[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Bonds have been quietly (as usual) selling off as the S&P 500 tests new all-time highs. Of course, for folks like me who’re in the markets all day, “quiet” is anything but; rate-sensitive corners of the market may finally take notice after today’s sell-off. Now, I can hear you ask: “What does interest rate-sensitive mean, anyway?” Quite simply, it’s those segments of the market that have a correlation with the bond market. Utilities and real estate, for example, will benefit from lower borrowing costs and will pay a relatively higher dividend. Gold is another. The yellow metal historically has benefited from lower yields; the opportunity cost of holding gold increases alongside yields. Gold is currently outperforming most other sectors in the one-, three-, six-, and 12-week timeframes, but it’s also trading at all-time highs. Of course, something’s got to give.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The VIX, which had been mostly stuck above 20, is falling fast – 18 and heading south. Inflation looks like it might be ready for a comeback, but that seems like the furthest thing from traders’ minds. They’re fixated on the election in a little more than two weeks, and they see risk fading there. I’ll explain what that means in a second. You wouldn’t necessarily know it by the action today – volume was light despite $5 trillion in options expiring and despite the upside break on the S&P 500. But this week overall has been really interesting, and sets us up for some big moves in the not-too-distant future. We’ll talk about all that. Here we go…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Blake has something special cooked up for you. As we all know by now, today’s retail sales report was… inflationary… but it might not be a great thing for retail stocks. Blake’s also looking at the struggle-y, grind-y move higher in equities. He’ll clue you into the role inflation, gold, and the rising dollar are playing in all of this and how…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The tech sector… doesn’t quite know what to do with itself today. Nvidia rocked more than 3% to the upside after yesterday’s semiconductor slaughter. But Meta, which is about to find itself on the pointy end of a likely large lawsuit, was on track to close down nearly 2% to the day. And it’s like the rest of the market just stood by and watched. But I’ll show you in a second that, if you know where to look, you can find big, actionable strategic kinds of shifts underway – the kind that can make you money if you know what to do about it. Let’s get started…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The bullish action of the last few sessions came to a screeching halt today as stocks sold off. Tech was led lower by the semiconductor sector, which has otherwise enjoyed a nice run higher this year, with high-volume, bellwether chip ETFs like SMH and SOXX tacking on gains of around 25% in 2024. Now both of these are down more than 5% for the day. In a day, the sector has given back around 20% of its yearly gains on news the U.S. government is “considering” limiting sales of chips to other countries. The thing is, the market’s internals remain strong, and most of the ingredients are there for a potentially historic bullish run… but we need the NASDAQ to make a new all-time high to bring it all together. Now, bonds are coming up off of lows and credit

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] “What’s the pain trade, Brandon?” I can hear you ask. Well, it’s the trade that delivers the most amount of punishment to as many investors as possible. Get familiar with it. The market is grinding higher, satisfying pretty much nobody. The bulls are left wanting more, whereas the bears who were short the market (like many hedge funds) are forced to cover. Thus, the pain trade is “high” for folks all over the market. What we’ve seen in recent weeks is a lack of real direction or rotation. And just when you think you have it down, that you have it all figured out… the market moves the other way in a hurry. The energy sector, as tracked by XLE, comes to mind… The pain trade can last for a while, but there are indications of when the pain will

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] “Let’s make a move…” “OK, you go first…” “No, you go first!” “No, you!” No one wants to be first. If I didn’t know any better, I’d say no trader out there wants to be the first one to… do something. Anything. The players here are scared #%&less. The market has spent the better part of three weeks bouncing around in an incredibly tight range – we haven’t touched the expected move since September. All the while, it’s like someone broke the dial on the VIX. It’s practically stuck above 20. But like I’ve been saying, this can’t last forever. And it won’t. And I think “it” will happen sooner than anyone realizes. After all, earnings are going to start ramping up on us here. Let’s talk about what to do…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Today’s CPI report came in a little higher than expected, which was enough to spook the bulls – and remind everyone that inflation is still a force for traders to reckon with. We’ll be reckoning with it again tomorrow morning when PPI is released ahead of the cash open. So long as inflation is running hot or, in this case, warm, the basic materials sector (as tracked by the XLB ETF, for instance) are a smart move, like a hedge and profit play rolled into one. The reason is dead simple economics: Companies that deal in materials can up their prices (and their bottom lines) without dinging demand. Tonight we’re going to look at classic materials stocks – miners like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Newmont (NEM), and several more. We’re also going to look at a stock that’s not in the

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The market’s been sticking traders with a weird, and, sure, let’s call it frustrating, conundrum for the better part of three weeks now. It goes something like this… Stocks are bouncing around in a tight 100-point(ish) range… but volatility has been really high, with the VIX pegged above 20 most of the time. It’s like someone broke the needles off the S&P and the VIX. Throw in some fairly light volume most days, and you get the impression no one wants to stick their neck out in front of any potential catalyst. There are reasons for this, which we’ll talk about in a second. And of course despite the range there have been big winners and losers, which we’ll also get to. But there’s a very high-risk situation waiting to unfold, and the next session or two of trading is

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Investors seem to be in the grips of fear, uncertainty, and doubt right now, and we’d be foolish to ignore the very real concerning events around the world. And yet… When I look “inside” the market, at its internals, just about everything points to a continuation of the bull trend. There are opportunities in tech, semiconductors, cryptocurrency, and even nuclear energy right now – despite the low in bonds and the big hit energy has taken. I’m looking for the former to complete a temporary low, in fact. Let’s look closer at these setups and see if the latest correlation with the dollar will hold up…