[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Historically, December is a very bullish time for the markets – even more so in election years. This usually comes down to the big players chasing performance, and jockeying for tax advantages in the year ahead. So from that perspective, a bet on an “up” December makes at least some sense. But – and this is a big “but” – the question is: Are you willing to bet most or all of your 2024 gains on that? In other words, bet the farm on a big December… or does it make more sense to mitigate risk, pull the ripcord and take some profit off the table? Because there are volatility-based indicators flashing at the moment. These indicators show risk levels rising, and taking some profits right now might be a smart move. Here’s why…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The last TheoNight update before December trading kicks off. Here’s Don…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Maybe they thought we wouldn’t notice, what with it being the day before Thanksgiving and all, but we got more than 15 major and minor economic data reports today – everything from GDP to jobs to crude oil stocks inventories and just about everything in between. Not everything in the reports was big news, and any traders that were on the ball today largely shrugged them off, anyway. But anyone who wasn’t paying attention will end up wishing they were. What I saw in the inflation data, income and spending-related reports points to a couple of big moves we need to start making now. I think we need to look again and the classic defensive sectors, like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples. I’m seeing the potential for 10% moves in certain stocks before next month, and the year, are through.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] This trading pattern isn’t uncommon at this time of year as volume slackens a bit. Stocks are consolidating near their highs, while more tech stocks begin to behave bullishly. Disinflation is the name of the game, and that’s usually a good environment for stocks, especially Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN). The big exception here is the semiconductor sector – chips. Stocks there are having a hard time maintaining the bid. Frankly, I’m a little concerned about this one and I’d like to see new all-time highs here to feel better about it. Bonds are starting a comeback… just in time for the collapse in oil prices I’ve been predicting. We’re seeing a move lower in crypto, too, but, as I’ll show you in a second, this is a true dip-buying opportunity. Here’s what you need to know…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Bonds and gold historically have a positive correlation; they tend to move together. But that’s been breaking up as of late, and that’s what happened today. Whether they’re breaking up for good is a different story. Treasuries saw their biggest rally since August, but gold had its biggest drop since the beginning of the month. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) had its worst day since early November, too. But I’m looking around the corner, at pre-move pulses that signal the next big move… Right now, it looks like that move will be coming out of China. (Interestingly, I’m not alone in thinking this; Don Kaufman sent an alert out for a long option trade on EEM last week, and Chinese stocks account for 25% of that fund’s weight. A rally in EEM typically occurs as the greenback weakens.) So, a

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] This week, the S&P 500 has been hugging the upper edge of its expected move with precision, and next week’s $72 expected move in 3.5 trading days is aggressive for a holiday week. Meanwhile, tech is lagging—Microsoft is flat, and Apple, Amazon, and Google aren’t driving the market. Instead, financials and energy are stealing the spotlight, with strong moves I’m positioned to capture. Even more concerning, there’s been odd action in S&P 500 futures that I suspect is tied to bond market pressure, while a rallying dollar and Bitcoin excess weigh on emerging markets. Complacency is creeping in as the Santa Claus rally approaches. Don’t get caught off guard. Watch my latest video for the full breakdown and my top trades.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] After spending decades dismantling and exporting American industries, the folks in D.C. are suddenly all about bringing them back. And they’re having some success, to be sure. From where I’m standing, the market agrees. In fact, it looks like this trend is only going to accelerate. Industrial stocks, as tracked by the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI), are surging, and XLI itself looks like a great long-term trade. The sector is bucking the overall slowdown in equities right now. And when you get down into the nitty-gritty, it looks even more promising. Tonight, we’re going to look at electrical equipment stocks like Eaton (ETN), some aerospace and defense giants like Raytheon (RTN), Lockheed Martin (LMY, and others, and we’re going to see where the action is in machinery stocks like John Deere (DE) and Caterpillar (CAT). Let’s get into

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I’m writing this in the weird netherworld between the cash close and Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings announcement… Surprisingly, equities finished higher today, despite some serious volatility. We’re getting consistent VIX readings above 17 and there were times during today’s session when it was knocking on the door of 19. Yikes. That gave us selling on rockin’ volume and then the bulls came back in swinging. Nvidia itself found a bid only in the last two hours of the trading session. I’ve got a bullish butterfly on in NVDA right now, so I’ll walk you through that was we await those earnings…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The markets were jolted this morning by the beat of war drums – an “update” to Russian nuclear doctrine said to be in response to Ukraine’s use of American missiles. This is only the latest setback for folks that have blindly chased the post-election rally. They’ve been feeling the pinch over the past week. But we’re following the strongest stocks – in the strongest sectors, to boot, and we’ve been sailing through the selloff with minimal problems. Crypto, Bitcoin in particular, continues to see vigorous buying. The nuclear energy sector looks good now, too. Elsewhere, interest rates seem to have found a temporary top, which could signal a breakdown in crude oil prices is around the corner. But through it all, I’m beginning to see improvement in the market’s internals and, with Nvidia’s highly anticipated third-quarter earnings set to hit

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] My approach to the market is to identify activity, or “pulses,” beneath the surface of the market that point to potential movement. These “pre-move pulses” are a strong indication of the potential success of a trade. Early last week, Tuesday, in fact, my gold charts began to show exactly this kind of activity. They’re still showing tempting signals. See, one of the “pulses” I monitor is option activity – it’s rarely steered us wrong. Let’s take a closer look at the opportunity in gold for a rebound off of its low in the coming weeks…