d be right, more or less. But there’s another side to this, and it’s not making so many headlines right now. Trump and his surrogates, like Elon Musk, for one, have vowed to slash government spending and bureaucracy. This sounds great on paper; a lot of people across the political spectrum list over-spending and red tape as big concerns. But in practice… a move like this could lead to a collapse in demand. Demand is the not-so-secret sauce, the ace in the hole, of the U.S. economy, a juggernaut driven by spending. Basic materials is one of my personal favorite yardsticks of demand, and that sector has

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What PNUT Tells Us About This Market

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] If you’ve never heard of Peanut the Squirrel… that’s okay. And if you’ve never heard of PNUT, the Peanut the Squirrel meme coin… well, lucky for you. Because it was all over the place today, hitting a $1 billion market cap after listing on Binance and getting the nod from Elon Musk. If Elon Musk knows you exist, you’re hot – that’s how this market’s rolling right now. It’s so perfectly indicative of the wild froth and bubble mentality out there. Despite being completely ridiculous – Peanut the Squirrel coin for cryin’ out loud – it has big implications for us, the adults, trying to surf the waves of the S&P 500. I’d even say this was a critical discussion for us – let’s go…

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