[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Virtually all week, we saw a surge in bonds – the classic signal of a “flight to safety” and a warning that all hell’s about to break loose in stocks. We saw the entire market fixate on tech and its stellar earnings – tech is the market right now. Jobs numbers sparked an explosion in the dollar. If that all sounds chaotic… well… it is. It’s completely manic. But there’s no need to worry, we’ve got the charts and the chops to get through it. Our predicted expected move in the S&P 500 came in right on the money last week, so we can be confident we’re positioned correctly for the “yikes” moment that seems to be coming. Let’s dive in…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There have been a huge number of layoffs issued recently – 61,000 notices impacting nearly 7 million workers. That’s not something the economy can just shrug off – and the markets are going to have a hard time grappling with it, too. Here’s why…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] There are some immense bond trades underway right now. That’s because the smart money is bailing out of the S&P 500 and fleeing tech. These moves scream “defense!” and we’d be wise to pay close attention. Duck and cover – money is running scared…

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The intermarket deterioration pointed out last week has worsened, and now at a sector level, semiconductors and tech are starting to display weakness as well. Energy has popped up nicely going into the FOMC rate decision, which could be another warning sign for equities over the next couple weeks.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] The S&P was unrelenting as it closed near the high of the day. While today was quietly rising, the coming days may prove to be perilous. With mega cap earnings reports from $MSFT, $AAPL, $AMZN, $GOOG, $META and others, the FOMC policy statement and jobs appear to be small potatoes. This will be a pivotal week for the market whether an actual pivot in trend happens or not. ($NCLH, $LCID, $PLUG, $QS, $NLY)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] —Options driving manic intraday movement —head in the game; moves are fast and unrelenting —dollar strength and foreign bond demand —Tesla not so magnificent after all —Tech is vulnerable… and there were 6 —Enter the Fed SPX Expected Move – -last week – 58.27 (5-day expected move) -next week – 70.87 (5-day expected move)

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] In today’s video we look forward to Friday’s Personal Consumption and Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. We discuss the expectation of inflation remaining relatively high and the impact on consumer spending. We look at oil prices as a predictive indication of inflation and earnings as a reactive indicator of inflation.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Various intermarket conditions point to an increased potential for turbulence in equities in the coming days and weeks. Save for semiconductors and the monsters of tech, which continue to act well, a sustained rebound in the Dollar and uptick in long-term interest rates suggest that risk conditions are elevated near-term.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] This week we get to play some earnings trades as earnings season begins for 2024. We’re seeing Netflix (NFLX) rally immediately after hours on its earnings as we plot its expected move for tomorrow and beyond. Also, we update you on earnings earlier in the day and those planned for the next few days for traders.

[video_player type=”embed” style=”1″ dimensions=”640×360″ width=”640″ height=”360″ align=”center” margin_top=”0″ margin_bottom=”20″ ipad_color=”black”][/video_player] Is this the resurgence of a bull market or are investors walking into the bear trap? Let’s look at how to identify a bull or bear market. ($PYPL, $SMCI, $KWEB, $KEY, $GEO, $PPC, $MU, $WDC).