[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The market has been a rollercoaster lately, with the resilience of defensive sectors and the modest bounce in the technology sector painting an intriguing picture. This movement hints at a temporary adjustment rather than a full-blown recovery. The VIX, still holding strong above 22, reinforces this idea and suggests we might be on the verge of another significant move upward. Amidst this market dance, key economic indicators like weekly unemployment claims and bond auctions are flashing warning signs, pointing to underlying weaknesses in the economy. Stocks haven’t quite made up their five-day losses yet, but Friday will tell the tale. At the moment, it looks like a rally could be in the making – maybe, maybe not But here’s where I think smart traders should be looking…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Sure, the VIX is down from the other day’s damn near historic high above 65. But it’s still more than double what it was just a month ago. Then again, there’s more than one way to measure volatility. And it’s not like volatility is a bad thing, at least if you’re ready for it – it helped bag my subscribers a 30% one-day gain in META. Stocks have to move to make money, right? They’re certainly moving today. As I write this, about 30 minutes ahead of today’s close, I’m sure there are folks out there who can’t wait for the closing bell to ring. I’m looking at a monster reversal in the S&P 500 – a more than 100-point reversal on the day. The NASDAQ is seeing 500- and 600-point reversals. Absolutely this is causing anxiety, maybe even panic,

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Well, it’s finally happened. I’ve been warning for months – since it was cooler outside – that the carry trade in increasingly expensive Japanese yen was likely to blow the markets apart. And wouldn’t you know it… the mad traders’ rush to unwind their suddenly-expensive yen carry trades has at last blown the markets apart. Of course, it feels much better being right and protected, and if you’ve been following along with me, I’m sure it’s the same for you. I came into this week heavily in cash. In fact, the big cash position even gave me the peace of mind to make some strategic buys amid the frantic selling yesterday. That said, it’s likely this rout has a few more innings left to run; I don’t think the bottom is in, regardless of today’s bounce. But our healthy cash

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Sunday night’s headlines were unsettling as an onlooker – you could watch the carnage erupt in big Asian markets like Korea and especially Japan, where the Nikkei just had its roughest session ever. So I knew even then it would only be a matter of hours before the carnage jumped back over the International Date Line and spread to U.S. and global markets. The VIX blew out to 65 pre-market and it initially looked as though we’d go “limit down” in Russell 2000 (RTY) and NASDAQ (NQ) futures. But, the selling abated and, wouldn’t you know it, the intra-day rally was on! You have to question the longevity of such moves, especially against the backdrop of the huge Treasury rally last week and the strengthening yen – that’s what’s signaling the unwind of the carry trade. Yes, today was a

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] It looks like, after a long, long run of being upside-down, bad news is bad news again… Not-great jobs numbers are pointing to an economic slowdown; crude oil prices are actually pricing one in. Bond prices are in full-on “duck-and-cover” mode.” Second-quarter earnings have been kryptonite for tech stocks. Investors are getting a rude awakening – maybe AI isn’t all it’s cracked up to be yet. The volatility beast is running wild over the unprepared. We’re going to take a look at VIX, VVIX, and the volatility futures and I’ll show you what to look for. By mid-morning, the VIX (which started the week just above 16) had almost hit 30 while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were both down more than 2% after 3:00 PM. In other words, this was a really rough day, and today we’re going to

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The “feel” of the market is strange right now. It feels like someone saw a fire and pulled the alarm… but investors are essentially treating it like a fire drill. We’re not seeing panic, chaos, mass capital destruction – just a big selloff of the marquee names like Nvidia on the NASDAQ. Stocks like NVDA, AVGO, and AMD were sold off anywhere from 6% to 8.5%. In a market like this, safety is possible. In fact, it’s downright lucrative. Classic defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples are packed with opportunities. No need to panic – Dominion Energy, Abbott Labs, Procter & Gamble, Colgate-Palmolive, and plenty of others, are looking great right now, proving that there’s still plenty of action on the long side. We’re going to look at those names and a lot more in tonight’s video…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Fed Day played out about how we expected – a massive buying bender before the FOMC announcement and JPo press conference… and some selling afterward. (And by “some,” I mean we’re off 40 handles since Powell spoke.) But the price action I’m looking at right now, and which you’ll be seeing in just a second, is a quintessential rippin’ rally. And that means volatility is coming. I’ve been pounding the table on this for a few sessions now, and I’m seeing nothing that would make me want to change my tune. Buckle up, helmets on. But if you’re not a believer yet, we’re going to look at volatility futures here and you will see – with your own eyeballs – that we haven’t seen the crush yet. It’s coming. Here’s what to do…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] It’s tough to call them the Magnificent Seven anymore, at least with a straight face, but these stocks – once the leaders among leaders – are all down today. It’s one of the starkest reminders yet that tech is becoming a hurdle for the indexes to clear, rather than a springboard for launch. The selloff is beginning to attract the attention of the crowd, the late money. So I’m not exactly optimistic about the prospects for new highs on the NASDAQ, but I do think we could see a new all-time high in the Dow Industrials, an index a lot of pro traders overlook. Obviously, a run to new highs there depends a lot on what the Fed says and does tomorrow. The odds of a September rate cut, at least according to the CME Group data, are now at

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] It’s really tough to overstate how important the next four sessions are going to be. The Fed will begin to lay out its plan for rate cuts. Some of the biggest companies on the planet are announcing earnings. And there’s a little employment announcement coming Friday. So, saying there’s “significant” potential for volatility is putting it mildly. Last week’s bout of chop was sparked by negative reactions to Google and Tesla earnings. Now we’re staring down the barrel of Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Amazon. So the stakes are even higher. Not fazed by the prospect of four of the Magnificent Seven reporting? Well, how about those rate cuts? There’s a lot of hay made these days about a September cut… but the market is pricing in three cuts by the end of the year. That’s astonishing given the inflation still