https://youtu.be/VPoSmNy0iEc Goldman Sachs beat earnings estimates by a wide margin this morning. The stock still gapped down at the open and couldn’t recover. Brandon Chapman caught that disconnect immediately, and it’s the setup he’s watching ahead of JP Morgan’s report tomorrow. JP Morgan rallied to $312.75 today, its highest level since February 11th. The problem: volume was thin all session. Citigroup hit a new multi-year high on the same light tape. Brandon’s read is that today’s price action was buyers at the ask, no resistance, no conviction. That kind of move at a higher price just bakes more risk into tomorrow’s number. Here’s what Brandon broke down in tonight’s video: The S&P 500 gapped from 6864 on Friday’s close to 6780 at this morning’s open, driven by Iran ceasefire rhetoric and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. Oil pulled back from an intraday high of $105 to $97 but remains

https://youtu.be/2H4v9Lt1-S4 The S&P 500 closed flat today. Underneath the surface, 90 products in the S&P 100 declined. Broadcom single-handedly held the index together with a 3.5 standard deviation move, closing in on a $2 trillion market cap. Strip that out and the tape is red across the board. I call this the pain trade meeting geopolitical risk. Shorts are getting squeezed in a face-ripping rally, but the volatility market is telling a completely different story. The VVIX is sitting at 108. Anything near 110 is the “get under your desk” zone. Professional traders are refusing to give up their hedges heading into the weekend. Consumer staples got crushed. Walmart dropped nearly 2% and Costco fell 3%. The safety trades that propped up portfolios during the selloff are fading fast. Meanwhile, financials started rolling over right before earnings season begins. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan all report next week.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oN5Lua4e0W0 Blake Young just ran through today’s economic data, and every single number came in ugly. Final GDP printed at 0.5%. Personal income went negative. Unemployment claims rose. Yet U.S. equities rallied. That disconnect tells you everything about where we are right now. The market is trading on ceasefire optimism while the hard data deteriorates underneath it. Blake flagged wholesale inventories climbing to 0.8%, meaning manufacturers and wholesalers are sitting on product they cannot sell. Personal spending is sliding alongside falling income. The 10-year and 30-year bond auctions both saw lower demand at higher rates. The math points one direction. Slowing growth, sticky inflation, and weakening consumers add up to stagflation. Blake’s response is to rotate into utilities as a fixed income substitute. The entire sector was green today, breaking out of a widening pattern while the broader market celebrates on borrowed optimism. He walked through six specific setups in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxHs3jHDDY4 The S&P 500 just ripped 2.4% to the upside. Everyone’s celebrating. The VVIX says they shouldn’t be. The VVIX is the volatility of the VIX itself. It measures what professional traders are actually doing with their hedges. On a day where the market exploded higher, the VVIX only dropped 5%. That tells you something critical. The professional world is not giving up their protection. VIX options traded nearly 1.6 million contracts today. That is enormous volume for a day where the market supposedly just resolved its problems. And here’s what most people are missing about this rally. We went from unchanged on the week to the upper edge of the weekly expected move. The $167 expected move landed almost to the penny. There is nothing unprecedented about where we are right now. The real story is underneath the surface. I faded the financials today with a bearish position in

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rK7HiuaQzPY Gianni Di Poce just flagged something bulls have been waiting months to see. Technology didn’t just lead last week. It rallied hard enough in a single four-day stretch to reclaim its spot as the top-performing sector over the last 52 weeks. The performance spread between energy and technology was almost 10% last week alone. That kind of snap-back matters because tech is notorious for leading out of market bottoms. And right now, Gianni sees conditions lining up for exactly that scenario. The current rally off the March 31st low is now seven days old. That puts it on the verge of being one of the longest sustained rallies we’ve had all year. The late January bounce lasted about seven days. The mid-February rally went eight. This market is holding onto gains better than it has in months. Gianni is also watching a historical pattern that’s about to break in

Oil just ripped 11% overnight and closed at $111. That single data point makes me unable to get bullish on this market by any stretch. We are heading into a three-day weekend with gasoline prices about to explode. Five and six dollar a gallon gas triggers what traders call demand destruction, and it will crush

Blake Young just exposed a major crack in the consumer discretionary rally. Tesla now accounts for 20% of the entire sector, and today’s 2.6% bounce is dragging XLY higher while the actual consumer stocks are falling apart. Remove Tesla from XLY and the sector looks like Nike. Nike just dropped 14% after missing earnings by

Gianni Di Poce just flagged a divergence that changes the playbook for Q2. Stocks dropped to new lows this week. The VIX never confirmed the move. VIX cash and VIX futures both refused to make new highs while the market was making new lows. That disconnect is one of the most reliable signals that downside

Brandon Chapman just identified a volatility signal that preceded last April’s market capitulation. The same signal is flashing right now at the same time of year. Dispersion, measured by DSPX, tracks the gap between the VIX and the individual volatility of S&P 500 components. It dropped to 30 in late March 2025, right before constituent

The S&P 500 just dropped 1.6% on the session and is now approaching a 9% decline from the all-time highs. We are on the doorstep of a full correction. But here is the problem. I don’t feel the fear yet. After 30 years of trading, I know what real capitulation looks like. Volume pumps 10,000