[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 is hitting all-time highs on a regular, almost serial basis these days. When the market lets the good times roll, they roll indeed. It seems as though session after session is going swimmingly for equities. But for all swimmers, it’s what lies beneath they should worry about… In this case, it’s whales. Today saw a huge upside call spread on the VIX “fear index.” This spread maxes out if the VIX reaches 45 or higher. In plain English, that means the VIX needs to attain its highest level since early 2023 if this trade has any hope of paying off by expiration. This trade is more than likely a hedge, but its profound bearishness at a time when stocks are topping highs is compelling. It’s the timing of the trade that makes this very interesting. Here’s what

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Holiday markets are usually very sleepy; low volumes and tame price action. Not this one. The holiday trade hanging over from yesterday’s break is packing quite a punch. After an extremely sleepy start this morning, the S&P 500 ended the day red-hot, up 0.54% – I’ll show you what that really looks like in a second. But, as happens a lot lately, that heat is courtesy of… one stock. Not that most tech stocks didn’t have a great day, but META – that’s Facebook to those of us older than 3 – tore it up this session, better than 5%. The market for META options was looking for a $10 move this week… and it got double that. That’s got some heavy implications, as we’ll see. We’ve got to talk about Bitcoin, too. It’s tanking. One Bitcoin would’ve bought you

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 and NASDAQ both hit record highs today – in a shortened, not-very-exciting trading session. But we’re also seeing numerous signs that the U.S. economy is starting to slow down. I think, if you look in the right places, we’re seeing really ominous signs of that dreaded beast, stagflation. And this is all before nonfarm payroll data hits on Friday. That’s why it’s important we act right now, while all this is happening. Because you don’t want to be the trader this stuff happens to. We want to be proactive. That’s the name of the game right now. So we’re going to look at the kinds of stocks and assets that are great for times like these – a substitute for gold, two retailers – one that does consistent business, the other a major discounter. And we’ll look

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The tech sector, as tracked by the XLK ETF, is up close to 22% over the past six months, beating, by a mile, the 16% gains seen in the S&P 500. While we’ve seen some compelling signs that the market is ready for new leadership, tech is still presenting problems for the bears. That said, I think we’re in the sucker phase of the current rally; bandwagoning, not fundamentals, are powering this thing higher. I need to see participation broaden significantly if I’m to be convinced this is sustainable. But, for all of that, I’m not ready to switch up to bearish trading strategies yet. There are still breakout setups unfolding, served up on a silver platter. Let me show you what I mean…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Bonds were battered today as economic data, SCOTUS, and other news pushed prices lower and yields higher. While the bond market was anything but quiet, the reaction from interest rate-sensitive securities like REITs and financial and utility stocks was fairly muted. Sounds strange to say it, but I just did… If this all sounds like something is breaking, you might well be right, but don’t tell that to Tesla investors – they drove the stock more than 6% higher for the session, a huge move for a $657 billion stock. The bulls’ fingerprints were everywhere in the options market, too – TSLA, ROKU, and ARKK saw strong unusual option activity. There is some risk-taking out there and this makes a potential setup for a spread trade. The uncertainty peppering news feeds seemed to help gold – a little. The yellow

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Well, Q2/2024 ended with a whimper of sorts, drifting down 0.26% in late trading. But don’t let that fool you; the S&P 500 will actually close up a healthy 5.1% for the quarter. So don’t be distracted by the selling today – much of that is being driven by institutions engaged in quarterly rebalancing. But, for a strong third quarter, we need to see new leadership emerge; the market cannot keep living according to the will of the tech sector alone. As I’ve been saying, I think healthcare and biotech are more than capable of stepping up to the plate, and we’re looking for those early opportunities accordingly. While I’m at it, I wouldn’t be surprised if the ongoing bifurcation in retail continued, as well. Let me show you what I mean – and what I’m looking for out there…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Technology, healthcare, financials, energy – ask any average Joe or Jane on the street to name a sector of the stock market and you’ll probably hear one of these thrown back at you. They get headlines and headspace, plenty of capital, and, yes, they occasionally lead the market – particularly tech and energy – but there’s a whole lot more going right now elsewhere in 11 vast sectors of the S&P 500. Over the last five sessions, which have seen the S&P 500 climb just 0.30%, the most sluggish performers are basic materials and industrials. If we track those with their SPDR ETFs, XLB and XLI, the two are down 1.35% and 1.04%, respectively. But, in the chart I’m about to show you, you’ll see some interesting price action on the ETFs and several popular stocks in this sector. I

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Tech stocks (especially a certain $3.1 trillion chip company) have been leading the market to all-time high after all-time high for weeks now. But, as I sit here at the cash close today, I’m watching S&P 500 futures get absolutely rocked with volatility… and <boom> all the action stops and the S&P 500 is massively unchanged. So I’ve got to say tech is probably played out right now. That volatility I was watching a minute ago was NVDA. But the bid under it just isn’t enough to move the markets like it did just a few weeks ago. I’ve got a chart that shows perfectly what’s going on and what the next move is…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The tape tells the tale, just like it always does: The tech sector is clearly in consolidation mode right now. Don’t get me wrong – I still like the price action I’m seeing there in the sector as tracked by, for instance, XLK, the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. But this means the market is now (or shortly will be) looking for a new leader. My research has isolated a really promising candidate for that new leadership role: biotech. There’s no shortage of fantastic setups in this sector, and I’ve already starting picking a few standouts. Let’s take a look…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P 500 had trouble lifting off today, courtesy of a thousand-pound weight: NVDA. Today’s price action shows once again that this is the stock. Nine other sectors actually finished higher for the session. The rally that counts today is the energy sector – largely the result of the fundamentals of oil and even energy. The oil futures market is in backwardation right now, which is to say futures are trading at a discount to the spot price. This tells us, not in so many words, that the risk of an oil shortage – not unheard of in summer – is still being priced in. Utilities, financials, and consumer staples are positive for the day, too, though hard to grab onto.Treasury yields are consolidating and PCE inflation data hits on Friday. Any bullish perch is rather precarious right now. Now