https://youtu.be/GFtlVcRoFcU Two central banks are selling US Treasuries at the same time. Blake Young recorded this afternoon’s video on how to tell which one is doing it on any given day, and it takes two charts. Put bond prices next to the yen. Falling bonds alongside a strengthening yen means the Bank of Japan is selling Treasuries to raise dollars and defend its currency. When bonds fall while the dollar strengthens instead, the selling is coming from inside the US. Heavy volume on top of that points at the Federal Reserve. He walked back through the last two weeks and showed both patterns. A two-day spike in the yen against falling bonds was Japan. Four days of heavy volume with a strengthening dollar was something else entirely. Today it was the second one. None of that stays in the bond market. More selling pushes prices down, which pushes borrowing costs

https://youtu.be/fWQj8Jwohmk Nobody cared about AMD earnings. Nobody cared about SpaceX either. Both were non-events. The only thing that moved this market was the S&P crossing 7,700, and I want to explain why that single level mattered more than every headline this week combined. We had been trading inside a very finite range with 7511 sitting at the center of it. When price stays in one neighborhood that long, an enormous ball of risk builds up in the options, rolled forward day after day, and a lot of it in zero DTE contracts. The second we crossed out of that range into uncharted turf, the entire professional world had to buy S&P futures. Servers turned on and we went parabolic. I recorded tonight’s video on what that did underneath the surface, because the structure is the story now, not the level. Here’s what I cover: → The skew reading that just

Gianni Di Poce bought the dip last Tuesday and got whipsawed out of it after Fed Day. Then he bought it back Thursday, because that is what the model said to do. Two sessions later the S&P and the Dow ripped to new all-time highs and the Nasdaq added over 950 points. He recorded his nightly video on why that low is going to hold, and hold for a long time. His read comes down to what is leading. Consumer discretionary took the top spot last week, tech came storming out of the gates this week, and that sequence is textbook early cycle behavior coming off a bottom. Here is what he covers in the video: → Why he is not getting excited about semiconductors even though they are outperforming again, and what he would rather watch them do for the next several months → The sector he is positioned

https://youtu.be/suLzz5EMhb0 Two competing Iran headlines hit the tape today. Neither one did a thing. Brandon Chapman recorded his nightly recap on why. The market opened squarely into positive gamma with a cushion running down to 740, and from there it ground higher all day without ever giving the bears a foothold. That structure is why every pullback got bought. Five minutes here, ten minutes there, and each one recovered, because buying weakness is exactly what the dealer is obligated to do when the market is positioned like that. Price pinned at 755, broke 756, retested it, then ran at 760 before a $2 billion gamma level stopped it cold at 758.65. Here is what he covers in the video: → The 757/759 call spread he flagged this morning, and where it closed → Why tomorrow’s cushion will be thinner, and the exact volume reading that tells him so → His

https://youtu.be/RHq-Z9PUTLU The bond market broke today. Interest rates are exploding higher. The TLT now sits near the lowest point it has ever traded. One thing can burn this marketplace, and the bond market is it. The S&P 500 closed right at 7511. That number has been the center point of every trade since May 4th. We tested 7350 this week and bounced. Traders immediately called it a bottom. Too much remains unresolved for me to agree. The NASDAQ ran from 27,200 to a high of 28,600. That is a 5% move off the low. It still could not reclaim 29,000. Some of the most ferocious moves you will ever see happen inside a down move. This one reeks of a bear market rally. Here is the part almost nobody caught. The advance decline line stayed negative during yesterday’s 130 point rally in the S&P 500. No fresh money is entering

https://youtu.be/EzOvkei3120 Don here… Blake Young pulled the fundamentals on the home builders today. Toll Brothers now needs 16 months to sell the inventory it used to clear in 13. Their net profit margin fell 15% in a single year. Costs are climbing faster than home prices. Yesterday set the table for it. The Fed held rates steady. The market treated that as bad news and sold off hard. Blake points to Warsh. He intends to fight inflation aggressively back toward 2%. That path runs through selling bonds or raising rates. The selling dropped the S&P 500 almost perfectly into Blake’s buyer zone. It gapped up from 727 and spent today trying to close higher. He is watching 738.50 into the close. A close below that monthly monkey bar puts 727 back in play, then 716 or lower. Housing is where the real opportunity sits. Inventory has climbed against average sales

https://youtu.be/-X7CwZ-D4as The volatility futures sit roughly 20 cents from inverting. That one print would change how I feel about this market substantially. We are not there yet. We are close enough that I want you watching it tonight. Start with the damage. The S&P 500 shed about 130 handles and closed down almost 2%. The Dow took it worse at over 2.3%, and the Russell dropped 2%. The Nasdaq carries the real story. It now sits 11% off its recent highs. That puts it officially in corrective territory. Here is the piece nobody is flagging. The advance decline line still shows rotation. Nobody came in and pummeled 100 stocks today. Capital moved into Netflix, Walmart, and Starbucks. Consumer staples still hold a bid. Traders still have belief. Volatility does not really get started until correlation shows up. We are not home yet. The selling began overseas. South Korea hit multiple

Gianni Di Poce spent the last two weeks warning about downside risk in this market. Today he reversed course. The risk reward has flipped back in favor of the bulls. One observation triggered the shift. S&P futures never took out last Thursday’s low. Markets correct through time instead of price. This tape has been doing exactly that for weeks. The Nasdaq broke down and cut through the mid June lows. The Dow refuses to cooperate with the bearish story. It sits less than 1,000 points from its all-time high. Energy has been the top performing sector three weeks running. That leadership cracked hard this week. Crude oil fell 7.8% yesterday. It dropped another 4.5% today. Gianni traces the whole bullish setup back to that oil break. Dollar strength has been riding on oil prices this entire stretch. Oil pushes rates higher. Higher rates pull capital into the dollar. Falling oil

Brandon Chapman traced today’s entire session back to one number. The SPY opened at 744.91. That price sat directly on the call wall. 745 held 11,500 calls in open interest against 2,000 puts. The market opened at its ceiling. It never pushed through. One strike lower the structure flipped. 740 carried 10,000 puts against 7,900 calls. Negative gamma took over from there. Negative gamma forces dealers to sell into weakness. The selling fed on itself once 740 gave way. Brandon called the downside level during his TheoTRADE session this morning. He told the room to watch 736. Price bottomed at 736.50. The next low printed 736.27. The one after that printed 736. That level held. The tape pinned around 740 into the close. Here is the part that matters for the rest of the week. Friday’s expiration carries 64,000 puts at 740. The call side shows nothing close to it.

https://youtu.be/d6ioTYIWqZo    Blake Young pulled up a Fed report today that has flagged every recession since 1992. It is flashing right now. He calls it the Labor Market Conditions Index. The Kansas City Fed publishes it. You can pull the same chart straight from FRED. The pattern is clean. Every time this index corrects more than half a percent from its peak, it falls at least 2% and crashes through zero. A recession has followed every single time. Here is the part that stopped me. The index peaked in May 2022 at 1.46%. It dropped by that same amount and fell below 0.9 in May 2023. That was the signal. History said a recession should follow. Three years later the market keeps selling off. Labor conditions keep sliding toward negative. The recession still has not shown up. Blake does not read this signal in isolation. He stacks the weak labor