Tech Rally On Suspect Volume

https://youtu.be/goeGTgEgtQ0 The S&P 500 hit a record high today on the back of a 10% pop in Google. Blake Young looked at the tape and spotted something nobody is talking about. The accumulation behind this rally is three standard deviations outside normal, but it is happening on lighter and lighter volume. Even today’s breakout barely cleared 50% of average volume. Blake calls the post earnings response “very suspect.” Instead of chasing tech higher, he is rotating into defensives that are quietly bottoming out. Consumer staples bounced today on real volume, and utilities outperformed alongside them. Money is moving toward safety. Blake walked through specific entries in tonight’s video: Pepsi (PEP) bounced on higher than normal volume with a target near $163 for a 5% to 7% move. Blake likes buying the 150 call for roughly $11 instead of putting $158 on the line for the stock. The 80 delta acts

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Big Tech Earnings Are Cracking

https://youtu.be/KuB09gI2vNE The biggest earnings day of the year just hit the tape. The S&P 500 has an $80 move priced in between now and Friday close. Today’s expected move was $40, and that included the FOMC. Microsoft was bid heavily before failing. Meta is getting its clock cleaned while Google barely holds the market together. One comment could end this rally entirely. If any mega cap mentions reducing AI spending on tomorrow’s conference calls, it is over for this marketplace. Forget bullish or bearish. The only thing that matters now is the expected move and how much of it has actually played out. In tonight’s video, I walk through every mega cap setup heading into Thursday’s open: Microsoft priced a $30 move and only delivered $15. There is plenty of room left to the downside before the conference call. Google priced a $20 move and is almost unchanged. Massive volatility

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The Tech Bubble Is Just Starting

https://youtu.be/sNbb2hP7t4A Stocks finally got the pullback everyone has been begging for. Gianni Di Poce thinks you should buy it. The S&P 500 futures hit a new all-time high overnight before giving back gains from Monday and most of Friday. OpenAI missed revenue and semiconductors dropped 3.6% on the day. None of that changes Gianni’s thesis. He believes tech is going dramatically higher from here. His reasoning is structural. Tech currently makes up just 30 to 33% of the S&P 500, with the Mag 10 names accounting for roughly 40% of the index. Compare that to Taiwan, where tech is 85% of the country’s index. The Netherlands sits above 50%. Historical bubbles, from railroads to energy, all saw their dominant themes exceed 50% of the index before peaking. Gianni expects tech to eventually become 60 to 80% of the US market. Tonight’s video lays out the immediate setup driving his call:

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This Rally Has an Expiration Date

https://youtu.be/TpSVlUpwu4Q Brandon Chapman just laid out why today’s market strength is borrowed time. Five Mag Seven names report Wednesday. The Fed announces the same day. The options market is sending a warning that price charts completely miss. Brandon is drawing a direct parallel to last October 29th. That marked the final peak before a 10% S&P 500 correction and a 20% correction in NVIDIA. The setup is nearly identical. The VIX is artificially suppressed as institutions pile into a dangerously crowded dispersion trade. That trade has until Wednesday to play out. Then the math reverses. In tonight’s video, Brandon walks through what the options tape is showing right now: 75,000 SPY put contracts hit in a single trade today, targeting the May 8th expiration. 10,000 SMH put contracts printed across three trades within one second of each other. 15,000 XLF put contracts placed on Financials as a downside hedge. 9,600

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Peace Sells are you Buying it?

https://youtu.be/30TAwCwWLc0 The S&P 500 finished the week nominally higher. The advance/decline line told a completely different story. Market breadth is broken right now. Fewer than a handful of stocks are driving the entire rally, and the engine behind it is a gamma squeeze, not fundamentals. In tonight’s video, I walk through exactly what’s happening under the hood: SPX and SPDR S&P options combined for 15 million contracts today alone. Add Nvidia’s 7 million, and just three products accounted for over a quarter of all options market volume. Broadcom hit the upper edge of its expected move four consecutive weeks, with nearly three standard deviation moves each time. The options market is mispricing forward risk. AMD breached its expected move four straight weeks. This week’s move came in at nearly three and a half standard deviations. Volatility futures finished higher today even as markets rallied. The S&P 500’s expected move for

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The Market’s Lying to You

https://youtu.be/wIMyhS3U1YA The S&P 500 looks fine on the surface. Blake Young just showed exactly why it isn’t. In today’s video, Blake breaks down why the advance/decline number is misleading. 52 stocks are up, 49 are down. Balanced, right? Look at the capital flows and the story changes fast. $1.7 billion is flowing into the stocks going up. $6 billion is flowing out of the stocks going down. That is a four-to-one ratio at the exact moment the market is testing a key resistance level. Blake calls it profit-taking combined with short positioning. Not just closing longs. Actively setting up bearish trades at this level. Add to that: the Chaikin money flow is past two standard deviations, meaning all the buyers that can buy have already bought. Volume has been shrinking throughout this entire rally. And today’s candle is forming a hanging man right at the 0% level of the monthly

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Big Tech Is a Lie

https://youtu.be/788j17sQz-c The Nasdaq ripped 2% today and Broadcom surged 5%. It looks like a bull market. It is not. The S&P 500 is flat on the week. Today’s move just recovered Tuesday’s losses. Meanwhile, the advance/decline line dropped all session. 85 out of 100 S&P 100 names opened higher this morning. By the close, breadth had deteriorated the entire day while a handful of tech stocks carried the index. That divergence matters. Here is what actually concerns me heading into Thursday and Friday.  The S&P 500 has a $111 expected move this week. We have used almost none of it. Every 0DTE contract from Monday rolled into Tuesday, Tuesday rolled into Wednesday, and now hundreds of thousands of contracts are stacked on the same strikes at 5,271.25.  When the market sits still, gamma risk accumulates. Thursday and Friday, that risk gets released. Here is what I walked through in tonight’s

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NASDAQ Just Broke Its 8-Month Base

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eojt15btTPY The NASDAQ just broke out of an 8-month rectangle pattern. Gianni Di Poce says this is a very significant move and we are still early in the rally. The base measured roughly 3,000 points. A larger base produces a larger move higher, and Gianni is now targeting 29,000 to 30,000 on the NASDAQ in a matter of months. The Trinity Trade has been cashing in on the exact setups feeding this breakout. Gianni booked 51% gains on Marvell Technology in three weeks and closed AMD calls 170% higher last week. Technology just hit a new all-time high and reclaimed the top spot as the strongest performing sector on the year. Here is what Gianni broke down in tonight’s video: The NASDAQ built a 3,000-point base over eight months and is now breaking above it, placing this rally in its early innings with 29,000 to 30,000 as the conservative upside

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Gamma Gone Wild

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84wZh7hLDhU The market just logged the largest gamma squeeze I have ever seen. The S&P 500 moved 300 points this week against a $120 expected move. That adds up to almost three standard deviations and the third consecutive weekly breach to the upside. I have recorded expected moves in the SPX all the way back to 2017. Three consecutive breaches in the same direction is completely unheard of in my data. Microsoft tells the story best. The stock opened the week at $370 with an $11 expected move and closed at $422 for a 4.74 sigma move. In tonight’s video, I walk through the data driving the squeeze: The SPX traded 6 million option contracts today with calls slightly outnumbering puts. Institutions normally buy puts as hedges in this product, so this flip tells me retail is piling into call options. Every SPX strike below 7175 held over 100,000 contracts

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NASDAQ Fails Where S&P Wins

https://youtu.be/R4TS0LmCWNQ The S&P 500 just printed another record high today. The NASDAQ failed at resistance and closed back inside the level. Blake Young says that split tape is telling you exactly where to position for the rest of the year. He expects US equities to trade flat rather than trend from here. That means 2% to 5% swings in both directions without much real progress. The opportunity is not in chasing tech into the overbought zone. Blake is rotating into three specific sectors getting fresh buy signals today. Energy, basic materials, and consumer staples are his focus. Crude is trying to close back above the 0% level, and Blake sees a path to $107 per barrel if that breakout holds. Even if oil stalls, energy stocks do not need higher crude to stabilize and grind higher. Here are the exact short put setups Blake walked through in tonight’s video: ExxonMobil

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