[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] It’s been a long week since we last spoke here; the market’s covered a lot of miles in that time. Stocks and Bitcoin have both exploded to new all-time highs being the big headline. The election and the Fed rate cut are in the rearview mirror, so the market has a greater sense of clarity going into what’s historically been the most bullish time of the year. Tesla (TSLA) continues to deliver for us, as do our crypto mining stocks. It seems like the world is fighting tooth and nail for access to the U.S. economy and that’s reflected in the relentless bid unfolding in the dollar trade. On the other hand, yields are surging but crude oil still looks for all the world like it’s about to fall off a cliff. That could save us from further bond market

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The “Bitcoin Industrial Complex” ecosystem of crypto and crypto stocks and ETFs saw a record $38 billion in trading volume today. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) alone saw $4.5 billion in inflows – not a bad start to the week. Of course, this comes at an interesting time – the wake of last week’s election. We’ve seen some interesting moves in crypto and gold. Bitcoin is the 800-lb gorilla here, having rocketed 30%, from $67,405 to $88,040 since last Monday. On the other hand, gold is down more than 4% over the past week. I find this a curious result seeing as how these are competing forms of money and the dollar has been strengthening in real and relative terms. Let’s dive into Bitcoin and its ecosystem to see what might be on the table for those who might

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player]   It’s clear the markets are absolutely euphoric that the election is over. Volatility has thrown in the towel; it’s been crushed. If that weren’t enough, stocks got another dose of the good stuff from a rate cut on Thursday. (They’re cutting rates, but the economy is “solid.” Riiiiiiiiight.) Nvidia’s on the Dow… Tesla’s on the way to Mars… Euphoria. Know who’s not euphoric, though? The bond vigilantes! They’re not happy. That crew has been selling like it’s going out of style, jacking up yields. That’s slacked off a little; there’s a bid out there right now, but rates are still sketchy. Let’s talk about what that means and how we can cash in…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We got another cut today, and parsing out its statement is unusually easy… because they’re some of the shortest-ever remarks ever released around a rate cut, at least in recent memory. “Recent indicators suggest economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace… labor market conditions have eased… unemployment has moved up but remains low… inflation has made progress.” Pretty simple, right? That’s an excerpt from the very first paragraph and it’s jam-packed with problematic statements – we’ll get into the actual truth of what’s going on here. The biggest, most obvious problem: If we’re growing at a “solid pace,” why are they cutting rates? The answer leads to opportunity, and that’s what we’ll look at today, along with stocks like TJX, ROST, KR, and more. Let’s get into it…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] If you’ve been watching the markets for a while, you’ll know they’ve been anticipating the outcome of the election for a few weeks now. Price action “knew” how it was going to play out. Not that we didn’t get some volatility – we did, it just played out overnight and resolved quickly. And when that dust settled, equities blasted off to all-time highs while bond vigilantes nuked that particular market. For all that, for all the talking heads going on about how “this is an unprecedented move,” we’re really talking about less than 3% here. If you look at the expected move (and believe me, we will look at the expected move) today gets put in perspective. Again, the markets knew this was going to happen. That said, there are some actual unprecedented, even shocking moves going on. That’s what

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] If you were on my stream yesterday afternoon, you heard me talk about the improving condition of the market’s internals. This improvement has continued today; we’re seeing the right things (i.e., leadership) from the right sectors. Biotech is looking increasingly strong and so are the crypto markets. Bonds are trying to find a floor and crude oil looks vulnerable, despite a selloff in dollars over the past couple of days. This is what you need to know to make it through the next few sessions…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The U.S. presidential election ends tomorrow; we’ll see results filter in throughout Tuesday’s trading session. Algorithms will be making judgements as to which markets and stocks will benefit from a Trump or Harris victory. For us mere humans, the outlook as to who will take the reins from President Biden is cloudy, but we need to keep tabs on the outlook for volatility. I think the best, most helpful way to look at these expectations is to view the situation like one big earnings statement. One of the most predictable elements of a post-earnings move is what volatility will do. Short-term volatility is initially high and back-month volatility is relatively low. After the event, short-term volatility gets crushed and we start to see a normal structure, with volatility rising over time. So let’s take a look at the volatility picture

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] We’ve come to the end of a long, wild week in the markets… …and we’re heading into what promises to be an even wilder week. The election is just part of it. This is what you need to know before Monday…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] For economists, especially those who’ve studied or even lived through the Seventies, there’s no scarier word than… stagflation. The mere mention of it fills market-watchers with dread. The word, and the concept, are a British import from the Sixties – probably better it was just the Beatles – during a prolonged stretch of low-to-no economic growth, spiraling prices, and elevated unemployment over there. We went through it in the Seventies, starting with the Nixon Shock and subsequent ‘73 oil crisis and didn’t come out of it until around 1982. So, for tonight’s trick, we’ll look at all the signs I’m seeing that point to a return of the old market bogeyman. There are plenty out there if you know where to look. And the treat? There are plenty of opportunities to prepare for and even profit from it. Turn out

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Earnings… employment… inflation… election. These are the risks looming out there – any of them, or all of them could upend the up-trend and ruin your day if you’re not prepared. But it’s not where the ball is, it’s where it’s going that’s going to matter here. The S&P 500 is down a little for the day as I write this, about 30 minutes before the close, but Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) earnings are less than an hour away, and those could spark significant moves. Those are just the first two hurdles we’ll have to clear. Let’s take a look…