Fed Hawkish In 2019?
Fed Hawkish - FOMC Minutes FOMC Minutes from the September 25th to 26th meeting were released at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. The Minutes stated, “Participants generally anticipated that further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would most likely be consistent with a sustained economic expansion, strong labor market conditions, and inflation…
U.S. Treasuries - Where Will They Go?
U.S. Treasuries - Fundamentals Of The Treasury Market The long bond sold off sharply from the end of August until September. It has been steady in October. The question is where it moves next. Personally, I look at the bond market as a signal of the economy. From that, I use my opinion of the economy…
Stocks Rally & Netflix Spikes On Great Earnings
Stocks Rally - Finally The stock market finally skyrocketed like I expected on Tuesday. Stocks were intensely oversold heading into the day. Short term indicators signaled stocks should burst higher soon. The performance over the next 12 months is still dependent on the fundamentals. The S&P 500 increased 2.15%, the Nasdaq increased 2.89%, and the…
Retail Sales Report - 5% Year Over Year Control Group
Retail Sales Report - Decent Retail Sales Growth The September retail sales report was controversial in that both the bulls and the bears used it to support their narratives. With stocks falling on Monday, the bears were gaining confidence and ready to declare another victory. I disagree with the bears. I think this was a…
Stocks Decline On Monday Even Though They Are Oversold
Stocks Decline Again Surprisingly, stocks fell on Monday. The market is very oversold which usually implies a bull run is coming. I’m not saying stocks should hit a new high. But I think a 2% to 3% recovery this week is in the cards unless there’s a negative catalyst. The S&P 500 14 day relative…
Trade War - Negative Impacts
Trade War - Soybean Inspections It’s very important to avoid listening to cynics who claim soybeans aren’t important. They are America’s largest export to China. The trade war between China and American appears to be getting worse. It’s important to follow this commodity closely. America has a mixed economy while China has a command economy.…
Modest Stocks Rebound Ends A Terrible Week
Modest Stocks Rebound - A Mini Recovery The stock market recovered on Friday after having two terrible days. In bull markets stocks recover slowly. In bear markets stocks recover quickly and then lose more value even quicker. Fiercest rallies are in bear markets because traders fall into the trap of thinking the bear market is…
Stocks Bounce Usually After A Decline Like This
Stocks Bounce - Time To Buy Stocks Sentiment on stocks has shifted so quickly the S&P 500 went from being overbought to oversold in a few trading days. The CNN Fear and Greed index bottomed at 6 out of 100 which signals extreme fear. That doesn’t mean stocks will increase over the next 12 months.…
Stocks Oversold At Extremes
Stocks Oversold - Another Down Day The stock market had another weak trading session on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 2.06% and the Russell 2000 fell 1.91%. On the bright side, some of the hardest hit groups outperformed. The Nasdaq only fell 1.25%. EEM emerging markets ETF fell 1.01%. Facebook stock rose 1.3%. I’m not…
S&P 500 Falls The Most Since February | Nasdaq 100 Falls 4.44%
S&P 500 Falls - Big Correction On Wednesday The stock market cratered on Wednesday. The Dow fell 3.16%, the Nasdaq fell 4.08%, the Russell 2000 fell 2.86%, and the S&P 500 fell 3.29%. You can see the daily changes in all four indexes in the charts below. This was the biggest decline since February. There…
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