[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] A category 4-equivalent typhoon is barreling toward some of Taiwan’s most important semiconductor factories… Ground war is spreading in the Middle East… Some of the biggest, busiest ports in the United States are frozen by strikes… The cherry on top: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell sounded ever-so-slightly hawkish when he said the Fed was in no rush to raise rates. So it’s no understatement to call these tense, uncertain times, and that was reflected in equities’ performance today. Even so, I think the NASDAQ has an opportunity to reassert its dominance in the coming weeks as the global market rediscovers its appetite for dollars. We’ll look at how we’re positioned there tonight. We’ll also keep the focus on China, where we’re opting for quality over quantity there. Let’s take a look…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Anyone hoping to see a little more volatility finally got it today… but not necessarily in the shiny bearish package they were counting on. Indeed, the S&P 500 finished the day – and the third quarter – with an all-time high close. This comes barely two months after the market made its early August correction. It seems like the hope of Fed rate cuts propelled the market higher amid economic uncertainty… but I’m not so sure. Because, if we look at the market through an inflation-adjusted lens, we see through the bullish mirage, the veneer of strength. Ultimately, it’s been a weak dollar that’s lent the appearance of bullishness. Factor out the dollar… and you’re nowhere near highs. That being said, Powell’s statements today helped lift the dollar and the markets rallied off lows. He moderated the dovish tone a

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] I hope everyone had fun snoozing through this week’s slop-tastic sessions. Hope everyone got their beauty sleep… …because it’s about to get wild in this market. If you know where to look (and I’ll show you) you can see the signs of imminent volatility. On Wednesday, I showed you how sector rotation and an increase in defensive posturing out there pointed to chop ahead. You don’t fill sandbags unless you’re expecting a flood, and that’s exactly what traders are doing with these positions. I’m going to show you even more signs of a wild ride coming up, and show you just what to do about it…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player]   “Inflation’s under control, it’s normal. Not a problem.” The Fed told us this through most of 2021 when inflation was in fact ballooning… but this time they really mean it.  And to put a point on it, they slashed interest rates by 50 basis points.  And yet… nearly all assets other than crude oil are showing higher prices at faster rates. You know, inflating. The rise in commodities and basic materials seems to be putting wind in the sails of China and emerging markets – they’re moving in tandem.  Right now, I’m looking at basic materials, as tracked by the Materials Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLB). The sector is rising and breaking through key resistance levels.  That’s what we’re going to look at right now…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] If you didn’t know any better, looking at the market this afternoon, you’d think “Hm. Quiet. No volume.” And you’d be right… but this market is going to wake up. How do I know? You can tell a lot by following the flow of cash out of one sector and into another. Go figure. Right now I’m seeing a lot of defensive posturing going on – filling sandbags. Traders are dumping financials, scooping up utilities left and right, and getting back into the sector that was dead three or four weeks ago: tech. And when you look at the calendar, you can see the end of the quarter coming this week. Add it all up and you’ve got a hell of a volatile market on your hands. That could happen as soon as tomorrow or Friday, so listen to what

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Stocks enjoyed a decent day as tech and semiconductors led the crowd to the upside. Gold hit new all-time highs and silver surged, which is just more confirmation that we’re on the right track to be bullish here. Interestingly, crypto benefited from a strong bid, too. Both metal and crypto miners continue to offer us compelling ways to capitalize on this emerging strength. Bonds seem set for higher prices, too, but this week’s PCE report looms large. That’ll help confirm whether the bullish trend in fixed income is the real thing or a flash in the pan. There’s much more to talk about tonight…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 is like a plane in a holding pattern, trading mildly higher. Nothing to write home about… nothing to get excited about… right? Well, traders are digesting the 50-basis-point rate cut we got last week – and weighing the 50/50 proposition that the Fed may cut another 50 basis points at their November meeting. That’s a lot of cutting, front-loading policy to prevent a recession. According to Fed President Austan Goolsbee, there are “a lot of cuts to come” over the next year. So, a lot for traders to think about, and that shows in the tape. A smattering of S&P 500 are trading higher, led by 4% session gainer Tesla. Consumer staples, energy, and utilities are moving higher. Then again, plenty of other stocks have gapped lower. It’s as though the market is confused as to what

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Triple-witching – the September event is coming hot on the heels of our 50bp rate cut. Trillions in notional value in derivatives expired today. If you were expecting fireworks… sorry, you didn’t really get them. Normally a triple-witching afternoon sees a massive jolt of volatility, but we didn’t see that today even around an hour out from the close. But that doesn’t make this a boring market, not by a long shot. Today’s triple-witching actually matters way more than you know – certainly way more than this tame afternoon would let on. Rate cuts and bullish mojo are in play right now, and that adds up to opportunity. I’ll explain…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] “Buy on the canons…” Pop-history tells us Baron Rothschild said that during the Napoleonic Wars… but there’s a good chance he didn’t. Whoever really said it wasn’t exactly wrong. Times of conflict, like we’re seeing in the Middle East and in Ukraine and Russia, put upward pressure on defense contractors and oil companies. And, as these conflicts seem to be kicking into higher gear, we’d be foolish to ignore the potential there. And while I don’t think we’re in “bullish breakthrough” territory yet, I like the setup for the next bullish moves in stocks like General Electric, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and a few more. I’ll tell you all about it right now…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The Fed slashed interest rates by 50 basis points today… while saying they intended to run a “rather restrictive policy.” The reaction was fairly muted – a lot of this has been baked in. I think a cut like this is going to keep the market on edge for the foreseeable future. That’s because, in the back of my mind – and probably yours and everyone else’s, is this question: “What’s going wrong in the economy that the Fed feels like a cut like this is the answer?” We’ll look at the answer because it points to big-time profit potential…