[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 is like a plane in a holding pattern, trading mildly higher. Nothing to write home about… nothing to get excited about… right? Well, traders are digesting the 50-basis-point rate cut we got last week – and weighing the 50/50 proposition that the Fed may cut another 50 basis points at their November meeting. That’s a lot of cutting, front-loading policy to prevent a recession. According to Fed President Austan Goolsbee, there are “a lot of cuts to come” over the next year. So, a lot for traders to think about, and that shows in the tape. A smattering of S&P 500 are trading higher, led by 4% session gainer Tesla. Consumer staples, energy, and utilities are moving higher. Then again, plenty of other stocks have gapped lower. It’s as though the market is confused as to what

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Triple-witching – the September event is coming hot on the heels of our 50bp rate cut. Trillions in notional value in derivatives expired today. If you were expecting fireworks… sorry, you didn’t really get them. Normally a triple-witching afternoon sees a massive jolt of volatility, but we didn’t see that today even around an hour out from the close. But that doesn’t make this a boring market, not by a long shot. Today’s triple-witching actually matters way more than you know – certainly way more than this tame afternoon would let on. Rate cuts and bullish mojo are in play right now, and that adds up to opportunity. I’ll explain…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] “Buy on the canons…” Pop-history tells us Baron Rothschild said that during the Napoleonic Wars… but there’s a good chance he didn’t. Whoever really said it wasn’t exactly wrong. Times of conflict, like we’re seeing in the Middle East and in Ukraine and Russia, put upward pressure on defense contractors and oil companies. And, as these conflicts seem to be kicking into higher gear, we’d be foolish to ignore the potential there. And while I don’t think we’re in “bullish breakthrough” territory yet, I like the setup for the next bullish moves in stocks like General Electric, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and a few more. I’ll tell you all about it right now…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The Fed slashed interest rates by 50 basis points today… while saying they intended to run a “rather restrictive policy.” The reaction was fairly muted – a lot of this has been baked in. I think a cut like this is going to keep the market on edge for the foreseeable future. That’s because, in the back of my mind – and probably yours and everyone else’s, is this question: “What’s going wrong in the economy that the Fed feels like a cut like this is the answer?” We’ll look at the answer because it points to big-time profit potential…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The Dow finally has company – the much broader S&P 500 has joined it at the all-time high party. If you sense something missing from this picture, you’re not wrong… I’m concerned that the NASDAQ hasn’t notched highs this month. Of course, that’s the home of tech in the market, and tech stocks typically react well to rate cuts. We’ll get a cut tomorrow, though whether it’s 25 or 50 basis points will be a surprise until the end. Gold and silver continue to look strong and there’s a bid under crypto, too. Crude oil may be having a “moment,” as well, as it tries to complete a bottom. I’ll walk you through what you need to know right now…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The markets are pricing in the first rate cut in more than four years. As of this writing, it looks like we can expect a 50-basis-point cut on Wednesday, with a 50% probability of a 1.25% cut by December. That’s fast… but what’s the hurry? Is the Fed that desperate to accommodate the mountain of T-bill debt the Treasury will roll over in the coming year? Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen made a big bet that the Fed would cut this year when she directed the Treasury to issue T-bills over bonds and notes. The Fed has a “mountain” of its own to contend with – unrealized losses they’re holding onto. We need to ask ourselves two questions (at least!): Are they sprucing up the balance sheets’ appearance by cutting rates? Or are we peeking over the edge of an economic

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The markets are all over the place, and with the Fed decision looming, things are heating up. 🔥 Sectors are driving the action, but what happens if we get a 25 bps rate cut? It’s not just the cut that matters — the Fed’s guidance will be crucial for the next move. We’ve got volatility checks, risk/reward insights (still looking skewed, btw), and a dive into the SPX expected moves: last week’s 128.87 vs. next week’s tighter 100.75. Is this just a quiet moment before the real storm? Stay tuned!

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] PPI data came in above expectations today, but still, in the grand scheme of things, below levels that would give the Fed heartburn – if they even get heartburn. Today we’re going to look at how crude oil, Texas tea, impacts that same inflation data. What’s more, we’ll look at my charts and see what we might expect if oil prices bounce from today’s levels and return to previous resistance. Why the emphasis on oil? Well, I think we may have an opportunity to get into some long positions on energy stocks like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and a few others I’ll name. We’re also going to check out a topping pattern in the US Global Jet ETF (JETS), which is always sensitive to moves in crude – we could be looking at a bearish move there. There’s a

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] confirmation that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points. So of course, stocks took off like a shot – just kidding. They didn’t. They tanked steadily until just before lunchtime… then they took off in a 2% reversal rally. That sounds great, but there’s more going on here than meets the eye. I’ll walk you through – what you can expect and how to get in position right now. Come on in…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks are giving in the ol’ college try for a bounce here, but I continue to see warning signs internally. For one thing, the Japanese yen is rising – as are bonds, which tells me capital is still seeking refuge in safer areas of the market. So, there’s room for improvement. That’s not to say we’re short of opportunities. Setups continue to develop, but they’re not in what you’d call the most bullish sectors. Here’s what I mean…