Markets Priced for Peace, Trapped by Reality
https://youtu.be/BcE3H5kIX1Q Kevin Warsh was sworn in to run the Fed today. The bond market immediately repriced the entire rate path. By October, traders see a higher probability of a rate INCREASE than a cut. By January, it’s almost a certainty. That’s a stunning reversal. Warsh was brought in specifically to lower rates. The marketplace sees it the exact opposite way. Here is what the data is screaming in tonight’s weekend update: The 10-year yield nearly cracked 4.7% this week. It was trading 4.2% just a few weeks ago. A break above 4.8% changes the three-year chart entirely. CME Fed Watch shows October’s rate hike probability above 50%, December near 70%, and January as a near certainty. This is not a cut cycle anymore. The bond market is pricing sustained inflation. Oil is sitting at $96 a barrel into a holiday weekend. If the peace deal were real, oil would not